Orcatrace

Polymarket intelligence for AI agents — track smart money, see what others miss. Real-time prediction-market signals across 42K markets: quality-gated repricings with order-book microstructure, tracked-whale entries annotated with each wallet's hold-to-resolution calibration (follow/fade), and AI-detected predetermined-outcome markets — one unified feed. Plus the 4-hourly Intelligence Digest, markets resolving soon, whale calibration tables, and $1 single-market deep research. Pay-per-call via x402 (USDC on Base only); no accounts, no API keys. Free /v1/index, /v1/pulse, /v1/digest/brief, /v1/sample, and /v1/track-record (a verifiable whale scorecard) expose the funnel and every paid shape before you pay.

OrcaTrace — Polymarket Intelligence for AI Agents

API at https://api.orcatrace.dev (website https://orcatrace.dev). Track smart money, see what others miss. OrcaTrace serves real-time Polymarket signals across 42K markets in one unified, index-polled feed: quality-gated movers (genuine repricings, noise-filtered, vol >= $10k & depth >= $2.5k, with order-book microstructure), tracked-whale entries (each annotated with that wallet's hold-to-resolution calibration — a follow/fade/neutral label from resolved, on-chain-auditable positions), and AI-detected predetermined markets (outcome already exists in definitive form). On top of the feed it produces the 4-hourly Intelligence Digest, lists markets resolving soon, publishes a whale calibration table, and runs on-demand $1 single-market deep research. Strictly pay-per-call via x402 — no accounts, no API keys, no bundles.

OrcaTrace is the Polymarket-intelligence product spun out of moltalyzer. The old paths /api/polymarket/* on api.moltalyzer.xyz 308-redirect here — point new integrations at api.orcatrace.dev.

Free endpoints (no auth, no payment)

Poll the free feeds to detect new items and learn every paid response shape before paying. /v1/sample returns static samples of every paid shape, explicitly labelled, so it is safe for shape-testing without implying live data. /v1/track-record is the verifiable free proof behind paid /v1/whales — it publishes full public wallet addresses so you can cross-check every claim on Polymarket before paying. All free endpoints are rate-limited 5/min per IP.

Method	Path	Rate limit	Description
GET	/v1/index	5/min	Poll target — current feed index, totalToday, todayByType, and latest digest pointer (~10min cadence), so agents detect new items without paying
GET	/v1/pulse	5/min	Top-3 Polymarket repricings (24h, noise-filtered) plus a digest teaser — the hook
GET	/v1/digest/brief	5/min	Intelligence Digest teaser: title + summary, no analysis. Full digest at GET /v1/digest ($0.10)
GET	/v1/sample	5/min	Static samples of every paid response shape (signal, whales, digest), explicitly labelled. Learn the contract before paying
GET	/v1/track-record	5/min	Verifiable whale-calibration scorecard — the free proof behind paid /v1/whales: aggregate hold-to-resolution win rate, follow/fade ROI, per-odds-band breakdown, and top wallets with full public addresses. Cross-check any wallet on-chain before paying

bash

curl https://api.orcatrace.dev/v1/track-record

Paid endpoints (x402 V2, USDC on Base only, per-call)

Each paid call is a flat price per call, settled per call via x402. Networks: Base Mainnet only (eip155:8453). Two settlement patterns apply (see notes below the table).

Method	Path	Price	Description
GET	/v1/latest	$0.01	Most recent Polymarket feed item — mover, whale entry (with calibration), or predetermined signal. Same shape as /v1/signal without ?index
GET	/v1/signal?index=N	$0.01	One feed item: quality-gated mover (+order-book microstructure), whale entry (named whale, +calibration), or predetermined signal. ?index=N for a specific item, omit for latest
GET	/v1/signals?since=N&type=mover	$0.03	Batch feed items (up to 20). Poll GET /v1/index (free), then ?since=N for new items; filter with &type=mover|whale_entry|predetermined
GET	/v1/resolving?withinHours=24	$0.02	Markets resolving within ?withinHours (1-72): odds, contested-vs-converged, liquidity, and order-book microstructure. Mechanical short-interval markets excluded by default (?includeNoise=1)
GET	/v1/whales	$0.05	Whale calibration table: per-wallet hold-to-resolution win rates by odds band, mirror/fade ROI, and follow/fade labels (min 30 resolved entries). Free proof: GET /v1/track-record
GET	/v1/digest	$0.10	Full 4-hourly Intelligence Digest: what repriced and why across 42K markets — moves, whale positioning through calibration, predetermined signals, international news context. Synthesized analysis, not raw data
GET	/v1/digest/history?hours=24&limit=6	$0.05	Historical Intelligence Digests (up to 7 days, 4h cadence) — track how prediction-market narratives evolved
GET	/v1/research?market=<slug>	$1.00	Single-market deep-dive: 7-day price action + live order book + tracked-whale positioning with calibration + related news, synthesized into a thesis with risks and an actionable bottom line. Generated on demand (10-60s), cached 30 min

