Startup Financial Model

Build investor-ready 3-statement financial models for startups: P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement. Revenue forecasting with growth assumptions, burn ra...

Security Scan

The skill is an instruction-only finance/modeling helper whose requested resources and instructions are consistent with its stated purpose.

Purpose & Capability

Name, description, and the SKILL.md all describe building 3-statement startup financial models; there are no extra declared credentials, binaries, or config paths that would be unrelated to that purpose.

Instruction Scope

The instructions are focused on collecting model inputs, building revenue/expense/cashflow/balance sheet schedules, and producing outputs for Excel/Sheets. The doc does not instruct reading system files, environment variables, or contacting external endpoints beyond suggesting other specialized skills for real-time syncing.

Install Mechanism

No install spec or code files are present (instruction-only). That minimizes on-disk risk; nothing is downloaded or installed by the skill itself.

Credentials

The skill declares no required environment variables, credentials, or config paths. That is proportionate for a modeling/instructional skill and matches the SKILL.md, which does not request secrets or external API keys.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and the skill does not request persistent system presence or privileged configuration changes. Autonomous model invocation is allowed by platform default but this skill's instructions are self-contained and do not require elevated privileges.

Assessment

This is an instruction-only modeling skill and appears coherent for building startup financial models. Before using it: (1) avoid pasting real credentials, bank statements, or PII into the chat; (2) review model outputs and assumptions before exporting or sharing (garbage-in → garbage-out risk); (3) if you plan to connect real accounting systems, prefer a dedicated connector skill (the SKILL.md already recommends qbo-automation); and (4) if you do not want the agent to invoke skills autonomously, keep autonomous invocation disabled at the agent level. Overall the skill looks appropriate for educational and modeling use.

Startup Financial Model Skill

Build complete 3-statement financial models for early-stage and growth-stage startups. This skill guides Sam Ledger through constructing investor-ready models, running scenario analysis, calculating burn/runway, and producing structured output ready for Excel or Google Sheets.

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When to Use This Skill

Trigger phrases:

• "Build a financial model for…"
• "How much runway do we have?"
• "Create a 3-statement model"
• "What's our burn rate?"
• "Model out our revenue forecast"
• "Investor asks for a 3-year model"
• "Show me base/bull/bear scenarios"

NOT for:

• Public company valuation (DCF, comps) — different methodology
• Tax filing or tax planning — use compliance workflows
• Historical bookkeeping — use QBO/accounting integrations
• Real-time actuals syncing — use qbo-automation skill
• Cap table modeling — use cap-table-manager skill

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Core Model Components

1. Revenue Model

Start by identifying the revenue driver type:

Business Type	Primary Driver	Key Metric
SaaS / Subscription	MRR/ARR growth	Churn rate, expansion MRR
Marketplace	GMV × take rate	Transaction volume
Services / Agency	Headcount × utilization	Billable hours
E-commerce	Orders × AOV	Repeat purchase rate
Usage-based	Units × price	Volume growth curve

Revenue forecasting inputs to collect:

- Current MRR/revenue (starting point)
- Monthly or annual growth rate assumption
- Churn rate (monthly, for subscription)
- New customer acquisition volume (monthly)
- ARPU / ACV (average revenue per user/contract value)
- Expansion/upsell rate (if applicable)
- Seasonality adjustments (if applicable)

SaaS Revenue Formula (monthly):

MRR(t) = MRR(t-1) 
        + New MRR (new customers × ARPU)
        + Expansion MRR
        - Churned MRR (MRR(t-1) × churn rate)

2. Expense Model (P&L)

Expense categories to model:

COGS (Cost of Goods Sold):

• Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
• Payment processing fees (% of revenue)
• Customer support costs (headcount-driven)

Operating Expenses:

Sales & Marketing:
  - Paid acquisition (CAC budget)
  - Sales team salaries + commission
  - Marketing tools / events

Research & Development:
  - Engineering salaries (FTE × loaded cost)
  - Contractor/freelance dev costs
  - Tools and licenses

General & Administrative:
  - Executive salaries
  - Legal, accounting, compliance
  - Office / remote infrastructure
  - Insurance

Headcount Planning Template:

Role | Start Date | Monthly Salary | Benefits % | Total Loaded Cost
-----|------------|----------------|------------|------------------
CTO  | Jan 2026   | $15,000        | 25%        | $18,750
Eng  | Mar 2026   | $10,000        | 25%        | $12,500
...

