Polymarket Micro Session Edge Trader

Trades session-transition mean-reversion in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket, fading directional bursts that occur during US, Asia, and Europe session opens.

diagnostikon@diagnostikon

Install

openclaw skills install @diagnostikon/polymarket-micro-session-edge-trader

Micro Session Edge Trader

This is a template. The default signal is session-transition burst detection and mean-reversion in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets -- remix it with additional session models, volume overlays, or cross-asset filters. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, interval parsing, session detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Crypto markets trade 24/7, but liquidity and volatility are not evenly distributed. Three key session transitions create predictable volatility bursts in Polymarket's 5-minute "Up or Down" markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP):

US_OPEN (9:30-10:00 ET): NYSE opens, institutional flow hits crypto
ASIA_OPEN (20:00-20:30 ET): Tokyo/Hong Kong come online
EU_OPEN (3:00-3:30 ET): London session begins

The first 2 five-minute intervals after a session open tend to move directionally (the "burst"). The 3rd interval frequently reverts as the initial impulse fades and mean-reversion kicks in. The skill detects confirmed bursts and trades the fade.

Example: US_OPEN session, BTC markets:

Interval	Time	Direction	Probability
1st	9:30-9:35	Up	62%
2nd	9:35-9:40	Up	65%
3rd (fade target)	9:40-9:45	Up	58%

Burst confirmed: 2 consecutive Up intervals (avg 63.5%). Fade: sell NO on the 3rd interval (bet it reverts Down). Conviction = (0.58 - 0.48) / 0.30 = 0.33, burst_strength boost = (0.635 - 0.55) / 0.45 = 0.19, combined = min(1.0, 0.33 + 0.3 * 0.19) = 0.39, size = max($2, 0.39 * $10) = $3.87.

Edge

Session transitions are the most volatile periods in any market. In crypto, where 24/7 trading means no single "close" to anchor overnight risk, the US, Asia, and Europe opens create mini-opens with predictable burst-then-revert patterns. Institutional flow arrives in waves creating directional pressure that overshoots. Retail 5-minute market participants pile into the burst direction, pushing prices past fair value. After the initial burst, market makers and contrarian flow bring prices back toward equilibrium. Polymarket's 5-minute interval markets are priced by retail participants who chase the burst direction, creating a systematic overshoot that reverts within 1-2 intervals. The timing is predictable -- session opens happen at the same time every day.

Signal Logic

Discover all crypto "Up or Down" 5-minute markets via keyword search (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP)
Parse each question: extract asset, date, start time, end time (as minutes since midnight ET)
Group intervals by (asset, date), sort chronologically
For each session window (US_OPEN 9:30-10:00, ASIA_OPEN 20:00-20:30, EU_OPEN 3:00-3:30):
- Find intervals whose start time falls within the window
- Check if first 2 intervals show same directional bias (both Up or both Down)
- If confirmed burst: the 3rd interval (or first after window) is the fade target
Fade direction is opposite to burst: up-burst -> sell NO, down-burst -> buy YES
Filter out past intervals (only trade upcoming/current based on ET clock)
Conviction scales with threshold distance + burst strength boost (how extreme the burst average was)
Size by conviction, not flat amount -- micro sizing (MAX_POSITION=10)

Remix Signal Ideas

Volume confirmation: Only trade fades when the burst intervals had above-average Polymarket volume
Multi-session confluence: Weight fades higher when 2+ session windows overlap or when multiple coins burst simultaneously
Exchange correlation feed: Pull real-time BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP prices from Binance to confirm the on-chain momentum matches Polymarket burst
Adaptive windows: Dynamically adjust session window boundaries based on historical burst timing data

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	`10`	Max USDC per trade at full conviction (micro)
`SIMMER_MIN_TRADE`	`2`	Floor for any trade
`SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME`	`1000`	Min market volume filter (USD)
`SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD`	`0.12`	Max bid-ask spread
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS`	`15`	Max concurrent open positions
`SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD`	`0.42`	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
`SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD`	`0.58`	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
`SIMMER_MIN_DAYS`	`0`	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk