Stock Macro Market Analysis

分析A股/美股/港股大盘走势、市场情绪、资金流向、宏观经济、政策影响、板块轮动，生成市场全景分析报告

Security Scan

The skill's description matches a market-analysis tool, but the runtime instructions reference many helper scripts and a template that are missing (and the API provider for the required API key is unspecified), so the bundle is incomplete and incoherent as delivered.

Purpose & Capability

Name and description (macro/market analysis) match the requested binary (python3) and the single required env var (STOCK_DATA_API_KEY). However, the package only contains one helper (tools/sector_rotation.py) while the SKILL.md expects multiple analysis scripts; this mismatch means the shipped contents don't fully implement the stated purpose.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md instructs the agent to execute many Python scripts (index_tracker.py, market_breadth.py, capital_flow_analyzer.py, sentiment_gauge.py, macro_data_fetcher.py, policy_analyzer.py, global_linkage.py) and to write a template at templates/daily_market_report.md. Those files are not present in the bundle. The instructions also depend on an external STOCK_DATA_API_KEY but do not name the data provider or endpoints — leaving ambiguous where credentials/requests would go. Missing files and unspecified endpoints create scope and operational ambiguity and increase risk.

Install Mechanism

There is no install spec (instruction-only), which lowers risk because nothing arbitrary is downloaded or written by an installer.

Credentials

Only one environment variable (STOCK_DATA_API_KEY) is required, which is reasonable for a market-data-driven skill. However the SKILL.md does not identify the API provider or what the key grants access to; the included code (sector_rotation.py) does not use the env var, so it's unclear which (missing) scripts will need the credential.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill is not marked always:true and is user-invocable; no unexpected persistence or system-wide configuration changes are requested in the manifest or files provided.

What to consider before installing

Do not install or provide your STOCK_DATA_API_KEY yet. The SKILL.md references many helper scripts (tools/index_tracker.py, tools/market_breadth.py, tools/capital_flow_analyzer.py, tools/sentiment_gauge.py, tools/macro_data_fetcher.py, tools/policy_analyzer.py, tools/global_linkage.py) and a templates/daily_market_report.md file that are not included in the bundle — the only shipped code is tools/sector_rotation.py (which appears to be local processing code and contains no network or credential use). Before trusting this skill, ask the publisher to: (1) provide the missing scripts and the report template; (2) document exactly which market-data provider the STOCK_DATA_API_KEY is for and what endpoints the scripts call; (3) show any network calls those missing scripts make so you can verify where data (and your API key) would be sent. If you must test, run in a sandboxed environment and use a scoped/test API key. The current package is incomplete and should be treated with caution.

宏观与市场分析技能

触发条件

• "今天大盘怎么样" / "大盘分析"
• "市场情绪如何" / "现在是牛市还是熊市"
• "北向资金流向" / "主力资金怎么看"
• "最近什么板块强" / "板块轮动分析"
• "降息/加息对股市什么影响"
• "美股大跌A股会怎样"

六维市场分析框架

Agent 必须按以下六个维度逐一分析，最后综合研判。

---

维度一：大盘技术面（权重 20%）

python3 {baseDir}/tools/index_tracker.py --indices 上证指数,深证成指,创业板指,沪深300,中证500 --period daily

分析要点:

• 各主要指数涨跌幅、成交量变化
• 指数技术形态（均线、MACD、支撑阻力）
• 多指数共振 vs 分化（大盘股 vs 小盘股、成长 vs 价值） 输出:

{
  "indices": [...],
  "market_structure": "共振上涨 | 分化 | 共振下跌",
  "key_levels": {"上证支撑": 3200, "上证阻力": 3400}
}

维度二：市场广度与微观结构（权重 15%）

python3 {baseDir}/tools/market_breadth.py --market A

核心指标:

指标	多头信号	空头信号
涨跌家数比	>2:1	<1:2
涨停/跌停数	涨停>50，跌停<10	涨停<10，跌停>50
上涨家数占比	>60%	<40%
涨幅>5%家数	>200	<50
新高/新低家数	新高>新低	新低>新高

额外指标:

• 腾落线 (Advance-Decline Line)
• 新高新低差
• 均线上方个股占比（站上MA20/MA60的比例）

维度三：资金流向（权重 20%）

python3 {baseDir}/tools/capital_flow_analyzer.py --date today

追踪资金:

