Candle -- Doji Breakout Trader
This is a template.
The default signal detects doji patterns in crypto 5-minute interval markets and trades the post-doji breakout using conviction-based sizing. The skill handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, doji detection, trend analysis, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Polymarket lists 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will Bitcoin be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on the actual price movement. A doji is a 5-minute interval where probability sits at 48-52% -- zero directional conviction. In candlestick analysis, a doji appearing after a clear directional trend (2-3 consecutive UP or DOWN intervals) signals indecision before a breakout. The next interval after the doji tends to break out strongly, continuing the pre-doji trend direction, because the underlying momentum has only paused -- not reversed.
Edge
Unlike a generic mean-reversion or momentum strategy, the doji breakout specifically targets the transition from indecision back to trend continuation. The edge arises because:
- Doji = temporary pause, not reversal -- when a coin trends UP for 3 intervals then prints a doji (48-52%), retail participants read this as "the move is over" and price the next interval near 50%. But the underlying trend momentum typically resumes.
- Market mispricing of continuation -- the post-doji interval is systematically underpriced for continuation because participants anchor on the doji's neutrality rather than the preceding trend.
- Candlestick pattern validity -- doji-after-trend is one of the most robust patterns in technical analysis, documented across equities, forex, and crypto on multiple timeframes.
- Bundle independence -- each 5-minute interval resolves independently; the doji's neutral price does not mechanically prevent the next interval from continuing the trend.
Signal Logic
- Discover crypto interval markets via keyword search (
Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) with a get_markets(limit=200) fallback
- Parse each question to extract (coin, date, start_time_minutes, end_time_minutes) using regex
- Group intervals by (coin, date) and sort by time
- Classify each interval: UP if p > 0.55, DOWN if p < 0.45, NEUTRAL if 0.45-0.55
- Scan for doji intervals (p between 48-52%, tunable via
SIMMER_DOJI_RANGE)
- Check the
TREND_LENGTH intervals before each doji -- if ALL show the same direction (all UP or all DOWN), the post-doji interval is a breakout target
- Trade the post-doji interval:
- Pre-doji trend = UP and post-doji priced < YES_THRESHOLD -> buy YES (breakout not priced in)
- Pre-doji trend = DOWN and post-doji priced > NO_THRESHOLD -> buy NO (breakout not priced in)
- Size by conviction (distance from threshold), not flat amount
Remix Signal Ideas
- Volume-weighted doji detection -- require the doji interval to have above-average trading volume for a stronger signal; low-volume dojis are less meaningful
- Multi-timeframe confirmation -- check if the trend also holds on a 15-minute or 1-hour timeframe before trading the breakout
- Order book imbalance -- use Polymarket order book depth to detect hidden buying/selling pressure during the doji interval
- Cross-coin doji sync -- if BTC prints a doji while ETH/SOL are still trending, the breakout signal is stronger (BTC leads)
- Volatility filter -- skip doji patterns during low-volatility regimes where breakouts are weaker and less profitable
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|
python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade at full conviction |
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 3000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 1 | Min days until resolution |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 10 | Max concurrent open positions |
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES only if market probability <= this |
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO only if market probability >= this |
SIMMER_DOJI_RANGE | 0.02 | Half-width of doji zone around 50% (48-52% by default) |
SIMMER_TREND_LENGTH | 3 | Min consecutive same-direction intervals before doji to qualify as trend |
Edge Thesis
Crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket exhibit a systematic mispricing after doji patterns. When a coin trends in one direction for 2-3 intervals then prints a doji (48-52% probability), the market prices the post-doji interval near 50% -- interpreting the doji as trend exhaustion. In reality, the doji represents a temporary pause in an ongoing trend; the next interval continues the pre-doji direction more often than the market implies. This is the classic doji-breakout pattern from candlestick analysis, adapted to Polymarket's 5-minute interval structure. The skill exploits this gap with conviction-based sizing that scales with the distance from the trading threshold.
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)
