Polymarket Climate Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on weather extremes, climate milestones, natural disasters, and agricultural outcomes. Use when you want to capture alph...

Security Scan

The skill's code, declared requirements, and runtime instructions are coherent with its stated purpose (trading Polymarket climate markets) but there are a few documentation/default mismatches and the SIMMER_API_KEY is a sensitive, high-privilege credential you should treat carefully.

Purpose & Capability

The skill is a Polymarket trading bot and only requests the SIMMER_API_KEY and a simmer-sdk pip dependency — both are consistent with a trading integration. Minor inconsistencies: SKILL.md's risk table lists Min market volume default as $3,000 but trader.py and clawhub.json default to 1,000; registry version (0.0.3) and clawhub.json version (0.0.2) differ. These are documentation/packaging issues but not indicative of hidden capabilities.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py limit actions to market discovery, signal computation, and trade execution via the Simmer SDK. The skill documents a safe default (paper trading) and requires an explicit --live flag for real trades. The instructions do not ask the agent to read unrelated files or exfiltrate data.

Install Mechanism

No custom download/install script is present; clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' which is a normal package install pattern for this use case. No external/obscure URLs or archive extraction were observed.

Credentials

Only SIMMER_API_KEY (required) plus SIMMER_* tunables are used; this aligns with the bot's need to authenticate/trade. However, SIMMER_API_KEY is a high-privilege credential (ability to execute trades). SKILL.md warns about this; you should ensure the key's permissions are appropriate (use a paper-only key where possible) and avoid placing a live-capable key in shared environments.

Persistence & Privilege

always:false and autostart:false (cron null) reduce surprise persistence; automaton.entrypoint is set but automaton is managed and won't autostart by default. The skill can be invoked autonomously by the agent (disable-model-invocation is false), which is normal — combine that with a live-capable API key and the agent could place real trades if misused, so manage invocation policies and credentials accordingly.

Assessment

This skill appears to do what it says, but take these precautions before installing: - Treat SIMMER_API_KEY as highly sensitive: use a paper-only key for testing, and never store a live-capable key in a shared environment. Rotate keys if you suspect misuse. - Test thoroughly in paper mode (the default) and verify behavior and logs before enabling live trading. The code requires an explicit --live flag for real trades but an agent with invocation rights could call live if misconfigured. - Reconcile the documentation and tunables with the code: SKILL.md lists a $3,000 min volume but code/clawhub.json defaults to $1,000; confirm the tunables you want in the Simmer UI. - Review the simmer-sdk package (source/version) to ensure it is the expected client and has no unexpected permissions. - If you are uncomfortable with autonomous invocation, restrict the skill's ability to run automatically or require manual approval for live runs. - Optional data sources (Open-Meteo, etc.) are mentioned but not required; only provide additional API keys if you trust those services and understand the data flows.

Climate & Weather Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + NOAA/weather API data alignment — remix it with ForecastEx climate oracle feeds, satellite NDVI data for agriculture, or ensemble weather model outputs.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Climate prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing underserved categories. Polymarket has 151+ active climate markets but most are basic. This skill captures alpha on:

• Temperature extremes — record highs, heatwaves, frost events
• Natural catastrophes — hurricane counts, earthquake magnitudes, wildfire acreage
• Climate milestones — CO2 ppm thresholds, Arctic sea ice minimums
• Agricultural impacts — wheat yields, drought-driven crop failures, water allocations

Climate markets are uniquely suited for quantitative trading: the data sources are public, verifiable, and highly structured (NOAA, ECMWF, NASA).

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Seasonal Bias

1. Discover active climate/weather markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply season_bias() multiplier based on current month and event type in the question
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Seasonal Bias (built-in, no API required)

Climate events follow documented seasonal cycles. season_bias() boosts conviction when the current month aligns with peak season, and dampens it off-season:

Event type	Peak season	In-season multiplier	Off-season multiplier
Hurricane / cyclone	June–November	1.4x	0.6x
Sea ice / Arctic	July–September	1.4x	0.7x
El Niño / La Niña / ENSO	December–February	1.3x	0.9x
Wildfire / fire season	July–October	1.3x	0.8x
Heatwave / drought	June–September	1.3x	0.8x
Snowfall / blizzard	November–March	1.3x	0.7x

Example: a hurricane market at 25% in October → conviction 34% × 1.4x bias = 48% → $12 position. Same market in January → 34% × 0.6x = 20% → $5 (floor).

Remix Ideas

• ECMWF ensemble: Replace market.current_probability with model consensus probability — trade the divergence between forecast and market
• NOAA ENSO index: Feed ONI values directly to boost/reduce season_bias() for El Niño markets
• Insurance cat bond pricing: Use ILS spreads as implied probability benchmarks for hurricane markets
• Copernicus climate data: Real-time European climate services for local/regional temperature markets

Market Categories Tracked

KEYWORDS = [
    'hurricane', 'tropical storm', 'cyclone', 'tornado', 'flood',
    'drought', 'wildfire', 'earthquake', 'CO2', 'sea ice', 'Arctic',
    'El Niño', 'La Niña', 'ENSO', 'snowfall', 'heatwave', 'heat wave',
    'temperature record', 'crop yield', 'wheat', 'harvest', 'glacier',
    'rainfall', 'water shortage', 'climate', 'emissions', 'carbon',
]

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$20 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$3,000	Climate markets are less liquid
Max bid-ask spread	12%	Wider allowed for niche markets
Min days to resolution	14	Weather requires sufficient lead time
Max open positions	8	Diversify across events

Key Data Sources

• NOAA Climate Data Online: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/
• Open-Meteo API: https://open-meteo.com/ (free, no key required)
• Copernicus C3S: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/
• ForecastEx: https://forecastex.com/

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-climate-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable. Optional: OPENMETEO_API_KEY.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 30 minutes (*/30 * * * *). Weather data updates every 1–6 hours; no need to poll faster.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	25	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	3000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.12	Max bid-ask spread (0.12 = 12%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	14	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.