Betting

Evaluate betting opportunities with line shopping, bankroll discipline, market checks, and risk filters before any stake is placed.

Security Scan

The skill's requests and instructions are coherent with a betting-analysis helper: it stores lightweight betting memory in ~/betting/, requires no credentials or installs, and includes explicit limits on what not to store.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (betting analysis, line shopping, sizing rules) align with the instructions and supporting files. Declared config path (~/betting/) and files (memory, tickets, notes) are consistent with a tracking/analysis skill and there are no unrelated env vars, binaries, or external services required.

Instruction Scope

All runtime instructions are prose-only and confined to analyzing markets and creating/reading files under ~/betting/. The skill explicitly says it will only fetch live odds/news when the user provides data or explicitly requests it. This is reasonable, but the skill does direct the agent to create and persist files in the user's home directory — users should be aware these files will be written to disk and may contain personal preferences or behavioral notes if saved.

Install Mechanism

Instruction-only skill with no install spec, no downloaded code, and no required binaries. Lowest-risk install posture.

Credentials

No required environment variables, credentials, or config paths beyond the declared ~/betting/ directory. The skill explicitly forbids storing credentials, balances, KYC or other sensitive account info in memory. Requested access is proportional to its stated purpose.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill persists analysis and preferences in ~/betting/, which is reasonable for its function. It does not request always:true and does not ask for elevated system privileges. Consider that persistent notes could leak sensitive user habits if the user intentionally stores such info; the skill's documentation tells the agent not to store secrets.

Assessment

This skill appears to do what it says: disciplined betting analysis with on-disk notes in ~/betting/. Before installing, note that it will create and update files in your home directory — review and manage that folder (permissions, backups, deletion) if you care about privacy. The skill does not request API keys or other credentials and explicitly warns not to store sensitive account or KYC data; don't save passwords, balances, or account tokens in the memory files. Also ensure you comply with local gambling laws and that you meet age/jurisdiction requirements before using the skill.

When to Use

Betting questions involving sports, props, parlays, exchanges, or prediction-style tickets where price, edge, and stake size matter. Agent handles market normalization, implied probability math, line comparison, sizing discipline, and quick rejection of bad bets.

Architecture

Memory lives in ~/betting/. If ~/betting/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

~/betting/
├── memory.md        # Preferences, books, and activation rules
├── tickets.md       # Active or reviewed bets and follow-ups
├── market-notes.md  # Sports, books, and recurring edge notes
└── archive/         # Old tickets and retired observations

Data Storage

• ~/betting/memory.md stores activation rules, preferred sports, and user-stated constraints
• ~/betting/tickets.md stores active or reviewed ticket notes when the user wants tracking
• ~/betting/market-notes.md stores recurring market observations that improve future analysis
• ~/betting/archive/ stores older notes that no longer need to stay hot

Quick Reference

Topic	File
Setup guide	setup.md
Memory template	memory-template.md
Clean Ticket Protocol	workflow.md
Market integrity checks	market-checks.md
Bankroll and sizing rules	sizing.md
Reusable ticket memo	ticket-template.md
Fast rejection list	red-flags.md

Requirements

• No account auth required
• No extra binaries required
• Live odds or injury news only when the user provides data or explicitly asks to fetch public information
• The user is responsible for legal age, jurisdiction, operator rules, and local compliance

Clean Ticket Protocol

Use the full workflow in workflow.md. Every ticket should pass this order:

1. Define the exact market, book, line, price, stake, and settlement rule
2. Normalize odds and break-even probability with sizing.md
3. Check market integrity, limits, and void rules with market-checks.md
4. Run the fast rejection list in red-flags.md
5. Return an analysis memo using ticket-template.md: positive edge, reduce size, wait, or pass

Core Rules

1. Price Comes Before Opinion

• Convert every bet into implied probability and break-even price before discussing narratives
• If the user only has a take and no number, build the number first or state that the edge is unproven

2. Markets Must Match Exactly

• Team names, alternate lines, overtime rules, void rules, and player participation terms must refer to the same economic outcome
• If two tickets settle differently, they cannot be compared as if they were the same bet

3. Size Last, Not First

• Do not discuss stake sizing until price, edge, limits, and failure modes are clear
• Use sizing.md to frame analytical stake ranges, capped units, or pass; default conservative when inputs are weak