1. 北向资金: 沪股通 + 深股通净买入/卖出金额
   • 近1日/5日/20日净流入趋势
   • 重点加仓/减仓行业和个股
2. 主力资金: 超大单+大单净流入/流出
   • 行业资金流向排名
   • 个股主力资金Top10
3. 融资融券: 融资余额变化、融券卖出变化
   • 融资余额持续增加 → 杠杆多头加仓
   • 融券余额急增 → 做空力量增强
4. ETF资金: 重点ETF份额变化（沪深300ETF、创业板ETF、科创50ETF）
5. 新基金发行: 近期新发基金规模（增量资金观察）

资金综合判断:

{
  "north_bound": {"net_flow": "+45亿", "trend": "连续3日流入", "signal": "偏多"},
  "main_force": {"net_flow": "-80亿", "top_sectors": ["AI", "半导体"], "signal": "分化"},
  "margin": {"balance_change": "+0.3%", "signal": "中性偏多"},
  "overall": "资金面中性偏多，北向持续流入但主力分歧较大"
}

维度四：市场情绪（权重 15%）

python3 {baseDir}/tools/sentiment_gauge.py

情绪指标体系:

指标	数据源	极度恐慌	恐慌	中性	贪婪	极度贪婪
换手率(全A)	交易数据	<0.6%	0.6-0.8%	0.8-1.2%	1.2-1.8%	>1.8%
涨停家数	交易数据	<10	10-30	30-60	60-100	>100
封板成功率	交易数据	<30%	30-45%	45-55%	55-70%	>70%
两融余额变化	融资融券	连降5日	连降3日	波动	连增3日	连增5日
新股上市首日涨幅	新股数据	<50%	50-100%	100-200%	200-400%	>400%

综合情绪指数: 0-100 (0=极度恐慌, 100=极度贪婪)

经典反向指标逻辑:

• 情绪指数 < 20 → 极度恐慌，往往是底部区域 → 🟢 可能是买入机会
• 情绪指数 > 80 → 极度贪婪，往往是顶部区域 → 🔴 需要警惕风险

维度五：宏观经济（权重 15%）

python3 {baseDir}/tools/macro_data_fetcher.py --indicators GDP,CPI,PMI,M2,LPR,社融

核心宏观指标及对股市的影响:

宏观指标	利多股市	利空股市
GDP增速	超预期	低于预期
PMI	>50且上升	<50且下降
CPI	温和(1-3%)	过高(>3%)或通缩(<0)
M2增速	加速增长	增速放缓
社融	超预期放量	低于预期
LPR	下调	上调
美联储利率	降息周期	加息周期

宏观周期判断:

• 复苏期: GDP↑ PMI>50 CPI↑ → 股市上涨概率高
• 过热期: GDP高位 CPI↑↑ 货币收紧 → 注意风险
• 衰退期: GDP↓ PMI<50 → 股市下行压力
• 萧条期: GDP低位 CPI↓ 货币宽松 → 底部可能出现

维度六：政策与全球联动（权重 15%）

python3 {baseDir}/tools/policy_analyzer.py --recent 7d
python3 {baseDir}/tools/global_linkage.py --markets US,HK,A

政策分析:

• 近期重大政策/会议/讲话解读
• 产业政策：哪些行业受益/利空
• 货币政策：降准降息预期
• 财政政策：基建投资、消费刺激

全球联动:

• 隔夜美股表现 → A股开盘预判
• 美债10Y收益率变化 → 成长股压力
• 美元指数 → 人民币汇率 → 北向资金
• 大宗商品价格 → 周期板块

综合市场研判

将六维度分数加权汇总:

市场综合评分 = 
  技术面(20%) + 市场广度(15%) + 资金流向(20%) + 
  情绪(15%) + 宏观(15%) + 政策联动(15%)

综合评分	市场状态	操作建议
80-100	🟢 强势多头	可积极做多，注意控制仓位
60-79	🟢 偏多	适度参与，精选个股
45-59	⚪ 震荡	降低仓位，高抛低吸
25-44	🔴 偏空	轻仓观望，等待企稳信号
0-24	🔴 强势空头	空仓或极轻仓，但关注超跌反弹机会

每日盘前/盘后报告自动生成

按模板 {baseDir}/templates/daily_market_report.md 输出完整报告

输出规范

• 必须包含⚠️免责声明
• 数据标注来源和时间
• 关键结论标注置信度