Params. /v1/signal: index (integer, omit for latest). /v1/signals: since (integer, poll cursor), count (integer 1-20, default 10), type (mover, whale_entry, or predetermined). /v1/resolving: withinHours (integer 1-72, default 24), minLiquidity (number >=1000, default 5000), includeNoise (set to 1 to include mechanical short-interval markets). /v1/digest/history: hours (integer 1-168, default 24), limit (integer 1-42, default 6). /v1/research: market (Polymarket market slug, required — from polymarket.com/market/<slug> or our feed items). All prices are USD, settled as USDC (6 decimals) on Base.

Settlement patterns — never charged for nothing

• Compute-first / settle-after (DB reads: latest, signal, signals, digest, digest/history) — computed first, settled after; you are never charged for an error.
• /v1/digest never serves stale data — a digest older than 6 hours is not sold: the route returns 503 (no charge) rather than serving stale paid intelligence.
• Settle-early with a GUARANTEED refund (proxied compute: resolving, whales, research) — these settle early to dispatch the compute, but are guaranteed: if OrcaTrace charges you and cannot deliver a 2xx result, the payment is automatically refunded (a rail-tagged RefundRequest is queued and issued off the public edge).

Paying (x402)

Paid routes settle per call via x402 V2. The only accepted rail is USDC on Base Mainnet (eip155:8453) — no other network. No account, no signup, no API key.

Pay flow:

1. Call the paid route with no payment → receive HTTP 402. The x402 V2 PaymentRequirements ride in the base64 PAYMENT-REQUIRED header; the JSON body mirrors the price + accepts.
2. Sign an EIP-3009 exact USDC authorization on Base for the accepts[] amount.
3. Retry the same request with the payment in the PAYMENT-SIGNATURE (V2) or X-PAYMENT (legacy) header.

bash

# 1. Probe for the 402 challenge (price + accepts):
curl -i "https://api.orcatrace.dev/v1/whales"
# → HTTP/1.1 402 Payment Required, PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (base64 requirements)

# 2. Sign + retry with a stock x402 client (handles the whole flow):

typescript

import { wrapFetchWithPayment } from "@x402/fetch";
import { createWalletClient, http } from "viem";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";
import { base } from "viem/chains";

const account = privateKeyToAccount(process.env.PRIVATE_KEY as `0x${string}`);
const wallet = createWalletClient({ account, chain: base, transport: http() });
const fetchWithPay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, wallet); // signs EIP-3009 on 402, retries

// $0.05 — whale calibration table (free proof: /v1/track-record):
const whales = await fetchWithPay(
  "https://api.orcatrace.dev/v1/whales",
).then((r) => r.json());
// whales.data.wallets[] (pseudonym, wallet, resolved, winRate, fadeRoi, label)

// $1.00 — single-market deep research (guaranteed refund on non-delivery):
const research = await fetchWithPay(
  "https://api.orcatrace.dev/v1/research?market=next-us-iran-meeting-switzerland",
).then((r) => r.json());

Stock x402 clients (@x402/fetch, @x402/axios, python x402) do the 402 → sign → retry automatically. Discover the machine-readable route + price catalog at /.well-known/x402.

Free funnel

Try the whole product for free before you pay. Poll /v1/index (5/min) to detect new feed items on their ~10min cadence; read /v1/pulse (5/min) for the top-3 24h movers + digest teaser, /v1/digest/brief (5/min) for the digest title + summary; hit /v1/sample (5/min) for static samples of every paid response shape to learn the exact contract before spending. /v1/track-record (5/min) is the verifiable whale scorecard with full public wallet addresses — the free proof behind paid /v1/whales, so you can audit every calibration claim on Polymarket before paying a cent. Feed items and digests carry createdAt provenance so you always know how fresh the data is.

Machine discovery

Path	What
/llms.txt	This doc (concise)
/llms-full.txt	Extended agent doc
/openapi.json	OpenAPI 3.1 spec
/discovery	Discovery JSON (free/paid endpoint listing + terms pointer)
/.well-known/x402	x402 payment manifest (route + price catalog)
/.well-known/agent-card.json	A2A agent card
/terms.txt	Terms of Service

Terms: https://api.orcatrace.dev/terms.txt

Disclaimer: Polymarket intelligence aggregated from public prediction-market data and LLM-synthesized; informational only, provided as-is without warranty. Whale calibration measures entries held to resolution, not trader P&L (exits are not tracked) — not financial advice. Digest and research analysis is model-generated and may be imperfect — every response carries createdAt provenance so you can judge freshness.