ClawHub

Polymarket Multi Source Estimator

v1.1.4

Trade prediction markets using LLM probability estimation enriched with 10+ real-time data sources (news, economic data, sports odds, political polling, and...

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by@mibayy
MIT-0
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LicenseMIT-0 · Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.
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Purpose & Capability
Name/description, SKILL.md, clawhub.json, and the Python code align: a prediction-market trading estimator that needs a trading API key (SIMMER_API_KEY) and an LLM key (LLM_API_KEY). Optional API keys correspond to the listed data sources. Required pip packages (simmer-sdk, requests) are appropriate for the functionality.
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Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs the agent to fetch many external public data sources, build context, call an LLM, compare estimates to market prices, and trade via Simmer. This matches the code you shipped. Caveats: the skill makes outbound HTTP requests to data APIs and to whatever LLM endpoint you configure (default OpenRouter). That means market questions + gathered public context will be transmitted off-host to the chosen LLM provider. The SKILL.md states only public context is sent, but you should verify the full source (the file was truncated in the provided snippet) to confirm no accidental inclusion of other environment values or secrets in LLM payloads.
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Install Mechanism
No install script is included; the registry metadata lists pip dependencies (simmer-sdk, requests). Using pip is normal here, but pip-installed packages run arbitrary Python code on install—standard risk. There are no downloads from unknown URLs or archive extracts declared.
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Credentials
Only two required env vars are declared (SIMMER_API_KEY and LLM_API_KEY), which is proportionate for a trading bot that calls an external LLM. Several optional API keys for public-data providers are sensible. Reminder: both required vars are sensitive—SIMMER_API_KEY grants ability to place trades via the Simmer SDK, and LLM_API_KEY allows sending data to an external model. Ensure the SIMMER_API_KEY scope/permissions are restricted and use paper mode for testing.
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Persistence & Privilege
The skill is an automaton scheduled every 5 minutes (clawhub.json cron and SKILL.md). always:false (default) so it is not force-included in every agent, but managed scheduling + autonomous invocation means it can run and place trades without manual steps if configured with live credentials. This is expected for a trading bot, but you should be deliberate about enabling --live and where the skill runs.
Assessment
This skill looks coherent for its purpose, but it is a live-capable trading bot and will transmit market questions + gathered public context to whichever LLM endpoint you configure. Before installing: (1) review the full multi_source_estimator.py (the provided snippet was truncated) to confirm no unexpected I/O or hidden endpoints; (2) run in dry-run/sim mode initially and test locally; (3) use paper/sim TRADING_VENUE and avoid setting --live until you’re confident; (4) limit the SIMMER_API_KEY to the minimum permissions possible and consider using a test key; (5) set LLM_API_URL to a provider you trust (self-hosted if privacy is a concern); (6) only provide optional data-source API keys you trust and rotate keys after testing; (7) run the code in an isolated environment and monitor outbound traffic/logs. If you want higher confidence, provide the complete (untruncated) source for review or run a static audit on the full file.

Like a lobster shell, security has layers — review code before you run it.

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License

MIT-0
Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.
Termshttps://spdx.org/licenses/MIT-0.html

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