Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine

Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly c...

The complete Argus strategy for finding and exploiting edge in crypto prediction markets.

Core Formula

Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (<30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds

Strategy Rules

Freshness Guard

• Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
• Prioritize markets <30 min old (primary window)
• Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%

Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)

TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)

Asset Calibration

Asset	TA Reliability	Bias	Min Score
BTC	0.75	Neutral	±3
ETH	0.80	UP+0.05	±2
SOL	0.90	UP+0.05	±1
XRP	0.70	UP+0.08	±2

Usage

Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now

Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market

Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing

Battle-Tested

Derived from 100+ live Polymarket bets. 25 documented lessons (L001–L025).