Polymarket Candle Harami Trader

Detects harami (inside bar) candlestick patterns on Polymarket crypto 5-minute interval markets. A harami forms when a small-range interval (near 50%) appears after a large-range interval (far from 50%), signalling indecision after a strong move -- often followed by reversal. Targets BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP Up or Down bundles with conviction-based position sizing.

Candle -- Harami Pattern Trader

This is a template. The default signal detects harami (inside bar) candlestick patterns in crypto 5-minute interval markets and trades the expected reversal using conviction-based sizing. The skill handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, pattern detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will Bitcoin be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on actual price movement. A harami (inside bar) pattern forms when a large-range interval (probability far from 50%, indicating a strong directional move) is immediately followed by a small-range interval (probability near 50%, indicating indecision). The small candle is "contained" within the body of the large one. This classic candlestick pattern signals that the strong move has lost momentum, and a reversal is likely on the next interval.

Edge

Unlike generic mean-reversion strategies that simply fade any extreme reading, this skill specifically targets the harami pattern -- a two-candle formation with a precise structural meaning:

1. Pattern recognition -- the harami is one of the most reliable reversal patterns in traditional technical analysis, adapted here to Polymarket's discrete 5-minute intervals
2. Indecision after conviction -- a large candle shows strong directional conviction; a subsequent small candle near 50% shows that conviction has evaporated, creating a structural reversal setup
3. Confirmation gating -- the skill checks the third interval (confirmation candle) and only trades if it hasn't already moved in the reversal direction, ensuring the edge hasn't been priced in
4. Independent resolution -- each 5-minute interval resolves independently, so the harami pattern captures genuine shifts in market microstructure rather than mechanical carry-over

Signal Logic

1. Discover crypto interval markets via keyword search (Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) with a get_markets(limit=200) fallback
2. Parse each question to extract (coin, date, start_time_minutes) using regex
3. Group intervals by (coin, date) and sort by time
4. Scan each group for consecutive pairs where:
   • Interval N is large: probability < 0.40 or > 0.60 (distance from 0.5 exceeds HARAMI_LARGE)
   • Interval N+1 is small: probability between 0.48 and 0.52 (distance from 0.5 within HARAMI_SMALL)
5. Determine harami direction:
   • Bullish harami: large DOWN (p < 0.40) followed by small neutral -> reversal UP expected
   • Bearish harami: large UP (p > 0.60) followed by small neutral -> reversal DOWN expected
6. Check interval N+2 (confirmation): only trade if it hasn't already moved in the reversal direction
7. Size by conviction (distance from threshold), not flat amount

Remix Signal Ideas

• Volume-weighted harami -- weight the pattern detection by trading volume; high-volume large candles followed by low-volume small candles produce stronger reversal signals
• Multi-timeframe confirmation -- check if the harami pattern aligns with a broader trend reversal across 15-minute or hourly aggregated intervals
• Cross-coin harami -- if BTC shows a harami and ETH/SOL show the same pattern simultaneously, the reversal signal is stronger (correlated exhaustion)
• Doji refinement -- distinguish between harami where the small candle is exactly 50% (doji) vs. slightly biased; true doji haramis have higher reversal rates
• Engulfing follow-up -- after a harami reversal, look for an engulfing pattern in the same direction to add to the position

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade at full conviction
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	3000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	1	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	10	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_HARAMI_LARGE	0.10	Min distance from 0.5 for the large candle
SIMMER_HARAMI_SMALL	0.02	Max distance from 0.5 for the small candle

Edge Thesis

Crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket exhibit classic candlestick reversal patterns. When a strong directional interval (far from 50%) is immediately followed by a neutral interval (near 50%), this harami formation signals that directional conviction has evaporated. The small candle represents market indecision after a strong move -- a well-known precursor to reversal in both traditional and crypto technical analysis. The skill exploits this by trading the confirmation interval in the reversal direction with conviction-based sizing that scales with the distance from the trading threshold.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk