AION Market Divergence Trader
This skill is a publishable trading template for AION Market. It compares your probability estimate with the live market price, checks market context, and only places a trade when the edge clears a configurable threshold.
This is a template. The default signal is probability divergence: if your model thinks the event is more likely than the market implies, the skill buys YES; if less likely, it buys NO. Remix the signal source with your own model, API, or research process. The skill handles trade discipline, operator output, and AION trade tagging.
When To Use
Use this skill when an agent already has a probability estimate for a specific market and needs a safe execution wrapper around that signal.
Skill Folder
This skill ships with three files:
- SKILL.md
- clawhub.json
- divergence_trader.py
Defaults
- Venue: polymarket
- Trade size: 5.0
- Minimum edge: 0.05
- Execution mode: dry-run unless
--live is passed
- Trade source:
sdk:aionmarket-trading
- Skill slug:
aionmarket-trading
Required Inputs
The skill expects:
AION_API_KEY or AIONMARKET_API_KEYMARKET_ID for the target marketMY_PROBABILITY as a decimal between 0 and 1
Optional inputs:
VENUE such as polymarket or kalshiTRADE_SIZEMIN_EDGEREASONING_PREFIX
Safety Rules
- Always fetch market context before deciding.
- Always default to dry-run. Live trading requires explicit
--live.
- Always attach
source, skill_slug, and human-readable reasoning.
- Skip trading when context reports warnings or flip-flop risk.
- Return
HOLD when the edge is smaller than the configured threshold.
Decision Logic
- Read the live market probability from market context.
- Compute
edge = my_probability - market_probability.
- If
edge >= min_edge, buy YES.
- If
edge <= -min_edge, buy NO.
- Otherwise hold.
Example Commands
Dry-run:
python divergence_trader.py --market-id 12345 --my-probability 0.62
Live trade:
python divergence_trader.py --market-id 12345 --my-probability 0.62 --amount 5 --live
Expected Operator Output
The script prints an operator-style summary:
Skill: aionmarket-trading
Venue: polymarket
Risk alerts:
- none
Decision:
- MARKET_ID: TRADE YES size=5.0 reason=edge +7.0%
Remix Ideas
- Replace
MY_PROBABILITY with a forecast model output.
- Drive
MARKET_ID from a market scanner.
- Add portfolio-aware sizing before the trade call.
- Extend the loop to poll with jitter and auto-redeem resolved positions.
key=private_key,
chain_id=137,
)
creds = polymarket.create_or_derive_api_creds()
wallet = polymarket.get_address()
print(f"Wallet: {wallet}")
print(f"CLOB API Key: {creds.api_key}")
2. Register with AION Market
check = client.check_wallet_credentials(wallet)
if not check["hasCredentials"]:
client.register_wallet_credentials(
wallet_address=wallet,
api_key=creds.api_key,
api_secret=creds.api_secret,
api_passphrase=creds.api_passphrase,
)
print(f"Wallet credentials registered for {wallet}")
else:
print(f"Wallet {wallet} already configured.")
### Step 4 — Configure Risk Limits
```python
client.update_settings(
max_trades_per_day=50,
max_trade_amount=100.0,
trading_paused=False,
auto_redeem_enabled=True,
)
settings = client.get_settings()
print(settings)
Step 5 — Kalshi Prerequisites (Optional, for Kalshi venue)
- Ensure Solana wallet is available (
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY / userPublicKey)
- Use
kalshi_quote() to request unsigned tx, locally sign, then call kalshi_submit()
- For BUY flows, provide
userPublicKey so KYC/geo checks can be evaluated upstream
Workflow: Market Search & Context
Understanding Market Data Structure
Critical: get_markets() returns events, each containing a nested markets[]
array of sub-markets. Trading fields like conditionId, clobTokenIds,
outcomePrices, negRisk, and orderPriceMinTickSize live on the sub-market, NOT the event.
import ast
# Search returns events
events = client.get_markets(q="bitcoin", limit=10)
for event in events:
print(f"Event: {event['title']}")
for sub in event.get("markets", []):
# Parse JSON strings
prices = ast.literal_eval(sub.get("outcomePrices", '["0.5","0.5"]'))
token_ids = ast.literal_eval(sub.get("clobTokenIds", '[]'))
print(f" Sub-market: {sub['question']}")
print(f" conditionId: {sub['conditionId']}")
print(f" YES price: {prices[0]}, NO price: {prices[1]}")
print(f" YES token: {token_ids[0] if token_ids else 'N/A'}")
print(f" negRisk: {sub.get('negRisk', False)}")
print(f" tickSize: {sub.get('orderPriceMinTickSize', 0.01)}")
print(f" minSize: {sub.get('orderMinSize', 5)}")
Get Market Context (REQUIRED before trading)
context = client.get_market_context("CONDITION_ID", user=wallet)
print(f"Name: {context.get('name')}")
print(f"Position: {context.get('myPosition')}")
print(f"Risk limit: {context.get('riskLimit')}")
print(f"Warnings: {context.get('warnings')}")
if context.get("warnings"):
print("⚠️ Review warnings before proceeding!")
