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Polymarket Ai Divergence

v2.2.6

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, chec...

3· 1.9k·15 current·16 all-time
byAD88@adlai88
MIT-0
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LicenseMIT-0 · Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.
Security Scan
Capability signals
CryptoRequires walletCan make purchasesRequires sensitive credentials
These labels describe what authority the skill may exercise. They are separate from suspicious or malicious moderation verdicts.
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Benign
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OpenClawOpenClaw
Suspicious
medium confidence
Purpose & Capability
The skill is a trading bot for Polymarket via the Simmer SDK; requesting a Simmer API key and interacting with Polymarket/Gamma APIs is coherent with that purpose. However, the top-level registry metadata claimed 'required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and the SKILL.md both reference SIMMER_API_KEY, and SKILL.md also instructs the user to provide WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY for live trading — this mismatch between declared requirements and the instructions is inconsistent.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md gives explicit runtime instructions (install simmer-sdk, set SIMMER_API_KEY, optionally WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY for live trading) and the code implements scanning, fee checks, kelly sizing, safeguards, and execution. The runtime instructions do not instruct the agent to read unrelated system files or to send data to unknown endpoints; external network calls are to Simmer and Polymarket (Gamma API), which matches the described purpose.
Install Mechanism
No arbitrary download URLs or extract steps are present. The package expects pip-installing simmer-sdk (declared in clawhub.json and SKILL.md). The code included in the skill means most behavior is visible and there is no hidden installer pulling code from unknown hosts.
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Credentials
The skill legitimately needs SIMMER_API_KEY. However: (1) SKILL.md instructs the user to store a WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY for live trading (a highly sensitive secret) but that variable is not declared in the manifest (clawhub.json's requires.env lists only SIMMER_API_KEY), and the top-level registry metadata initially reported 'no required env vars' — inconsistent and risky. The skill also references additional env names (AUTOMATON_MAX_BET, SIMMER_API_URL, TRADING_VENUE) without those being fully declared in the registry metadata. Asking users to place a private wallet key in an environment variable is a sensitive design decision and should be highlighted and justified.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill writes a local daily_spend.json file next to the script to track daily spend (expected for budgeting). The skill is not configured as always:true and does not request global agent configuration changes. clawhub.json indicates an automaton-managed entrypoint (ai_divergence.py) which may enable scheduled/autonomous runs in the platform — this is normal for trading bots but increases blast radius if credentials are present.
What to consider before installing
This skill appears to implement the described AI-divergence trading behavior, but there are important inconsistencies and sensitive demands you should understand before installing: - Credentials: The SKILL.md asks you to provide SIMMER_API_KEY (expected) and to store WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY (your wallet private key) as an environment variable for live trading. Storing private keys in env vars is risky because other processes or users with access to the environment could read them. Prefer using an SDK/hardware wallet integration or ephemeral signing keys if possible. If you must provide a private key, test in paper mode first and restrict the key's funds. - Metadata mismatch: The registry's top-level metadata said no required env vars, but clawhub.json and SKILL.md require SIMMER_API_KEY (and the README mentions WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY). This inconsistency means the install UI may not prompt you correctly; confirm required env names and scopes before enabling autonomous runs. - Verify the upstream SDK: The skill delegates signing/trading to simmer-sdk. Audit that package (pip simmer-sdk) yourself or run the skill in an isolated environment to confirm it behaves as described and does not exfiltrate secrets. - Run dry: Use the provided dry-run mode (no --live) and paper trading on the Simmer venue to verify scanner behavior. Review daily_spend.json creation and ensure file permissions are acceptable. - Autonomous runs: If you enable scheduled/autonomous execution with credentials present, the bot could place live trades without additional confirmations. If you want to limit risk, avoid giving it a live wallet key or restrict funds to a small amount. What would raise confidence: the author publishing clear docs showing how simmer-sdk uses WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY (and whether it can be substituted for a signer or hardware wallet), and updating the manifest to declare all required environment variables (including WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY) so the platform can surface appropriate warnings.

Like a lobster shell, security has layers — review code before you run it.

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License

MIT-0
Free to use, modify, and redistribute. No attribution required.

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