Kalshi Eth Gas Correlation Trader

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using on-chain gas prices as a bullish/bearish signal. High gas = strong demand = bullish for ETH. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

diagnostikon@diagnostikon

Install

openclaw skills install @diagnostikon/kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader

Kalshi ETH Gas Correlation Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses gas price regimes as a directional indicator -- remix it with live Etherscan gas API, EIP-1559 base fee tracking, or L2 activity metrics. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

High on-chain gas prices indicate strong demand for Ethereum block space (DeFi activity, NFT mints, token launches). This demand correlates positively with ETH price. This skill classifies gas into regimes and applies a directional bias to ETH price market probabilities.

Key advantages:

Leading indicator -- gas spikes often precede price moves
On-chain verifiable -- gas data is public and real-time
Regime-based -- avoids noise by classifying into discrete regimes

Signal Logic

Gas Regime Model

Classify current gas price into regime (extreme/high/normal/low/dead)
Map regime to directional bias (+15% to -10%)
Apply bias to each ETH price market probability
Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Gas Regimes

Regime	Gas (gwei)	Bias	Interpretation
Extreme	>100	+15%	Very bullish
High	>50	+8%	Bullish
Normal	>20	0%	Neutral
Low	>10	-5%	Bearish
Dead	<10	-10%	Very bearish

Remix Ideas

Live Etherscan API: Real-time gas price feed instead of estimates
EIP-1559 base fee: More accurate demand metric post-merge
L2 activity: Track Arbitrum/Optimism activity for full picture
DeFi TVL overlay: Combine gas with total value locked trends

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Gas high threshold	50 gwei	Above this = high demand regime
Gas low threshold	10 gwei	Below this = dead regime

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
`SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY`	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_ENTRY_EDGE`	`0.10`	Min divergence to trigger trade
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_EXIT_THRESHOLD`	`0.45`	Sell position when price reaches this level
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MAX_POSITION_USD`	`5.00`	Max USDC per trade
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN`	`3`	Max trades per execution cycle
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_SLIPPAGE_MAX`	`0.15`	Max slippage before skipping (15%)
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MIN_LIQUIDITY`	`0`	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_HIGH_GWEI`	`50`	Gas threshold for high-demand regime
`SIMMER_ETH_GAS_LOW_GWEI`	`10`	Gas threshold for dead regime

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.