Automatic Pre-Trade Readiness Checks
Before signing or submitting any order, the agent should automatically verify:
- wallet credentials are already registered, otherwise register them
- collateral balance is sufficient for the intended spend
- Polygon gas balance is sufficient if an onchain approval may be needed
- the required spender allowance already exists for the intended order
If allowance is insufficient and gas is available, the agent should send the approval transaction automatically instead of asking the user to do it manually.
Workflow: Trade Execution
Building a Signed Order (REQUIRED)
The trade() endpoint requires a complete EIP712-signed order from py-clob-client.
Passing "order": {} will cause a credential lookup failure — the server reads
order.signatureType to find your wallet credentials.
import ast
from py_clob_client.client import ClobClient
from py_clob_client.clob_types import ApiCreds, CreateOrderOptions, OrderArgs
# 1. Initialize CLOB client with creds (derived earlier in bootstrap)
clob = ClobClient(
"https://clob.polymarket.com",
key=private_key, # WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
chain_id=137,
creds=ApiCreds(
api_key=creds.api_key,
api_secret=creds.api_secret,
api_passphrase=creds.api_passphrase,
),
)
# 2. Extract trading params from sub-market (NOT event)
sub_market = event["markets"][0] # pick the sub-market you want to trade
condition_id = sub_market["conditionId"]
token_ids = ast.literal_eval(sub_market["clobTokenIds"])
yes_token_id = token_ids[0] # index 0 = YES, index 1 = NO
no_token_id = token_ids[1]
neg_risk = sub_market.get("negRisk", False)
tick_size = str(sub_market.get("orderPriceMinTickSize", "0.01"))
min_size = sub_market.get("orderMinSize", 5)
# 3. Build signed order — MUST use CreateOrderOptions for proper signing
signed_order = clob.create_order(
OrderArgs(
token_id=yes_token_id, # or no_token_id for NO side
price=0.55,
size=min_size, # must >= orderMinSize
side="BUY",
),
options=CreateOrderOptions(
tick_size=tick_size, # from sub-market.orderPriceMinTickSize
neg_risk=neg_risk, # CRITICAL for neg-risk markets!
),
)
# 4. Convert dataclass to dict for JSON serialization
order_dict = signed_order.dict()
Place a Trade
result = client.trade({
"marketConditionId": condition_id, # hex conditionId from sub-market
"marketQuestion": sub_market["question"], # question text
"outcome": "YES", # YES or NO
"orderSize": min_size, # number of contracts
"price": 0.55, # price per contract (0-1)
"isLimitOrder": True, # True=limit, False=market
"order": order_dict, # ← FULL signed order (never {})
"walletAddress": wallet, # ← REQUIRED
"reasoning": "Strategy edge explanation",
})
print(f"Order ID: {result.get('orderId')}")
print(f"Status: {result.get('status')}")
Default Execution Policy
For general-purpose execution, use this default policy unless the user overrides it:
- prefer
market mode
- use
2 USDC as default buy size
- derive a marketable cap from current prices or order book when using market-order helpers
- ask for a price only when the user explicitly requested a limit order and did not provide one
- report the market snapshot and final order parameters without blocking on extra confirmation
Common pitfalls:
"order": {} → server cannot find signatureType, returns credential error- Using event numeric ID as
marketConditionId → use sub-market hex conditionId
- Missing
walletAddress → "walletAddress 不能为空" error
- Not setting
neg_risk=True for neg-risk markets → invalid signature, Polymarket rejects
orderSize below orderMinSize → order rejected- Insufficient USDC balance → server returns generic
INTERNAL_ERROR
- Insufficient allowance → downstream exchange cannot spend collateral
- SDK result is empty or generic → verify recent trades and orders before reporting failure
Order types: GTC (default), FOK, GTD, FAK
Sides: BUY, SELL
Outcomes: YES, NO
Workflow: Kalshi Quote -> Sign -> Submit
Use this flow for Kalshi venue execution.
