Polymarket Biotech Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on FDA drug approvals, biotech IPOs, clinical trial outcomes, pharma M&A, and precision medicine milestones. Use when you want to capture alpha on high-impact binary biotech events using PDUFA dates, clinical trial registries, and FDA calendar signals.

Biotech & FDA Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + FDA PDUFA calendar alignment — remix it with ClinicalTrials.gov API for trial status, BioMedTracker historical approval rates by indication, or biotech earnings call sentiment analysis.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The global biotech market is valued at $1.77 trillion (2025) and growing to $6.34 trillion by 2035 (13.6% CAGR). Biotech prediction markets have some of the highest information density — FDA decisions are binary, have clear dates (PDUFA), and are well-studied. This skill trades:

• FDA approvals — Breakthrough therapy designations, CRISPR/oncology approvals, GLP-1 next-gen
• Clinical trials — Phase 3 outcomes, trial enrollment milestones
• Biotech IPOs — Class of 2026 IPO announcement and performance markets
• Pharma M&A — Large-cap acquisition deals in oncology, AI drug discovery
• Precision medicine — CAR-T, mRNA vaccine, liquid biopsy milestones

Key insight: FDA approval rates by indication are well-documented. When Polymarket prices deviate significantly from historical base rates, there's tradeable edge.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: PDUFA Date Calendar + Base Rate Analysis

1. Discover active biotech/FDA markets on Polymarket
2. Match markets to FDA PDUFA calendar (public, updated monthly)
3. Look up historical approval rates for the specific drug class/indication
4. Compare base rate (e.g., oncology breakthrough therapy ~85% approval) vs market price
5. If market prices approval at <70% for a high-base-rate indication, buy YES
6. Use context check to avoid overtraded markets before major catalysts

Remix Ideas

• ClinicalTrials.gov API: Monitor trial status changes (recruiting → completed) as leading indicator
• BioMedTracker / Citeline: Historical approval rate databases by indication
• FDA press releases: Real-time monitoring for early approval/rejection signals
• Biotech Twitter: KOL (Key Opinion Leader) sentiment before PDUFA dates
• Short interest data: High short interest in a biotech before PDUFA = market expects rejection — price this in

Market Categories Tracked

BIOTECH_KEYWORDS = [
    "FDA", "approval", "CRISPR", "cancer", "oncology", "clinical trial",
    "phase 3", "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "mRNA", "CAR-T",
    "Alzheimer", "GLP-1", "biotech", "pharma", "M&A",
    "IPO", "diagnostic", "liquid biopsy", "gene editing",
    "sickle cell", "precision medicine", "antibody"
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$35 USDC	Binary events warrant careful sizing
Min market volume	$5,000	FDA markets attract informed traders
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Allow wider for rare disease markets
Min days to resolution	7	Don't enter days before PDUFA
Max open positions	6	Biotech events are correlated

FDA Approval Base Rates (Reference)

Indication	Historical Approval Rate
Oncology (breakthrough designation)	~85%
Rare disease (orphan drug)	~70%
CNS/Neurology	~55%
General approval (Phase 3 success)	~65%
CRISPR/gene therapy (novel)	~45%

Key Data Sources

• FDA PDUFA Calendar: https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-4-fda-drug-review
• ClinicalTrials.gov API: https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/
• SEC EDGAR (biotech S-1 filings): https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22biotech%22&dateRange=custom

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-biotech-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 20 minutes (*/20 * * * *). FDA decisions are infrequent but high-impact; moderate polling is sufficient.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	35	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	5000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	7	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	6	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.