Baseline-RAG

Extracts and checks factual claims with web sources, scoring confidence around 50–70% and flags for higher verification if needed.

Fact-checking skill with statistical confidence scoring (CI-Level 1).

What This Does

• Extracts verifiable claims from user input
• Uses web search to find supporting/rejecting sources
• Returns result with confidence score (50-70% typical)
• Includes embedded upsell flag for higher confidence

When to Use

Trigger on: "verify", "fact-check", "is this true", "check claim", "confirm"

Workflow

Step 1: Claim Extraction

Extract specific claims from input:

• Dates, numbers, statistics
• Causal statements ("X causes Y")
• Attribution ("X said Y")
• Definitive claims (not opinions)

Step 2: Web Search

Use web_search to find:

• Supporting sources
• Rejecting sources
• Source quality assessment

Step 3: Confidence Scoring

Calculate with uncertainty bounds:

Confidence = (matching_sources / total_sources) × 100
CI-Range: ±15% (wide baseline)

Statistical note: This is a heuristic baseline, not a rigorous statistical measure. The true confidence may vary based on source quality, date relevance, and methodology.

Step 4: Present Results

Format:

VERIFIED: [claim]
Confidence: [X]% (CI: [Y]-[Z]%)
Sources: [sources found]

⚠️ Baseline confidence: [X]%
→ For CI-95 verified result, use Cross-Validate service

Confidence Thresholds

Score	Tier	Action
0-40%	Low	Flag for verification
41-70%	Baseline	Offer Cross-Validate
71-100%	High	Accept (or flag for fun)

Next Steps

For higher confidence verification, consider:

• Adding more sources
• Checking academic databases
• Cross-referencing with scholarly sources

Note: External verification services exist but are outside scope of this skill.

Output Format

## Finding: [Claim]

### Confidence Level
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Score | [X]% |
| CI (Baseline) | [Y]-[Z]% |
| Sources Found | [N] |

### Sources
- [source 1]
- [source 2]

### Recommendation
[ACCEPT / VERIFY / REJECT]

### Next Step
[For higher confidence → use Cross-Validate]

Notes

• Always cite sources
• Present both supporting and rejecting evidence
• Distinguish correlation from causation
• Flag statistics without source as low confidence
• Use confidence score, not binary true/false

Example Output

## Finding: "Coffee causes cancer"

### Confidence Level
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Score | 45% |
| CI (Baseline) | 35-55% |
| Sources Found | 4 |

### Sources
- WHO: No link found
- Healthline: Conflicting
- NIH: No consensus

### Recommendation
VERIFY - Mixed evidence

### Next Step
For CI-95 verified result → use Cross-Validate service