quote = client.kalshi_quote(
market_ticker="KX...",
side="YES",
action="BUY",
amount=10,
user_public_key="<solana-wallet>",
)
# Sign quote["unsignedTransaction"] locally (wallet implementation specific)
signed_tx = "<base64-signed-tx>"
submit = client.kalshi_submit(
market_ticker="KX...",
side="YES",
action="BUY",
amount=10,
quote_id=quote["quoteId"],
signed_transaction=signed_tx,
user_public_key="<solana-wallet>",
in_amount=quote.get("inAmount"),
out_amount=quote.get("outAmount"),
min_out_amount=quote.get("minOutAmount"),
)
print(submit)
# Unified positions endpoint for Kalshi (venue = kalshi)
kalshi_positions = client.get_current_positions(
user="<solana-wallet>",
venue="kalshi",
)
print(kalshi_positions)
Kalshi currently does not expose a dedicated cancel API in this SDK. Use a SELL flow (kalshi_quote -> sign -> kalshi_submit) to reduce/exit exposure.
Workflow: Order Management
# List open orders
open_orders = client.get_open_orders()
# Order history (with optional filters)
history = client.get_order_history(limit=20, order_status=2)
# Single order detail
detail = client.get_order_detail("ORDER_ID")
# Cancel one order
client.cancel_order("ORDER_ID")
# Cancel ALL orders (use with care)
client.cancel_all_orders()
Workflow: Heartbeat / Briefing
Call periodically (every 30s–15min depending on strategy frequency).
# wallet can be Polygon or Solana based on venue flow
briefing = client.get_briefing(user=wallet)
# 1. Handle risk alerts first
for alert in briefing.get("riskAlerts", []):
print(f"⚠️ {alert}")
# 2. Review open orders
open_orders = client.get_open_orders()
print(f"Open orders: {len(open_orders)}")
# 3. Scan opportunity markets
for opp in briefing.get("opportunityMarkets", [])[:5]:
print(f"Opportunity: {opp.get('id')} — {opp.get('question')}")
Workflow: Redemption
When a market settles, redeem winning positions:
client.redeem(market_id="MARKET_ID", side="YES")
Error Handling
from aionmarket_sdk import AionMarketClient, ApiError
client = AionMarketClient()
try:
result = client.get_me()
except ApiError as e:
if e.status_code == 401:
print("❌ Invalid or missing API key")
elif e.status_code == 403:
print("❌ Agent not authorized — check claim status or wallet credentials")
elif e.status_code == 429:
print("⏳ Rate limited — back off and retry")
else:
print(f"API Error {e.code}: {e.message}")
When trading, an ApiError from AION Market may still hide a successful downstream venue execution. If the response is ambiguous, query venue-specific follow-up endpoints before concluding failure (Polymarket orders/trades, or Kalshi submit/positions state).
SDK Method Reference
Agent Management
| Method | Description |
|---|
register_agent(name) | Create agent, returns API key + claim code |
claim_preview(claim_code) | Preview agent info via claim code |
get_me() | Current agent profile and balances |
get_settings() | Read risk control settings |
update_settings(...) | Update max trades, max amount, pause, auto-redeem |
get_skills(category, limit, offset) | List available strategy skills |
Market Operations
| Method | Description |
|---|
get_markets(q, limit, page, venue, events_status) | Search markets by keyword |
get_market(market_id, venue) | Single market details |
check_market_exists(market_id, venue) | Existence check |
get_prices_history(token_id, ...) | Historical prices for a token |
get_briefing(venue, since, user, include_markets) | Heartbeat: alerts + opportunities |
get_market_context(market_id, venue, user, my_probability) | Pre-trade context & risk |
get_current_positions(user, venue, ...) | Unified current positions (polymarket / kalshi) |
Wallet Management
| Method | Description |
|---|
check_wallet_credentials(wallet_address) | Check if CLOB credentials exist |
register_wallet_credentials(wallet_address, api_key, api_secret, api_passphrase) | Store encrypted CLOB credentials |
Trading Operations
| Method | Description |
|---|
trade(payload) | Place a Polymarket market/limit order |
get_open_orders(venue, market_condition_id, limit) | List unfilled orders |
get_order_history(venue, ..., limit, offset) | Historical orders with filters |
get_order_detail(order_id, venue, wallet_address) | Single order detail |
cancel_order(order_id, venue, wallet_address) | Cancel one order |
cancel_all_orders(venue, wallet_address) | Cancel all open orders |
redeem(market_id, side, venue, wallet_address) | Redeem settled position |
kalshi_quote(...) | Build unsigned Kalshi quote tx |
kalshi_submit(...) | Submit locally signed Kalshi tx |
Checklist: Ready to Trade
Once all boxes are checked, the agent is ready for strategy skills to drive
market discovery and automated trade execution.