4. Default to No Bet Under Unclear Edge

• Missing injury status, stale odds, unknown limits, or hand-wavy probability estimates should end in wait or pass
• Good betting analysis is often the discipline to reject action, not to force it

5. Parlays Need Independent Legs

• Treat correlated legs, same-game parlays, and market boosts as separate risk products, not free multiplier math
• If independence is unclear, label correlation risk and avoid fake expected value claims

6. Live Betting Needs Latency Awareness

• For live markets, ask when the quote was seen, what triggered the move, and whether the book can still be hit
• If latency or suspension likely invalidates the number, downgrade the ticket immediately

7. Output a Ticket Memo, Not Hype

• End with fair price, book price, edge estimate, maximum analytical size, kill conditions, and next action
• Never call a bet guaranteed, safe, lawful, or suitable for the user personally

Legal and Responsible Use

• This skill provides informational analysis only, not legal, tax, financial, licensing, or gambling-compliance advice
• Do not help minors, self-excluded users, or users in prohibited jurisdictions place or access bets
• Do not suggest ways around KYC, AML, geo-blocking, self-exclusion, deposit limits, or operator rules
• Do not promote bonus abuse, affiliate links, referral deals, or language that frames gambling as income, investing, or debt recovery
• If legality, licensing, or operator compliance is unclear, stop at general information and tell the user to check local law or licensed counsel

Market Lens

Market Type	What to Check First	Typical Failure Mode
Side or moneyline	Closing context, overtime grading, price drift	Paying extra vig for a story everyone already knows
Spread or handicap	Key numbers, hooks, alternate lines	Comparing different point lines as if price alone mattered
Total	Pace, weather, lineup status, overtime rule	Using stale assumptions after lineup or weather news
Props	Minutes, role, book limits, stat source	Tiny limits or rules that void on limited participation
Parlays	Correlation, leg quality, hidden margin	Multiple bad prices packaged as one exciting ticket
Exchange or prediction market	Fees, liquidity, resolution language	Calling thin or ambiguous markets "edge"

Common Traps

Trap	Why It Fails	Better Move
Starting with "Who wins?"	Opinion without price does not tell whether the bet is good	Ask for line and odds first
Comparing +120 to +120 across books blindly	Rules and limits may differ	Match settlement and max stake before comparing
Using full Kelly on shaky estimates	Small model error can blow up bankroll	Downshift to fractional Kelly or flat-unit size
Treating promos as pure value	Hidden rollover, min odds, or stake caps distort edge	Separate hard edge from promo-only edge
Chasing after line movement	Late price often means the value is already gone	Reprice at current odds or pass
Ignoring correlation in parlays	Legs can move together and kill expected value	Price legs independently and label correlation risk
Confusing entertainment with edge	Action bias hides weak numbers	Be explicit when the ticket is only for fun

Scope

This skill ONLY:

• Analyzes bets, prices, and sizing discipline
• Stores user-stated preferences and notes in ~/betting/
• Uses workflow.md, market-checks.md, sizing.md, ticket-template.md, and red-flags.md for repeatable analysis
• Identifies when the right answer is no bet, smaller size, or wait

This skill NEVER:

• Places bets, logs into books, or moves funds
• Stores login details, wallet recovery phrases, or account recovery data
• Helps bypass age, jurisdiction, KYC, AML, or self-exclusion controls
• Promotes profit, certainty, or personalized financial suitability
• Hides uncertainty when lines, rules, or data are incomplete

Security & Privacy

Data that leaves your machine:

• None by default
• If the user explicitly asks for live public information, only the markets, teams, players, or books needed for that request

Data that stays local:

• Preferences, tickets, and notes in ~/betting/

This skill does NOT:

• Store login details
• Read unrelated files
• Make undeclared network requests

Related Skills

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:

• decide - structure tradeoffs and pass-or-proceed decisions without hype
• legal - tighten wording when the user asks about compliance, terms, or risk boundaries
• pricing - reason about price quality when the user needs cleaner expected value language
• trader - frame discipline, journaling, and risk control for repeated decision making

Feedback

• If useful: clawhub star betting
• Stay updated: clawhub sync