Polymarket Micro Cluster Momentum Trader

Trades cluster momentum continuation in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles on Polymarket. When 2+ coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) all show the same directional bias in one time slot, trades continuation on the next slot at micro sizes.

Micro Cluster Momentum Trader

This is a template. The default signal is cross-coin cluster momentum detection in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles -- remix it with volume confirmation, on-chain flow data, or additional time horizons. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, time window grouping, cluster detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists "Bitcoin Up or Down", "Ethereum Up or Down", "Solana Up or Down", and "XRP Up or Down" markets for the same 5-minute windows throughout the day. When 2 or more of these coins ALL show the same directional bias in one time slot, this cross-coin convergence is a strong momentum confirmation signal. The skill trades continuation in the NEXT 5-minute slot at micro sizes.

Example: In the 10:05 AM ET window, BTC=Up(58%), ETH=Up(60%), SOL=Up(57%), XRP=Up(54%). Two or more coins show Up bias (p > 0.53). This is an Up cluster. The skill then looks at the 10:10 AM window and trades YES on any coin where p <= YES_THRESHOLD (continuation bet).

Edge

This is a CONVERGENCE play -- the opposite of divergence-based skills like bundle-cross-coin-5min. When the entire crypto market agrees on a direction within a short window, that momentum tends to carry over. The key insight: independent Polymarket order books for different coins reaching the same conclusion simultaneously is a stronger signal than any single coin's price action. Three separate groups of traders, trading three separate order books, all arriving at the same directional view -- that is cross-validated momentum.

Signal Logic

1. Discover active crypto Up/Down 5-minute markets via keyword search + get_markets(limit=200) fallback
2. Parse each question: extract coin (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP), date, and time window
3. Normalize time windows to 5-minute buckets and group by (date, time_bucket)
4. For each window with 2+ coins: check directional bias
   • Up bias: p > CLUSTER_BIAS (default 0.53)
   • Down bias: p < 1 - CLUSTER_BIAS (default 0.47)
5. If Up cluster >= MIN_CLUSTER_SIZE (default 2): look at NEXT 5-min slot, trade YES where p <= YES_THRESHOLD
6. If Down cluster >= MIN_CLUSTER_SIZE: look at NEXT slot, trade NO where p >= NO_THRESHOLD
7. Conviction scales with threshold distance AND cluster strength (more coins = higher multiplier)
8. Size by conviction, not flat amount -- micro sizing (MAX_POSITION=10)

Remix Signal Ideas

• Volume confirmation: Only count a coin toward the cluster if its Polymarket volume in that window exceeds a threshold
• Gradient strength: Weight cluster signal by how far above CLUSTER_BIAS each coin is (stronger consensus = higher conviction)
• Multi-window persistence: Require the cluster to persist across 2 consecutive windows before trading the 3rd
• Exchange correlation feed: Pull real-time BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP prices from Binance to confirm the on-chain momentum matches Polymarket consensus

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	10	Max USDC per trade at full conviction (micro)
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	2	Floor for any trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.12	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	15	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.42	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.58	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_CLUSTER_BIAS	0.53	Cluster directional bias threshold
SIMMER_MIN_CLUSTER_SIZE	2	Min coins agreeing for a cluster signal

Edge Thesis

Individual coin price movements on Polymarket can be noisy -- retail flow, timing differences, order book depth all create short-term noise. But when 2 or more separate coins ALL independently converge on the same directional view within the same 5-minute window, that is meaningful signal. Each coin's market is an independent order book with its own participants. Cross-coin agreement is like having 2+ independent confirmations of the same thesis.

Momentum carries across adjacent 5-minute windows because:

• Macro crypto moves (BTC dominance, risk-on/off shifts) persist longer than 5 minutes
• Retail participants who pushed one window's prices will likely participate in the next
• Information propagation is not instant -- some participants are still reacting when the next window opens
• The cluster signal filters out noise: a single coin moving is inconclusive, but 2+ coins moving together is structural

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk