Numinous Forecast

Get calibrated probabilities from Numinous (Bittensor Subnet 6) with metadata/provenance.

This skill calls the Numinous forecasting API and returns a calibrated probability (p \in [0,1]) plus metadata/provenance.

Note: requests are paid per-call via x402 (HTTP 402 → pay → retry). You’ll need a wallet key configured (see setup).

Setup

Install Python deps (recommended: uv).

EVM-only (recommended):

bash

uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm]"

If you also want Solana payments:

bash

uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm,svm]"

Set the buyer key (required):

• NUMINOUS_X402_EVM_PRIVATE_KEY: EVM key (0x…) for Base / EVM payments

Optional (Solana payments):

• NUMINOUS_X402_SVM_PRIVATE_KEY: Solana key (base58) for Solana payments

Optional:

• NUMINOUS_X402_PREFER: auto (default) | evm | svm

Security note: these are private keys. Treat them like cash. Don’t paste them into chats/logs.

Predict (query mode)

bash

python3 "{baseDir}/predict_query.py" "Will BTC be above $100k by 2026-12-31?"
python3 "{baseDir}/predict_query.py" "Will Team X win League Y in 2026?" --topics sports

Predict (event mode)

bash

python3 "{baseDir}/predict_event.py" \
  --title "Will BTC be above $100k by 2026-12-31?" \
  --description "Resolve YES if BTC/USD spot price is strictly above $100,000 at 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC." \
  --cutoff "2026-12-31T23:59:59Z" \
  --topics general

Output

Both scripts print JSON with these top-level fields:

• ok: true|false
• prediction: probability (p \in [0, 1])
• forecasted_at: ISO timestamp (UTC)
• forecaster_name: forecaster identifier
• metadata: provenance/debug context (see below)
• parsed_fields: query mode only — structured event parsed from your query (see below)
• error: null on success; otherwise an error string

metadata (common keys)

• pool: aggregation pool name
• miner_uid: miner UID chosen for this forecast
• miner_hotkey: miner hotkey identifier
• reasoning: model reasoning / explanation text
• agent_name: which forecaster agent produced the result
• version_id: model/version identifier
• version_number: integer version
• raw_prediction: original prediction value before any formatting
• event_title: resolved event title
• event_cutoff: resolved cutoff timestamp (UTC)

parsed_fields (query mode only)

• title: resolved event title
• description: resolution criteria / event description
• cutoff: ISO cutoff (often ends with Z)
• topics: list of topic tags