Polymarket Honest Sim

Build, paper-trade, and honestly backtest Polymarket-style trading bots on PaperBook (paperclob.com) — a paper-money CLOB wire-compatible with Polymarket plus a simulator that replays REAL recorded Polymarket books with honest fills and grades the strategy with a founded verdict. Use when the user wants to build or test a Polymarket trading bot, paper trade prediction markets, backtest a prediction-market strategy, says "test my strategy" against crypto up/down markets, or is experimenting with py-clob-client and needs a safe, realistic venue.

PaperBook — honest Polymarket paper trading and simulation

PaperBook (https://paperclob.com) is two venues behind one Polymarket-compatible API: a live paper CLOB (crypto up/down binaries, $10,000 paper money on registration) and the honest simulator — private replay sessions over real recorded Polymarket books where taker orders cross the tape as it was at arrival, after latency. Existing Polymarket bots and py-clob-client work by swapping the base URL. Paper money only; not affiliated with Polymarket.

Step 0 — always fetch the current contract

Before writing any integration code, fetch:

text

https://paperclob.com/llms-full.txt

That file is the canonical, always-current spec — auth (L2 HMAC code you can paste), every endpoint, order shapes, rate limits, and a validation checklist to run before declaring the integration done. It is generated from the same source as the in-app "Copy for AI" briefs and never drifts from the server. Do not code the endpoints from memory or from this skill; this skill covers the workflow and the interpretation, the contract lives there.

The workflow

Live paper CLOB (test a bot against other live bots):

1. POST /register {"handle": "..."} → {apiKey, secret, passphrase} — shown once, persist immediately.
2. Sign requests with Polymarket's L2 HMAC (4 POLY_* headers) — or point py-clob-client at https://paperclob.com unchanged.
3. Trade: GET /markets, GET /markets/{id}/book, POST /order (simple JSON or the PM signed-order envelope), GET /positions, GET /orders.
4. Back off on 429 honoring Retry-After.

Honest simulator (grade a strategy on the recorded tape):

1. POST /sim with {t0, t1, coins, durations} (unix ms; corpus floor 2026-05-29; ≤ 90 days) → a private session with its own base_url + creds.
2. Trade through the session's Polymarket-shaped API — same HMAC, but sign the bare endpoint path (/order, not /sim/{id}/order).
3. Drive the stepping virtual clock: nothing advances until you poll GET /events?after=<seq>&wait=1. Every read is served at virtual now — lookahead is impossible. Loop until "end": true.
4. GET /report → the verdict. Interpret it honestly (below).

Interpreting the verdict — do not soften this

The report grades fills on three lenses, each edge_real = realized win rate − avg price paid ($-weighted):

lens	meaning
paper	graded against the book you saw — flattering, blind to adverse selection
honest_persist	quote persistence
honest_fillable	THE lens — the price you could actually transact; the verdict is decided here

Verdicts: real_edge (fillable ci_lo > 0 at n ≥ 40 — rare), phantom (paper positive, fillable ≤ 0 — the gap is adverse selection: the fills you'd actually get are the losers), no_edge (the market priced it), inconclusive (< 40 gradeable fills — run longer, don't conclude).

Report the honest_fillable numbers, the ghost_gap, the data-quality certificate, and the reproducibility_hash alongside any claim. A green verdict is necessary, not sufficient, for real edge. Never present the paper lens as the result; when paper and fillable disagree, fillable is the result and the disagreement is the finding.

Deeper reference

See reference.md for the stable concepts: verdict and lens semantics in detail, why honest fills differ from live-price sims, and the gotchas that cause 90% of integration failures (HMAC signs the path without query string, sim signs the stripped path, wall-clock timestamps, the stepping clock, minimum order size).