Polymarket Ai Tech Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on AI model releases, tech IPOs, product launches, GPU infrastructure milestones, and AI regulation events. Use when you want to capture alpha on the dominant market theme of 2026 — AI and technology — using model benchmark feeds and tech press signals.

diagnostikon@diagnostikon

Install

openclaw skills install @diagnostikon/polymarket-ai-tech-trader

AI & Tech Launch Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword discovery + LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard monitoring — remix it with AI benchmark APIs (MMLU, HumanEval), tech news RSS feeds, SEC EDGAR filings for IPO signals, or GitHub commit activity as model release early warning. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

AI markets are the fastest-growing category on Polymarket in 2026. AI investment drove >90% of US GDP gains in H1 2025. This skill trades:

AI model benchmarks — Which company leads LMSYS rankings at a given date
Model releases — GPT-5, Claude 4, Gemini Ultra release/performance questions
Tech IPOs — OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe IPO announcement markets
Product launches — Apple Vision Pro 2, Tesla FSD milestones, Tesla Optimus
AI regulation — EU AI Act enforcement, US federal AI legislation
Infrastructure — NVIDIA datacenter revenue, H100 deployment counts

Key insight: AI news cycles are fast and retail trades on headlines. Informed traders with benchmark data have significant edge.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Benchmark Divergence + News Catalyst

Discover active AI/tech markets on Polymarket
Monitor LMSYS Chatbot Arena for ranking shifts
Monitor Hugging Face Open LLM Leaderboard for benchmark updates
Compare quantitative model performance data vs market implied probability
When a model clearly leads benchmarks but market hasn't repriced, enter
For IPO markets: monitor SEC Form S-1 EDGAR filings as leading indicator

Remix Ideas

GitHub API: Watch for sudden commit activity/new repo creation on known model orgs
Perplexity/Google Trends: Rising AI search terms as momentum signal
HuggingFace API: Model download counts as proxy for adoption
SEC EDGAR: Automated S-1 filing alerts for IPO markets
NVIDIA earnings call transcripts: Forward guidance vs market pricing on infrastructure markets

Market Categories Tracked

python

AI_TECH_KEYWORDS = [
    "AI", "GPT", "Claude", "Gemini", "OpenAI", "Anthropic", "Google",
    "model", "benchmark", "AGI", "ChatGPT", "LLM",
    "IPO", "valuation", "Stripe", "Databricks", "SpaceX IPO",
    "Apple", "Vision Pro", "Tesla FSD", "Optimus", "robot",
    "NVIDIA", "GPU", "H100", "datacenter", "quantum",
    "EU AI Act", "regulation", "congress"
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	High-liquidity markets allow larger size
Min market volume	$10,000	AI markets are deeply liquid
Max bid-ask spread	6%	Tight spreads expected in popular markets
Min days to resolution	5	News cycles move fast
Max open positions	10	AI/tech is broad category

Edge Opportunities

Retail Recency Bias

After a major AI announcement (e.g., GPT-5 release), retail traders overweight recency and push other company markets down more than warranted. Fade the overreaction on competing platforms.

Benchmark Lag

Markets often price on last-known model rankings. When a new benchmark publishes at ~midnight UTC, markets take 1–4 hours to fully reprice. Tight monitoring loop captures this window.

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install polymarket-ai-tech-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 5 minutes (*/5 * * * *). AI news breaks around the clock; tightest loop of all category skills.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call `--live`.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	`40`	Max USDC per trade (full conviction)
`SIMMER_MIN_TRADE`	`5`	Min USDC per trade (weak conviction floor)
`SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME`	`10000`	Min market volume filter (USD)
`SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD`	`0.06`	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
`SIMMER_MIN_DAYS`	`5`	Min days until market resolves
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS`	`10`	Max concurrent open positions
`SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD`	`0.38`	Buy YES if market probability ≤ this value
`SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD`	`0.62`	Sell NO if market probability ≥ this value

Conviction-based position sizing

Position size scales automatically with signal strength — no flat bets.

At the threshold boundary (e.g. p=38% for YES): minimum trade (SIMMER_MIN_TRADE, default $5)
At maximum conviction (p=0% for YES, p=100% for NO): full position (SIMMER_MAX_POSITION, default $40)
Everything in between scales linearly

Example YES trades:

Market probability	Conviction	Size
38% (at threshold)	0%	$5 (floor)
30%	21%	$8
20%	47%	$19
5%	87%	$35
0%	100%	$40

This means the skill automatically bets more when the edge is larger, and less when the signal is marginal.