Betting

Evaluate betting opportunities with line shopping, bankroll discipline, market checks, and risk filters before any stake is placed.

When to Use

Betting questions involving sports, props, parlays, exchanges, or prediction-style tickets where price, edge, and stake size matter. Agent handles market normalization, implied probability math, line comparison, sizing discipline, and quick rejection of bad bets.

Architecture

Memory lives in ~/betting/. If ~/betting/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

~/betting/
├── memory.md        # Preferences, books, and activation rules
├── tickets.md       # Active or reviewed bets and follow-ups
├── market-notes.md  # Sports, books, and recurring edge notes
└── archive/         # Old tickets and retired observations

Data Storage

• ~/betting/memory.md stores activation rules, preferred sports, and user-stated constraints
• ~/betting/tickets.md stores active or reviewed ticket notes when the user wants tracking
• ~/betting/market-notes.md stores recurring market observations that improve future analysis
• ~/betting/archive/ stores older notes that no longer need to stay hot

Quick Reference

Topic	File
Setup guide	setup.md
Memory template	memory-template.md
Clean Ticket Protocol	workflow.md
Market integrity checks	market-checks.md
Bankroll and sizing rules	sizing.md
Reusable ticket memo	ticket-template.md
Fast rejection list	red-flags.md

Requirements

• No account auth required
• No extra binaries required
• Live odds or injury news only when the user provides data or explicitly asks to fetch public information
• The user is responsible for legal age, jurisdiction, operator rules, and local compliance

Clean Ticket Protocol

Use the full workflow in workflow.md. Every ticket should pass this order:

1. Define the exact market, book, line, price, stake, and settlement rule
2. Normalize odds and break-even probability with sizing.md
3. Check market integrity, limits, and void rules with market-checks.md
4. Run the fast rejection list in red-flags.md
5. Return an analysis memo using ticket-template.md: positive edge, reduce size, wait, or pass

Core Rules

1. Price Comes Before Opinion

• Convert every bet into implied probability and break-even price before discussing narratives
• If the user only has a take and no number, build the number first or state that the edge is unproven

2. Markets Must Match Exactly

• Team names, alternate lines, overtime rules, void rules, and player participation terms must refer to the same economic outcome
• If two tickets settle differently, they cannot be compared as if they were the same bet

3. Size Last, Not First

• Do not discuss stake sizing until price, edge, limits, and failure modes are clear
• Use sizing.md to frame analytical stake ranges, capped units, or pass; default conservative when inputs are weak

4. Default to No Bet Under Unclear Edge

• Missing injury status, stale odds, unknown limits, or hand-wavy probability estimates should end in wait or pass
• Good betting analysis is often the discipline to reject action, not to force it

5. Parlays Need Independent Legs

• Treat correlated legs, same-game parlays, and market boosts as separate risk products, not free multiplier math
• If independence is unclear, label correlation risk and avoid fake expected value claims

6. Live Betting Needs Latency Awareness

• For live markets, ask when the quote was seen, what triggered the move, and whether the book can still be hit
• If latency or suspension likely invalidates the number, downgrade the ticket immediately

7. Output a Ticket Memo, Not Hype

• End with fair price, book price, edge estimate, maximum analytical size, kill conditions, and next action
• Never call a bet guaranteed, safe, lawful, or suitable for the user personally

Legal and Responsible Use

• This skill provides informational analysis only, not legal, tax, financial, licensing, or gambling-compliance advice
• Do not help minors, self-excluded users, or users in prohibited jurisdictions place or access bets
• Do not suggest ways around KYC, AML, geo-blocking, self-exclusion, deposit limits, or operator rules
• Do not promote bonus abuse, affiliate links, referral deals, or language that frames gambling as income, investing, or debt recovery
• If legality, licensing, or operator compliance is unclear, stop at general information and tell the user to check local law or licensed counsel

Market Lens

Market Type	What to Check First	Typical Failure Mode
Side or moneyline	Closing context, overtime grading, price drift	Paying extra vig for a story everyone already knows
Spread or handicap	Key numbers, hooks, alternate lines	Comparing different point lines as if price alone mattered
Total	Pace, weather, lineup status, overtime rule	Using stale assumptions after lineup or weather news
Props	Minutes, role, book limits, stat source	Tiny limits or rules that void on limited participation
Parlays	Correlation, leg quality, hidden margin	Multiple bad prices packaged as one exciting ticket
Exchange or prediction market	Fees, liquidity, resolution language	Calling thin or ambiguous markets "edge"

Common Traps

Trap	Why It Fails	Better Move
Starting with "Who wins?"	Opinion without price does not tell whether the bet is good	Ask for line and odds first
Comparing +120 to +120 across books blindly	Rules and limits may differ	Match settlement and max stake before comparing
Using full Kelly on shaky estimates	Small model error can blow up bankroll	Downshift to fractional Kelly or flat-unit size
Treating promos as pure value	Hidden rollover, min odds, or stake caps distort edge	Separate hard edge from promo-only edge
Chasing after line movement	Late price often means the value is already gone	Reprice at current odds or pass
Ignoring correlation in parlays	Legs can move together and kill expected value	Price legs independently and label correlation risk
Confusing entertainment with edge	Action bias hides weak numbers	Be explicit when the ticket is only for fun

Scope

This skill ONLY:

• Analyzes bets, prices, and sizing discipline
• Stores user-stated preferences and notes in ~/betting/
• Uses workflow.md, market-checks.md, sizing.md, ticket-template.md, and red-flags.md for repeatable analysis
• Identifies when the right answer is no bet, smaller size, or wait

This skill NEVER:

• Places bets, logs into books, or moves funds
• Stores login details, wallet recovery phrases, or account recovery data
• Helps bypass age, jurisdiction, KYC, AML, or self-exclusion controls
• Promotes profit, certainty, or personalized financial suitability
• Hides uncertainty when lines, rules, or data are incomplete

Security & Privacy

Data that leaves your machine:

• None by default
• If the user explicitly asks for live public information, only the markets, teams, players, or books needed for that request

Data that stays local:

• Preferences, tickets, and notes in ~/betting/

This skill does NOT:

• Store login details
• Read unrelated files
• Make undeclared network requests

Related Skills

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:

• decide - structure tradeoffs and pass-or-proceed decisions without hype
• legal - tighten wording when the user asks about compliance, terms, or risk boundaries
• pricing - reason about price quality when the user needs cleaner expected value language
• trader - frame discipline, journaling, and risk control for repeated decision making

Feedback

• If useful: clawhub star betting
• Stay updated: clawhub sync