Polymarket Candle Doji Breakout Trader

Detects doji patterns (48-52% probability) in crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket and trades the post-doji breakout in the direction of the pre-doji trend. In candlestick analysis a doji after a directional trend signals indecision before a breakout -- the next interval tends to continue the prior trend direction. Targets BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP Up or Down bundles with conviction-based position sizing.

Candle -- Doji Breakout Trader

This is a template. The default signal detects doji patterns in crypto 5-minute interval markets and trades the post-doji breakout using conviction-based sizing. The skill handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, doji detection, trend analysis, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will Bitcoin be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on the actual price movement. A doji is a 5-minute interval where probability sits at 48-52% -- zero directional conviction. In candlestick analysis, a doji appearing after a clear directional trend (2-3 consecutive UP or DOWN intervals) signals indecision before a breakout. The next interval after the doji tends to break out strongly, continuing the pre-doji trend direction, because the underlying momentum has only paused -- not reversed.

Edge

Unlike a generic mean-reversion or momentum strategy, the doji breakout specifically targets the transition from indecision back to trend continuation. The edge arises because:

1. Doji = temporary pause, not reversal -- when a coin trends UP for 3 intervals then prints a doji (48-52%), retail participants read this as "the move is over" and price the next interval near 50%. But the underlying trend momentum typically resumes.
2. Market mispricing of continuation -- the post-doji interval is systematically underpriced for continuation because participants anchor on the doji's neutrality rather than the preceding trend.
3. Candlestick pattern validity -- doji-after-trend is one of the most robust patterns in technical analysis, documented across equities, forex, and crypto on multiple timeframes.
4. Bundle independence -- each 5-minute interval resolves independently; the doji's neutral price does not mechanically prevent the next interval from continuing the trend.

Signal Logic

1. Discover crypto interval markets via keyword search (Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) with a get_markets(limit=200) fallback
2. Parse each question to extract (coin, date, start_time_minutes, end_time_minutes) using regex
3. Group intervals by (coin, date) and sort by time
4. Classify each interval: UP if p > 0.55, DOWN if p < 0.45, NEUTRAL if 0.45-0.55
5. Scan for doji intervals (p between 48-52%, tunable via SIMMER_DOJI_RANGE)
6. Check the TREND_LENGTH intervals before each doji -- if ALL show the same direction (all UP or all DOWN), the post-doji interval is a breakout target
7. Trade the post-doji interval:
   • Pre-doji trend = UP and post-doji priced < YES_THRESHOLD -> buy YES (breakout not priced in)
   • Pre-doji trend = DOWN and post-doji priced > NO_THRESHOLD -> buy NO (breakout not priced in)
8. Size by conviction (distance from threshold), not flat amount

Remix Signal Ideas

• Volume-weighted doji detection -- require the doji interval to have above-average trading volume for a stronger signal; low-volume dojis are less meaningful
• Multi-timeframe confirmation -- check if the trend also holds on a 15-minute or 1-hour timeframe before trading the breakout
• Order book imbalance -- use Polymarket order book depth to detect hidden buying/selling pressure during the doji interval
• Cross-coin doji sync -- if BTC prints a doji while ETH/SOL are still trending, the breakout signal is stronger (BTC leads)
• Volatility filter -- skip doji patterns during low-volatility regimes where breakouts are weaker and less profitable

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade at full conviction
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	3000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	1	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	10	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_DOJI_RANGE	0.02	Half-width of doji zone around 50% (48-52% by default)
SIMMER_TREND_LENGTH	3	Min consecutive same-direction intervals before doji to qualify as trend

Edge Thesis

Crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket exhibit a systematic mispricing after doji patterns. When a coin trends in one direction for 2-3 intervals then prints a doji (48-52% probability), the market prices the post-doji interval near 50% -- interpreting the doji as trend exhaustion. In reality, the doji represents a temporary pause in an ongoing trend; the next interval continues the pre-doji direction more often than the market implies. This is the classic doji-breakout pattern from candlestick analysis, adapted to Polymarket's 5-minute interval structure. The skill exploits this gap with conviction-based sizing that scales with the distance from the trading threshold.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk