Dow Theory

道氏理论（Dow Theory）技术分析 — 股市趋势判断的奠基理论。当用户说「道氏理论」「用道氏理论分析」「确认趋势」「主要趋势」「次级折返」「道氏确认原则」时激活。

Security Scan

This is an instruction-only Dow Theory technical‑analysis guidance skill whose declared purpose, instructions, and requirements are coherent and do not request extra credentials, installs, or unexpected system access.

Purpose & Capability

The name/description match the SKILL.md content (explanation of Dow Theory rules, activation triggers). The skill does not request unrelated permissions, binaries, or credentials.

Instruction Scope

Runtime instructions are purely descriptive guidance about Dow Theory and how to apply it; they do not instruct the agent to read system files, call external endpoints, exfiltrate data, or run shell commands.

Install Mechanism

No install spec or code files that would write or execute downloaded artifacts are present. This is the lowest-risk format (instruction-only).

Credentials

The skill declares no required environment variables, credentials, or config paths. Nothing disproportionate is requested relative to the stated purpose.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and the skill has no special persistence or system-wide configuration changes. Autonomous invocation is allowed by default but is expected for user-invocable skills and there are no extra privileges requested.

Assessment

This skill is a passive, instruction-only guide to Dow Theory and does not request credentials or install code — risk from the skill itself is low. Before enabling, consider that: (1) the content is financial guidance, not guaranteed advice — validate rules against trusted sources; (2) the agent may invoke the skill automatically when triggered by the listed phrases, so be mindful if you don’t want automated trend analyses; and (3) never provide trading account credentials or API keys to this skill (it doesn’t ask for them, but avoid granting external tooling access when using financial guidance).

道氏理论（Dow Theory）

道氏理论是所有技术分析的奠基理论，由Charles Dow创立，核心是价格反映一切，通过相互验证确认趋势。

六大基本原则

1. 价格反映一切

市场指数的每一次涨跌都包含了宏观经济、政策、情绪等所有信息

2. 三大趋势分类

趋势	周期	幅度	参与者
主要趋势（Primary）	1年~数年	≥20%	机构投资者
次级折返（Secondary）	3周~数月	主要趋势的1/3~2/3	中期交易者
短期波动（Minor）	几天~3周	随机	日内交易者

3. 主要趋势三阶段

积累期：聪明钱悄悄建仓，价格窄幅波动，舆论偏空
推运期：趋势确认，经济数据向好，更多人跟进
派发期：专业投资者获利了结，舆论极度乐观，天量见顶

4. 相互验证原则

两个市场平均指数（工业/运输）必须相互确认，才能确认趋势

• 牛市：两个指数同时创新高
• 熊市：两个指数同时创新低
• 背离：单边突破 = 趋势存疑

5. 成交量确认

上涨趋势：价格涨时成交量放大，价格跌时成交量缩小
下跌趋势：价格跌时成交量放大，价格反弹时成交量缩小

6. 趋势确认需要收盘价突破

只有收盘价才能确认趋势改变，盘中高低价仅供参考

实战应用

趋势判断标准

上升趋势：连续高点不断抬高，低点不断抬高
下降趋势：连续高点不断压低，低点不断压低

关键转折信号

• 突破前一个重要高点 = 上升趋势延续
• 跌破前一个重要低点 = 下降趋势延续
• 次级折返跌破前一个低点 + 道氏指数确认 = 主要趋势改变信号

与其他指标配合

• 道氏确认方向 → 均线系统找买卖点
• 道氏确认顶部 → MACD背离确认
• 道氏确认趋势 → 波浪理论数浪

参考资料

道氏理论详细规则与缺陷分析见 references/dow-rules.md