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Polymarket Valuation Divergence

v1.0.0

Trade Polymarket markets based on valuation divergence. When your probability model differs from Polymarket's price by >threshold, enter using Kelly sizing....

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byAD88@adlai88
MIT-0
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LicenseMIT-0 · Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.
Security Scan
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Benign
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medium confidence
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Purpose & Capability
Name/description claim to trade Polymarket using a probability model; code uses a SimmerClient (simmer_sdk) and requires SIMMER_API_KEY to fetch markets, portfolio, and place trades. The requested credential is appropriate for the stated trading purpose.
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Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and the code confine actions to scanning markets, computing edges, sizing with Kelly, and executing trades. The skill exposes hooks to call arbitrary external forecast APIs (via fetch_json) and an option (--no-safeguards) that disables internal checks. Those extension points are intentional for model customization but expand the agent's ability to fetch external data and change trading behavior; review edits to get_model_probability and avoid enabling --no-safeguards for live runs unless you understand risks.
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Install Mechanism
There is no automated install spec included (no package/install step). SKILL.md metadata references pip dependency 'simmer-sdk' but the registry metadata didn't include an install step — you must ensure simmer-sdk is installed in the runtime environment. No network downloads or obscure URLs are present in the bundle itself.
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Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is declared as required; the code uses it to instantiate a trading client, which is proportionate for a trading skill. Some optional env vars (SIMMER_VALUATION_*, TRADING_VENUE) are used but not listed in the top-level registry requires block — this is operationally acceptable but worth noting.
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Persistence & Privilege
always:false and user-invocable:true (standard). The agent is allowed to invoke the skill autonomously by default (disable-model-invocation:false), which is platform normal — but because this skill can place real trades, granting autonomous invocation increases blast radius. Prefer manual invocation or strict ACLs for live trading keys.
Assessment
This skill appears to do what it says: it uses the Simmer SDK and your SIMMER_API_KEY to scan markets and place Kelly-sized trades. Before using it live: 1) Install and inspect the simmer-sdk dependency and run the script in dry-run mode to confirm behavior. 2) Treat SIMMER_API_KEY like a trading credential — verify its permissions (prefer read-only or restricted keys for testing). 3) Do not enable --no-safeguards unless you understand consequences. 4) If you customize get_model_probability to call external APIs, review the calls so the skill doesn’t leak sensitive data to unknown endpoints. 5) Consider disabling autonomous invocation or restricting the agent from running live trades until you’ve tested thoroughly.

Like a lobster shell, security has layers — review code before you run it.

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License

MIT-0
Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.
Termshttps://spdx.org/licenses/MIT-0.html

Runtime requirements

💹 Clawdis
EnvSIMMER_API_KEY

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