Kalshi Fed Dot Plot Trader

Other

Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi using FOMC dot plot median implied rate path. Computes fair probability of cut/hike per meeting and trades when market diverges. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

Install

openclaw skills install kalshi-fed-dot-plot-trader

Kalshi Fed Dot Plot Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses a static dot plot to compute fair probabilities -- remix it with live SEP data, Fed funds futures, or OIS-implied rates. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The FOMC dot plot median implies a rate path for 2026. This skill computes fair probability of at least one rate cut (or hike) by each meeting date from the implied path, then trades when Kalshi market prices diverge from these fair values.

Key advantages:

Dot plot is the Fed's own forecast -- strongest available signal for rate expectations
Updated quarterly -- each SEP release provides fresh data
Mean-reverting -- market prices tend to converge to dot-plot-implied probabilities between meetings

Signal Logic

Dot Plot to Fair Probability

Load FOMC dot plot median rate path (updated after each SEP)
Compute implied cuts from current rate to each quarterly endpoint
Map cut count to probability of "at least one cut" by each meeting
Compare fair probability to Kalshi market price
Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Conviction-Based Sizing

conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-fed-dot-plot-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
`SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY`	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_FED_DOT_ENTRY_EDGE`	`0.10`	Min divergence to trigger trade
`SIMMER_FED_DOT_EXIT_THRESHOLD`	`0.45`	Sell position when price reaches this level
`SIMMER_FED_DOT_MAX_POSITION_USD`	`5.00`	Max USDC per trade
`SIMMER_FED_DOT_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN`	`3`	Max trades per execution cycle
`SIMMER_FED_DOT_SLIPPAGE_MAX`	`0.15`	Max slippage before skipping trade
`SIMMER_FED_DOT_MIN_LIQUIDITY`	`0`	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.