Polymarket Geopolitics Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to capture alpha on international relations markets using fear-premium correction and regional news timezone windows.

Geopolitics & Conflict Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and geopolitics_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Geopolitical markets are systematically mispriced by retail traders in two ways: they overweight dramatic, scary outcomes relative to documented conflict research base rates, and they reprice slowly when breaking news hits during Asian or European business hours while US retail is asleep. This skill corrects both without any external API.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Geopolitical Bias

1. Discover active geopolitical markets on Polymarket using conflict/diplomacy keywords
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply geopolitics_bias() — combines fear-premium correction with regional news timing
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Geopolitics Bias (built-in, no API required)

Two compounding structural edges:

Factor 1 — Fear/Narrative Premium Correction

Retail systematically overprices dramatic, scary outcomes and underprices boring-but-likely ones. Conflict research databases (ACLED, ICG) document base rates that deviate sharply from media-driven market pricing:

Event type	Why retail misprices it	Multiplier
Nuclear / WMD use	Post-WWII base rate is near-zero; media panic inflates	0.65x
Coup / regime change	Retail overprices drama; ~50% actual success rate	0.75x
Full invasion / occupation	Retail anchors to worst-case escalation	0.80x
Ceasefire / peace deal / truce	Only ~40% of ceasefires hold within 6 months	0.80x
Sanctions / embargo	~30–40% achieve stated objectives; overestimated	0.85x
UN vote / Security Council	P5 veto patterns are well-documented; procedural	1.10x
Diplomatic breakthrough	Boring — retail consistently underprices it	1.15x

Factor 2 — Regional News Timing Window

Polymarket is US-dominated. Markets take 15–45 min to reprice events that break during Asian or European business hours when US retail is asleep:

Region	Active window (UTC)	Multiplier	Rationale
Asia/Pacific (China, Taiwan, NK, Japan)	00:00–08:00	1.20x	US asleep, repricing lag open
Asia/Pacific	13:00–22:00	0.95x	US prime time — priced quickly
Europe/Middle East (Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, NATO)	06:00–14:00	1.15x	US just waking, partial lag
Europe/Middle East	18:00–04:00	0.95x	Off-hours, less news flow

Combined and capped at 1.35x. A diplomatic breakthrough (1.15x) during Asia active hours (1.20x) → 1.35x cap. A nuclear market at any time → 0.65x floor.

Keywords Monitored

war, ceasefire, sanctions, NATO, Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan, Iran,
nuclear, UN, diplomacy, invasion, treaty, military, missile, coup,
election interference, espionage, regime change, Security Council,
veto, peace deal, summit, Gaza, Israel, North Korea, DPRK,
South China Sea

Remix Signal Ideas

• GDELT Project: Real-time global event database — feed event velocity into p to trade divergence between conflict data and market pricing
• ACLED conflict data: Armed conflict location and event intensity scores — use as leading indicator for escalation/de-escalation markets
• UN Security Council voting records: P5 veto pattern analysis for UN vote markets
• ICG (International Crisis Group) alerts: Early-warning signals for crisis escalation before markets react

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	30	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	20000	Min market volume filter (USD) — geopolitical markets need liquidity
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.08	Max bid-ask spread (8%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	5	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	6	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk