张氏财报分析实战操作手册-零会计基础极速排雷

快速验证利润真实性、产业链话语权、财务风险及管理效能，精准识别企业经营质量和潜在造假隐患。

Security Scan

This is an instruction-only financial-analysis manual that is internally consistent with its stated purpose: it asks for no credentials, installs nothing, and instructs only how to extract/report specific financial items and compute metrics.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (financial statement analysis, fraud/risk screening) align with the instructions: all required steps are extracting line items from financial statements and computing ratios. No unrelated binaries, env vars, or installs are requested. One minor note: the input_schema says '未提供则自动获取公开数据' (will automatically fetch public data if user doesn't provide it) but SKILL.md does not enumerate data sources or required credentials—this is plausible but should be documented.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md confines the agent to extracting named fields from income statement, balance sheet, cash flows, and notes, and performing defined calculations and heuristics. It does not instruct reading unrelated system files or secrets. A possible scope consideration: some checks reference report notes and '追溯业务经手人' (tracing business handlers), which may require parsing disclosures that include names/identifiers—still within financial-report scope but may surface PII if present in notes.

Install Mechanism

No install spec and no code files — this is instruction-only and therefore low risk from an installation perspective (nothing will be written to disk by the skill itself).

Credentials

The skill declares no required environment variables, credentials, or config paths, which is appropriate for a manual analysis guide. Caveat: the input_schema's promise to 'automatically fetch public data' could require network access or external APIs in practice; no sources or API keys are declared. If the agent will fetch from paid/third-party data providers, credentials would be needed but are not requested—ask the skill author how automatic fetching is implemented or whether the agent will prompt for data sources.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill does not request persistent presence (always:false), does not alter other skills or system settings, and has no install-time persistence. Default autonomous invocation is permitted (platform default) but not combined with other concerning privileges.

Assessment

This skill is essentially a step-by-step manual for reading financial statements and computing diagnostic ratios — it appears coherent and low-risk. Before installing or running it: 1) confirm how '自动获取公开数据' is implemented (which data sources/APIs will be accessed and whether any credentials are required); 2) avoid pasting non-public/sensitive documents into the skill (notes can contain PII or confidential counterparty details); 3) if you want to restrict network access or prefer to supply data yourself, provide the financial_data field rather than letting the agent fetch; 4) treat its outputs as heuristics, not definitive legal/financial advice — validate important conclusions with a qualified professional.

SKILL.md

name

张氏财报分析实战操作手册-零会计基础极速排雷

description

将张新民教授财务分析框架落地为可直接执行的查表、计算、定性三步法。使用者无需深厚会计基础，只需按图索骥在指定报表提取特定科目，通过简单加减乘除即可快速完成：利润真实性验证、产业链话语权判断、财务造假与巨亏隐患排查、管理效能评估、集团管控穿透等核心分析任务，精准还原企业真实经营状况。

instructions

核心原则

1. 先提取后计算：严格按照步骤从对应报表提取指定科目，不随意增减

2. 常识优先：任何违背基本商业逻辑的数据异常，都是最高优先级风险信号

3. 交叉验证：单一指标异常需结合其他子技能结果综合判断，避免误判

4. 聚焦本质：所有分析最终指向"企业是否真的靠主业赚钱，且能持续赚钱"

---

子技能1：测算利润含金量（防纸面富贵）

目标：验证账面利润是否转化为真金白银

操作步骤：

1. 从利润表提取：营业收入、营业成本、税金及附加、销售费用、管理费用、研发费用、利息费用、其他收益

2. 计算核心利润：核心利润 = 营业收入 - 营业成本 - 税金及附加 - 销售费用 - 管理费用 - 研发费用 - 利息费用

3. 从现金流量表提取：经营活动产生的现金流量净额

4. 计算核心利润获现率：核心利润获现率 = 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 / (核心利润 + 其他收益)

