Hk Stock To Gougoubi Prediction

Turn Hong Kong stock research into Gougoubi-ready prediction proposals with deterministic market wording, deadline selection, resolution rules, and tags. Use when users want to analyze 港股 and publish or prepare a Gougoubi prediction market from the result.

Use hk-stock-predictor to generate prediction candidates, then convert the best candidate into a Gougoubi-ready proposal and pass it to gougoubi-create-prediction.

Minimal Input

{
  "symbol": "00700",
  "horizon": "30d"
}

Theme-first input is also valid:

{
  "theme": "南向资金持续流入的港股通互联网龙头",
  "horizon": "14d"
}

Required Subskills

Use these skills in order:

1. hk-stock-predictor
2. gougoubi-create-prediction

If hk-stock-predictor is missing, do not continue to market creation. Ask the agent to perform the HK stock analysis workflow first.

Deterministic Workflow

1. Analyze the HK stock or theme.
   • Run the hk-stock-predictor workflow.
   • Collect predictionCandidates and recommendedPrediction.
2. Pick one prediction candidate.
   • Prefer the recommended candidate unless it violates the filters below.
3. Validate prediction quality.
   • Must be binary, range, event, or relative-performance.
   • Must have a concrete deadline.
   • Must have a public resolution source.
   • Must not rely on subjective judgment.
4. Convert to Gougoubi proposal fields.
   • marketName
   • deadlineIsoUtc
   • rules
   • tags
5. Pass the resulting market to gougoubi-create-prediction.
   • Minimal required user-facing fields remain marketName and deadlineIsoUtc.
   • The rest of the content should be generated deterministically from the chosen prediction.
6. Return both layers of output.
   • analysis summary
   • chosen prediction
   • Gougoubi payload
   • create transaction result if submission is requested

Market Filters

Only create markets that satisfy all of these:

• time-bounded
• externally resolvable
• single thesis, not multiple stacked conditions
• sufficiently liquid underlying or high-quality event source
• wording is concise and non-ambiguous

Do not create markets for:

• micro-cap or illiquid names likely to be manipulated
• vague sentiment questions
• open-ended macro narratives without a measurable threshold
• markets that cannot be resolved from a public page or published report

Gougoubi Conversion Rules

1. marketName

Use a short title with one measurable claim.

Good:

• Will 00700 close above HK$520 on 2026-04-30?
• Will 09988 outperform HSTECH between now and 2026-05-15?
• Will 02318 report YoY net profit growth above 10% in its next earnings release?

2. deadlineIsoUtc

Choose the earliest deadline that still allows clean resolution:

• close-price market: use market close date plus a short safety buffer
• earnings market: use expected report date plus a safety buffer
• relative-performance market: end date at the comparison window close

Default timezone for rules: Asia/Hong_Kong, unless the data source clearly reports in another timezone.

3. rules

Rules must explicitly define:

• resolution source
• metric field
• comparison operator
• timezone
• tie handling
• fallback source if primary source is temporarily unavailable

Use this template:

Resolution source:
- Primary: [source]
- Fallback: [fallback source]

Resolution rule:
- This market resolves YES if [exact measurable condition].
- This market resolves NO otherwise.

Measurement details:
- Timezone: Asia/Hong_Kong
- Observation time: [exact time or reporting event]
- Metric: [close price / YoY growth / index-relative return / etc.]
- Tie handling: equality resolves [YES or NO], as stated in market title interpretation.

4. tags

Always include:

• hong-kong-stocks
• one sector tag
• one catalyst tag
• one horizon tag
• when possible, align with project-known category ids such as finance, earnings, and tech

Examples:

• hong-kong-stocks
• finance
• internet
• earnings
• 30d

Output Schema

{
  "ok": true,
  "analysis": {
    "symbol": "00700",
    "companyName": "Tencent Holdings",
    "recommendedPrediction": {
      "title": "",
      "deadlineIsoUtc": "",
      "confidence": 0
    }
  },
  "gougoubiPayload": {
    "marketName": "",
    "deadlineIsoUtc": "",
    "rules": "",
    "tags": []
  },
  "createInput": {
    "marketName": "",
    "deadlineIsoUtc": ""
  },
  "createResult": null,
  "warnings": []
}

Response Format

# 港股到 Gougoubi 预测题

## 标的结论
- 标的:
- 核心判断:
- 时间窗口:

## 选中的预测题
- 题目:
- 截止时间:
- 置信度:
- 公开裁决来源:

## Gougoubi 参数
- marketName:
- deadlineIsoUtc:
- tags:

## 规则草案
[rules text]

## 提交结果
- status:
- txHash:
- proposalAddress:

Boundaries

• Do not submit on-chain or through the UI unless the user clearly wants actual creation.
• If only asked for preparation, stop after generating the Gougoubi-ready payload.
• Surface uncertainty if earnings date or source availability is unclear.
• Prefer event-driven or close-price markets over loose valuation narratives.

Additional Resource

• For a concrete Tencent example, see examples.md.