Polymarket Scout — Hourly Edge Detector

Scan Polymarket hourly crypto markets (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP) for edge opportunities. Detects counter-consensus setups, freshness windows, and expected value using...

Security Scan

The skill is an instruction-only Polymarket market scanner that requests no credentials, installs nothing, and its declared behavior aligns with the resources it asks for.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description claim a Polymarket hourly market scanner; SKILL.md describes fetching public Polymarket/Gamma REST odds and performing simple probability/betting math. No unrelated credentials, binaries, or config paths are requested, so requirements align with the stated purpose.

Instruction Scope

Instructions are narrowly scoped: call public Polymarket/Gamma APIs, compute edge using the provided per-asset reliability/bias parameters, apply freshness and counter-consensus rules, and return ranked opportunities. The doc does not instruct reading local files, unrelated env vars, or exfiltrating data elsewhere.

Install Mechanism

No install spec or code files are provided (instruction-only). Nothing will be written to disk or downloaded by the skill itself, minimizing install-related risk.

Credentials

No environment variables, keys, or config paths are required. The declared use of public APIs that need no keys matches the lack of credential requests.

Persistence & Privilege

Skill is not always-enabled and does not request persistent privileges or modify other skills. It relies on normal agent invocation and makes only outward API queries when run.

Assessment

This skill is instruction-only and coherent with its description: it will make outbound requests to public Polymarket/Gamma APIs and compute probability/kelly-sizing recommendations based on the biases in SKILL.md. Before installing, confirm you trust the author (source unknown) and that your agent/environment policy allows outbound HTTP to those APIs. Also remember this is a betting tool — its reported “edge” is based on heuristic TA parameters (reliabilities and biases) baked into the instructions; validate with test runs and never commit real funds without independent verification. If you want stronger assurance, ask the publisher for source code or explicit API endpoints and clarify whether any non-public APIs or credentials are ever required.

Polymarket Scout — Hourly Market Edge Detector

Scans Polymarket's hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP up/down markets for tradeable edge using the Argus strategy.

What It Does

• Fetches live Polymarket odds for hourly crypto markets via REST API
• Computes edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
• Flags counter-consensus setups (TA says UP, market says 70%+ DOWN → positive EV)
• Applies freshness guard: skips markets >92% consensus (L020)
• Returns ranked edge opportunities with bet sizing (Kelly)

Usage

Use polymarket-scout to scan current hourly markets for edge

Use polymarket-scout to check BTC 10am ET edge

Use polymarket-scout to find best Polymarket bet right now

Edge Calculation

edge = our_P - market_P
where our_P = TA-calibrated probability per asset:
  BTC: reliability 0.75, min score ±3
  ETH: reliability 0.80, slight UP bias +0.05
  SOL: reliability 0.90, UP bias +0.05
  XRP: reliability 0.70, UP bias +0.08 (CLARITY catalyst)

Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)

When TA score ≥+1 AND market DOWN >80% AND ≥20 min remaining → counter-consensus UP has positive EV. Validated: 77.8% WR on fresh primary bets.

API Integration

Uses Polymarket CLOB REST API and Gamma API (no keys required).