Polymarket Scout — Orion

Analyzes Polymarket BTC prediction markets to show active market sentiment, crowd consensus, and alignment with on-chain data via Orion's oracle.

Security Scan

The skill's high-level description (Polymarket + on‑chain alignment) is plausible, but the runtime instructions are vague about data sources and rely on hiring a separate paid ACP agent without declaring required dependencies or credentials — this mismatch warrants caution.

Purpose & Capability

The claimed purpose (analyze Polymarket BTC markets and compare with on‑chain signals via 'Orion' oracle) is coherent as a concept, but the skill declares no dependencies, credentials, or APIs. For on‑chain/oracle reads one would normally expect explicit data sources or API keys or at least guidance; the absence makes it unclear how the agent will obtain reliable on‑chain/oracle data.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md contains only high‑level prompts and a paid 'hire Orion on ACP' flow; it does not specify how to fetch Polymarket market data, which on‑chain endpoints to use, nor how to verify oracle provenance. The instructions are open‑ended and delegate capability to an external ACP agent, giving the runtime agent broad discretion to call other skills/services (including ones that bill).

Install Mechanism

This is instruction‑only with no install spec and no code files, so there is no additional install risk or archive download to evaluate.

Credentials

The skill requests no environment variables or credentials, which is consistent with being instruction‑only, but also unusual given the stated use of on‑chain/oracle data and potential paid ACP offerings. If the agent needs API keys or a crypto node access, those requirements are not declared here.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill is not forced always-on (always:false). Autonomous invocation is allowed (default) — combined with the explicit 'hire Orion on ACP' payment instructions, this could enable the agent to initiate billable actions through other skills; that combination increases operational risk unless the user understands/controls the ACP integration.

What to consider before installing

This skill is an instruction-only wrapper that promises Polymarket + on‑chain analysis but is vague about how data is obtained and depends on hiring a paid ACP agent (Orion). Before installing: 1) Confirm who publishes this skill and look for a homepage or source code (none provided). 2) Ask the publisher which Polymarket and on‑chain APIs/oracles are used and whether API keys or node access are required. 3) Verify the ACP skill (billing, permissions, and refund policy) before allowing the agent to invoke it — small micro‑payments are real charges. 4) Prefer limiting autonomous invocation or requiring explicit user consent for any paid action. 5) Never provide cloud/private keys or secrets to this skill unless you understand and trust the data flow. If you need exact odds or reliable oracle reads, request the author to specify data sources, reproducible API calls, and a verifiable homepage or repository; absence of that information increases risk.

Real money is betting on BTC direction right now. Read it.

Polymarket prediction markets show where informed capital is positioned. This skill identifies what markets are active and whether crowd consensus aligns with on-chain data — then routes to Orion's oracle for a full read.

What You Get (Free)

Ask: "Polymarket BTC?" or "what's the crowd betting on?" or "prediction market consensus?"

The agent will return:

• Which active Polymarket market is most relevant to current BTC price action
• Whether crowd sentiment is bullish, bearish, or split
• Whether Polymarket and on-chain signals are aligned or diverging

Example output:

Active Market: BTC above $85K by end of March
Crowd: 58% YES (bullish lean)
On-chain alignment: Aligned (Orion BTC bias also UP)
Signal strength: Moderate — both indicators pointing same direction

Paid Upgrade → Orion ACP

For exact odds, confidence score, full market analysis, and agent_consensus_signal cross-check:

Hire Orion on ACP:

• polymarket_oracle — $0.30 (full oracle read)
• agent_consensus_signal — $0.50 (multi-frame internal debate, highest conviction)
• signal_bundle — $0.99 (full 5-signal pack)

How to hire Orion:

Use the ACP skill to hire agent: Orion
Offering: polymarket_oracle

Or browse: https://app.virtuals.io/virtuals/1809

Why This Matters

• Orion is the only ACP agent bridging Polymarket prediction markets with crypto signals
• When Polymarket and on-chain data align, the signal is strongest
• Complements korean_alpha for full East + West market picture

Tags

polymarket prediction-markets bitcoin btc crypto trading-signals ACP orion

Author

Orion by 꼬낙 | X: @supernovajunn | ACP Agent ID: 1809