判定标准：

• ✅ 健康区(1.2~1.5)：利润含金量极高，不仅全额变现还多收了预付款

• ⚠️ 预警区(0.8~1.2)：利润部分变现，存在一定应收账款或存货积压

• ❌ 高危区(<0.8)：利润多为"白条"或库存，随时可能发生坏账，高度警惕造假

---

子技能2：测算"两头吃"能力（断行业地位）

目标：判断企业在产业链中的议价能力

操作步骤：

1. 从资产负债表资产方提取并相加：应收票据 + 应收账款 + 预付款项 + 合同资产（别人欠你的钱）

2. 从资产负债表负债方提取并相加：应付票据 + 应付账款 + 预收款项 + 合同负债（你欠别人的钱）

判定标准：

• 上游话语权：(应付票据+应付账款) 远大于 预付款项 → 能无偿占用供应商资金

• 下游话语权：(预收款项+合同负债) 远大于 (应收票据+应收账款) → 产品供不应求，客户提前打款

• 综合结论："你欠别人的钱"总额远大于"别人欠你的钱" → 产业链霸主，无息负债是最好的发展动力

---

子技能3：极速排雷扫描（锁定造假与巨亏隐患）

目标：一眼识别最致命的财务风险

操作步骤：

1. 排雷1：存贷双高

   • 提取：货币资金、短期借款、长期借款、利息费用

   • 判定：巨额货币资金+高额有息负债+大额利息支出 → 资金可能被挪用、冻结或造假

2. 排雷2：商誉黑洞

   • 提取：商誉、资产总额

   • 计算：商誉占比 = 商誉 / 资产总额

   • 判定：商誉占比>20%且被收购标的业绩下滑 → 存在巨额减值风险，可能瞬间吞噬利润

---

子技能4：穿透管理效能（查验营销与存货真相）

目标：检验营销投入有效性和产品销售能力

操作步骤：

1. 营销有效性

   • 提取连续两年：销售费用、营业收入

   • 计算两者增长率

   • 判定：销售费用大幅增长但营收增长缓慢/下降 → 营销无效，产品竞争力衰退

2. 存货滞销风险

   • 提取连续两年：存货、营业收入

   • 计算两者增长率

   • 判定：存货增速远大于营收增速 → 产品大量积压，未来可能计提巨额存货跌价准备

---

子技能5：解剖利润结构（查验"三支柱"与"两搅局"）

目标：识别盈利持续性，防范利润操纵

操作步骤：

1. 三支柱（利润来源）

   • 提取：核心利润（子技能1计算）、其他收益、投资收益及公允价值变动收益

   • 判定：核心利润占比<50% → 主业失能，盈利不可持续

2. 两搅局（利润操纵）

   • 提取：资产减值损失、信用减值损失

   • 判定：换帅/业绩低迷年份出现巨额减值 → 大概率是"财务洗澡"，为未来盈利腾空间

---

子技能6：检验资产质量（识别不良资产与结构失衡）

目标：区分能赚钱的"好资产"和拖后腿的"坏资产"

