Carrier Reliability Signal

30-day carrier on-time performance prediction for any carrier and trade lane via 5-factor model

kynto2001-ctrl@kynto2001-ctrl

Install

openclaw skills install @kynto2001-ctrl/carrier-reliability

carrier-reliability

What It Does

Predicts a carrier's on-time performance for a specific trade lane over the next 30 days using a 5-factor scoring model: Sea-Intelligence baseline (30%), AISstream schedule deviation (25%), destination berth congestion (20%), blank sailing probability (15%), and Freightos FBX rate volatility (10%).

Returns a reliability score (0-100), reliability level, trend direction, named action signal, alternative carrier options, and cost of inaction if you do not rebook.

At probability above 0.75, the REBOOK_NOW signal fires.

When to Use

Before booking ocean freight on a specific carrier and trade lane
When evaluating whether to rebook to an alternative carrier
When blank sailing risk is elevated and you need to compare options
For daily monitoring of top carriers across your core trade lanes

How to Use

GET https://datasig.ai/signals/carrier-reliability?carrier=MSC&origin=CNSHA&destination=USSAV

Parameters:

carrier — MSC, MAERSK, CMACGM, HAPAG, EVERGREEN, COSCO, ONE, ZIM, YANGMING
origin — CNSHA, CNYTN, CNNGB, CNQIN, KRPUS
destination — USLAX, USLGB, USOAK, USSEA, USSAV, USNYK

Example Response

json

{
  "signal": "BOOK_WITH_CONFIDENCE",
  "carrier": "MSC",
  "trade_lane": "CNSHA→USSAV",
  "reliability_score": 78,
  "reliability_level": "MEDIUM",
  "trend": "improving",
  "urgency": "LOW",
  "action_window": "monitor",
  "alternative_carriers": [
    { "carrier": "GEMINI", "reliability_score": 87 },
    { "carrier": "HAPAG", "reliability_score": 79 }
  ],
  "cost_of_inaction": "If reliability drops below 65: est. $500-2,000/container rebooking fees",
  "confidence": 0.78,
  "n_factors_available": 4
}

Signal Vocabulary

BOOK_WITH_CONFIDENCE — score >= 75, trend stable or improving
MONITOR_SCHEDULE — score 60-74, or trending down
CONSIDER_ALTERNATIVES — score 50-59
REBOOK_NOW — score < 50, or blank sailing prob > 0.75

Pricing

$0.50/call — reliability score + signal only (base tier)
$2.00/call — full 30-day projection with factor breakdown, alternative carriers, and cost of inaction (Early adopter: $1.40 through 2026-09-21)

All via x402 micropayment on Base mainnet (USDC).

Accuracy Ledger

Public accuracy tracking at https://datasig.ai/accuracy/stats