Kalshi Fed Futures Arb Trader

• Outcome: Pass
• Latest audit: May 28, 2026 · 9:44 AM UTC
• Version: 1.0.1

Overview

This is a high-risk trading skill, but the reviewed artifacts disclose the credentials, dry-run default, live-trading flag, and trading behavior clearly enough to fit its purpose.

Install only if you intend to run an advanced real-money trading skill. Start in dry-run mode, verify or replace the static FedWatch probabilities before live use, review simmer-sdk if you need full auditability, and use a dedicated low-balance Solana wallet plus scoped Simmer API key because --live can place real USDC trades.

SkillSpector

Vulnerability Patterns

• Data Exfiltration: External Transmission, Env Variable Harvesting, File System Enumeration
• Excessive Agency: Unrestricted Tool Access, Autonomous Decision Making, Scope Creep
• MCP Least Privilege: Underdeclared Capability, Wildcard Permission, Missing Permission Declaration
• MCP Tool Poisoning: Hidden Instructions, Unicode Deception, Parameter Description Injection
• Prompt Injection: Instruction Override, Hidden Instructions, Exfiltration Commands

Findings (6)

Lp3

Medium

• Category: MCP Least Privilege
• Confidence: 87% confidence
• Finding: The skill documentation states it requires high-value environment secrets such as SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY, but the metadata does not declare corresponding permissions/capabilities. That mismatch can prevent proper user warning, policy enforcement, or review of secret access, which is especially sensitive because this skill can place live trades and control wallet funds.

Description-Behavior Mismatch

Medium

• Confidence: 94% confidence
• Finding: The manifest requests a SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY even though the described skill purpose is limited to comparing FedWatch probabilities with Kalshi pricing and trading via SIMMER. Requesting a blockchain private key without clear functional justification expands the trust boundary and creates unnecessary exposure of a highly sensitive credential that could be used to transfer funds or sign transactions outside the stated workflow.

Context-Inappropriate Capability

High

• Confidence: 97% confidence
• Finding: Access to a raw Solana private key is an unjustified high-risk capability for the stated arbitrage strategy, which is described as using FedWatch data, Kalshi prices, and SIMMER. If the skill or any dependency is compromised, that private key could be exfiltrated or used to sign arbitrary transactions, causing direct theft of assets or unauthorized on-chain activity unrelated to the advertised function.

Description-Behavior Mismatch

Medium

• Confidence: 95% confidence
• Finding: The skill description says it compares FedWatch probabilities to Kalshi prices and trades, but the code also performs market discovery and imports external Kalshi markets into the user's account. That is an additional side effect with account-level consequences, and users may not expect asset/account mutation beyond placing trades on already-known markets.

Description-Behavior Mismatch

Medium

• Confidence: 86% confidence
• Finding: The manifest states the skill requires only SIMMER_API_KEY, while the code comments indicate live trading also relies on SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY. Undisclosed secret requirements are dangerous because operators may grant or mount additional sensitive credentials without clear documentation or review, increasing the blast radius of compromise or misuse.

Missing User Warnings

Medium

• Confidence: 92% confidence
• Finding: The manifest asks users to provide a private key but gives no user-facing warning, disclosure, or handling guidance for that secret. This increases the chance that users will supply a primary wallet key without understanding the risk, and it obscures the severity of the trust they are placing in the skill and its dependencies.

Static analysis

No suspicious patterns detected.