操作步骤：

1. 结构匹配度

   • 提取：固定资产、在建工程、营业收入

   • 判定：固定资产/在建工程狂增但营收停滞 → 产能严重闲置，投资失误

2. 结构性盈利能力

   • 计算：经营资产报酬率 = (核心利润 + 其他收益) / 平均经营资产（经营资产=总资产-货币资金-投资资产）

   • 判定：该指标长期低于行业平均 → 主业资产大而无当，缺乏竞争力

3. 个体保值性

   • 结合：资产减值损失、信用减值损失

   • 判定：连续针对特定资产计提巨额减值 → 该部分资产已沦为不良资产

---

子技能7：高阶综合评价（融合杜邦与张氏框架）

目标：立体诊断企业问题根源

操作步骤：

1. 用杜邦体系找线索：提取净资产收益率、总资产周转率、销售净利率，定位异动指标

2. 用张氏框架查病因：

   • 总资产周转率下降 → 排查资产结构，是否过度投资或并购拖累

   • 销售净利率下降 → 解剖利润结构，是否主业衰退或减值操纵

3. 母子报表交叉验证定前景：判断企业是"经营主导"还是"投资主导"，评估造血可持续性

---

子技能8：母子报表交叉验证（透视集团管控）

目标：识别集团资金流向、融资模式和业务关系

操作步骤：

1. 资金管控模式

   • 对比：母公司与合并报表的其他应付款、其他应收款

   • 判定：母公司其他应付款>>合并 → 资金高度集权（子公司资金被集中）；母公司其他应收款>>合并 → 母公司向子公司输血

2. 融资主导权

   • 对比：两表的短期借款、长期借款、利息费用

   • 判定：合并负债>>母公司 → 子公司分权融资；反之则为母公司统贷统还

3. 业务依存度

   • 对比：两表的营业收入、营业成本

   • 判定：合并收入≈母公司收入 → 子公司是配套帮手；合并收入>>母公司收入 → 子公司是独立诸侯

---

子技能9：透视成本决定机制（揪出隐性浪费与治理黑洞）

目标：从四个维度分析成本高企的真正原因

操作步骤：

1. 治理层成本：查其他应收款（大股东欠款）、预计负债（违规担保）→ 大股东掏空是致命成本

2. 决策层成本：对比同行业折旧摊销、研发费用、职工薪酬→ 战略决策锁定基本成本框架

3. 管理层成本：查存货周转率、行政管理费用→ 日常管理不善造成隐性浪费

4. 核算层成本：查会计估计变更、资产减值损失→ 警惕通过会计手段人为调节成本

---

子技能10：商业债权穿透（揪出"团伙作案"与"内鬼"）

目标：识别虚构交易和利益输送

操作步骤：

1. 查报表附注："按欠款方归集的期末余额前五名的应收账款/其他应收款"

2. 判定：债务人名称高度相似/注册地集中 → 可能是"团伙作案"配合虚构收入

3. 判定：刚发生的巨额债权直接计提100%坏账 → 本质是恶意资产掏空

4. 追溯业务经手人：特定人员频繁产生坏账 → 存在内外勾结利益输送

---

子技能11：拆解预算管理（透视内部利益博弈）

目标：通过资源倾斜判断管理层战略偏好和内部管控水平

操作步骤：

1. 一把手战略偏好：资源向研发倾斜→技术驱动；向销售倾斜→营销驱动；向薪酬倾斜→人才驱动

2. 母子预算博弈：子公司频繁借款且费用率失控 → 母公司预算管控失效

3. 预算心理弹性：薪酬差旅适度增长且带动核心利润增长 → 预算管理健康有效

input_schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "company_name": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "上市公司全称或股票代码"
    },
    "analysis_year": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "分析年度，如'2025年'或'2023-2025年'"
    },
    "financial_data": {
      "type": "object",
      "description": "可选，用户提供的具体财报数据，未提供则自动获取公开数据",
      "properties": {
        "income_statement": {"type": "object", "description": "利润表数据"},
        "balance_sheet": {"type": "object", "description": "资产负债表数据"},
        "cash_flow_statement": {"type": "object", "description": "现金流量表数据"},
        "notes": {"type": "object", "description": "报表附注关键数据"}
      }
    },
    "focus_skills": {
      "type": "array",
      "description": "可选，指定要执行的子技能编号，如[1,3,5]，默认执行全部11项",
      "items": {"type": "integer", "minimum": 1, "maximum": 11}
    }
  },
  "required": ["company_name", "analysis_year"]
}

