Kalshi Crypto Monotonicity Trader

Enforces monotonicity constraints on crypto price-level markets on Kalshi. P(BTC > $110k) must always >= P(BTC > $120k). Trades violations by buying underpriced lower-threshold contracts and selling overpriced higher-threshold ones. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

This is a template.
The default signal enforces monotonicity on crypto price-level bins -- remix it with real-time order book data, implied volatility surfaces, or cross-exchange price feeds.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Crypto price-level markets on Kalshi price "Will BTC be above $X?" for various thresholds. By definition, P(BTC > $110k) >= P(BTC > $120k) because the first event subsumes the second. When the market violates this, we capture the arbitrage by buying the underpriced contract and selling the overpriced one.

Key advantages:

• Pure math arbitrage -- no model or opinion needed, just logical consistency
• Works for BTC and ETH -- any asset with multiple price-level markets
• Self-correcting -- violations close quickly, so early detection matters

Signal Logic

Monotonicity Check

1. Fetch all crypto price-level markets (BTC above $X, ETH above $Y)
2. Group by asset, sort by price level ascending
3. Verify P(above lower level) >= P(above higher level) for all pairs
4. When violation exceeds violation_threshold, generate paired trades

Example (with defaults)

Market	Level	Market P	Expected	Violation
BTC > $100k	$100,000	45%	>= 35%	--
BTC > $110k	$110,000	35%	>= 20%	--
BTC > $120k	$120,000	38%	<= 35%	3%

In the last row, P(>$120k) = 38% > P(>$110k) = 35%, violating monotonicity by 3%.

Remix Ideas

• Order book depth: Weight violations by available liquidity at each level
• Implied vol surface: Use violation patterns to infer mispriced implied volatility
• Cross-exchange arb: Compare Kalshi levels to Deribit options strikes

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Violation threshold	3%	Min probability gap to trigger trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

bash

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-monotonicity-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD	0.03	Min probability gap between adjacent levels to trigger trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%)
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.