output_schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "core_conclusion": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "一句话核心结论，明确企业整体财务状况和最大风险点"
    },
    "sub_skill_results": {
      "type": "object",
      "description": "各子技能执行结果，仅包含指定执行的子技能",
      "properties": {
        "profit_quality": {
          "type": "object",
          "description": "子技能1结果",
          "properties": {
            "core_profit": {"type": "number", "description": "核心利润（万元）"},
            "core_profit_cash_conversion": {"type": "number", "description": "核心利润获现率"},
            "assessment": {"type": "string", "description": "利润含金量评价"}
          }
        },
        "industry_position": {
          "type": "object",
          "description": "子技能2结果",
          "properties": {
            "receivables_total": {"type": "number", "description": "别人欠你的钱总额（万元）"},
            "payables_total": {"type": "number", "description": "你欠别人的钱总额（万元）"},
            "upstream_power": {"type": "string", "description": "上游话语权评价"},
            "downstream_power": {"type": "string", "description": "下游话语权评价"},
            "overall_position": {"type": "string", "description": "综合产业链地位评价"}
          }
        },
        "quick_risk_scan": {
          "type": "object",
          "description": "子技能3结果",
          "properties": {
            "deposit_loan_dual_high": {
              "type": "object",
              "properties": {
                "cash_balance": {"type": "number", "description": "货币资金（万元）"},
                "interest_bearing_debt": {"type": "number", "description": "有息负债总额（万元）"},
                "interest_expense": {"type": "number", "description": "利息费用（万元）"},
                "risk_level": {"type": "string", "description": "风险等级：无/低/中/高/极高"}
              }
            },
            "goodwill_risk": {
              "type": "object",
              "properties": {
                "goodwill_balance": {"type": "number", "description": "商誉余额（万元）"},
                "goodwill_ratio": {"type": "number", "description": "商誉占总资产比例"},
                "risk_level": {"type": "string", "description": "风险等级：无/低/中/高/极高"}
              }
            }
          }
        },
        "management_efficiency": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能4结果"},
        "profit_structure": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能5结果"},
        "asset_quality": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能6结果"},
        "comprehensive_diagnosis": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能7结果"},
        "group_control": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能8结果"},
        "cost_analysis": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能9结果"},
        "receivables_risk": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能10结果"},
        "budget_management": {"type": "object", "description": "子技能11结果"}
      }
    },
    "comprehensive_risk_assessment": {
      "type": "array",
      "description": "综合风险评估，按风险等级排序",
      "items": {
        "type": "object",
        "properties": {
          "risk_level": {"type": "string", "description": "风险等级：低/中/高/极高"},
          "risk_description": {"type": "string", "description": "风险点描述"},
          "evidence": {"type": "string", "description": "数据证据"},
          "potential_impact": {"type": "string", "description": "潜在影响"}
        }
      }
    },
    "final_suggestion": {
      "type": "string",
      "description": "最终风险提示与行动建议"
    }
  },
  "required": ["core_conclusion", "sub_skill_results", "comprehensive_risk_assessment", "final_suggestion"]
}

examples

输入示例

{
  "company_name": "XX科技",
  "analysis_year": "2025年",
  "focus_skills": [1, 2, 3, 5]
}

输出示例

{
  "core_conclusion": "XX科技2025年主业盈利能力严重下滑，利润含金量极低，存在明显的商誉减值风险，最大隐患是盈利不可持续且现金流持续恶化",
  "sub_skill_results": {
    "profit_quality": {
      "core_profit": 5200,
      "core_profit_cash_conversion": 0.32,
      "assessment": "利润含金量极差，近70%的利润未转化为现金，主要体现为应收账款增加"
    },
    "industry_position": {
      "receivables_total": 85000,
      "payables_total": 32000,
      "upstream_power": "较弱，对供应商议价能力不足",
      "downstream_power": "极弱，大量采用赊销模式",
      "overall_position": "产业链弱势地位，被上下游双向挤压"
    },
    "quick_risk_scan": {
      "deposit_loan_dual_high": {
        "cash_balance": 12000,
        "interest_bearing_debt": 68000,
        "interest_expense": 4200,
        "risk_level": "中"
      },
      "goodwill_risk": {
        "goodwill_balance": 95000,
        "goodwill_ratio": 0.28,
        "risk_level": "高"
      }
    },
    "profit_structure": {
      "core_profit_ratio": 0.35,
      "other_income_ratio": 0.42,
      "investment_income_ratio": 0.23,
      "assessment": "利润主要依赖政府补贴，主业已失去核心竞争力，盈利不可持续",
      "earnings_manipulation_risk": "低，未发现明显的财务洗澡迹象"
    }
  },
  "comprehensive_risk_assessment": [
    {
      "risk_level": "高",
      "risk_description": "商誉减值风险",
      "evidence": "商誉占总资产比例28%，2025年被收购子公司业绩未达承诺的60%",
      "potential_impact": "若全额计提商誉减值，将导致公司当年亏损约9.5亿元"
    },
    {
      "risk_level": "高",
      "risk_description": "现金流断裂风险",
      "evidence": "核心利润获现率仅0.32，经营活动现金流连续两年为负",
      "potential_impact": "若无法获得外部融资，公司将面临资金链断裂风险"
    }
  ],
  "final_suggestion": "建议规避该公司股票，密切关注其商誉减值计提情况和现金流改善迹象，待主业盈利能力恢复后再重新评估"
}