3. P&L Statement

Revenue
  - COGS
= Gross Profit
  Gross Margin %

  - S&M Expense
  - R&D Expense
  - G&A Expense
= EBITDA
  EBITDA Margin %

  - Depreciation & Amortization
= EBIT

  - Interest Expense
= EBT (Earnings Before Tax)

  - Income Tax
= Net Income

4. Cash Flow Statement

Three sections:

Operating Activities:
  Net Income
  + D&A (non-cash add-back)
  ± Changes in Working Capital:
    - Accounts Receivable (increase = use of cash)
    - Accounts Payable (increase = source of cash)
    - Deferred Revenue (SaaS advance payments = source)
    - Prepaid Expenses

Investing Activities:
  - CapEx (equipment, IP capitalization)
  - Security deposits

Financing Activities:
  + Capital raises (equity funding rounds)
  + Debt proceeds
  - Debt repayments
  - Dividends (rare for startups)

= Net Change in Cash
+ Beginning Cash Balance
= Ending Cash Balance

5. Balance Sheet

ASSETS
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents  ← from Cash Flow ending balance
  Accounts Receivable
  Prepaid Expenses

Non-Current Assets:
  PP&E (net of depreciation)
  Intangibles / Capitalized Software

LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable
  Deferred Revenue
  Accrued Expenses

Non-Current Liabilities:
  Long-term Debt / Convertible Notes

EQUITY
  Paid-in Capital (cumulative fundraising)
  Retained Earnings (cumulative Net Income)
  Total Equity

CHECK: Assets = Liabilities + Equity ← must balance

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Burn Rate & Runway Calculator

Gross Burn Rate

Gross Burn = Total Monthly Cash Outflows
           = COGS + OpEx (cash basis, pre-revenue)

Net Burn Rate

Net Burn = Gross Burn - Revenue Collected
         = Monthly cash out - monthly cash in

Runway

Runway (months) = Current Cash Balance ÷ Net Burn Rate

Example:
  Cash: $1,200,000
  Net Burn: $80,000/month
  Runway: 15 months

Runway with Milestones

Milestone-adjusted runway = months until Series A, profitability, or breakeven
Break-even month = month where Net Burn = $0 (revenue ≥ expenses)

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Scenario Modeling

Build three scenarios with different assumptions:

Assumption	Bear (Pessimistic)	Base (Expected)	Bull (Optimistic)
MoM Revenue Growth	5%	10%	18%
Monthly Churn	5%	2.5%	1%
CAC	$800	$500	$300
Hiring pace	50% of plan	100% of plan	120% of plan
Fundraise timing	+3 months delay	On schedule	-2 months early

Output for each scenario:

• Runway (months from today)
• Break-even month
• Cash at end of model period
• Revenue at 12/24/36 months
• Key risk: what causes bear scenario?

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SaaS-Specific Metrics

When modeling SaaS businesses, include these unit economics:

LTV (Lifetime Value):
  LTV = ARPU / Monthly Churn Rate
  Example: $500 ARPU ÷ 2% churn = $25,000 LTV

CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost):
  CAC = Total S&M Spend / New Customers Acquired
  Example: $50,000 S&M ÷ 100 new customers = $500 CAC

LTV:CAC Ratio:
  Healthy = 3:1 minimum, 5:1+ strong
  $25,000 LTV ÷ $500 CAC = 50:1 (excellent)

CAC Payback Period:
  Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %)
  Example: $500 ÷ ($500 × 70%) = 1.4 months

Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
  NRR = (Beginning MRR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / Beginning MRR
  Target: >100% = expansion offsets churn

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Output Format

Structured JSON for Export

When generating model output, produce structured data in this format:

{
  "model_meta": {
    "company": "Acme SaaS Inc.",
    "model_date": "2026-03-15",
    "currency": "USD",
    "period": "monthly",
    "horizon_months": 36
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "starting_mrr": 50000,
    "mom_growth_rate": 0.10,
    "monthly_churn_rate": 0.025,
    "gross_margin_pct": 0.70,
    "starting_cash": 1200000,
    "monthly_burn_base": 95000
  },
  "scenarios": {
    "base": {
      "runway_months": 15,
      "breakeven_month": 18,
      "arr_12m": 960000,
      "arr_24m": 2400000,
      "cash_end_of_model": 340000
    },
    "bear": { ... },
    "bull": { ... }
  },
  "monthly_projections": [
    {
      "month": 1,
      "mrr": 55000,
      "gross_profit": 38500,
      "total_opex": 90000,
      "ebitda": -51500,
      "net_burn": 51500,
      "cash_balance": 1148500
    },
    ...
  ]
}

Google Sheets Export Instructions

When producing a Sheets-ready model:

1. Output as CSV blocks per tab: Revenue Model, P&L, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet, Scenarios
2. Use formula notation where helpful: =B2*(1+$B$1) style references
3. Highlight assumption cells (color note: yellow = input, blue = formula)
4. Include a Dashboard tab with: Runway, MRR, Burn Rate, Gross Margin % as headline KPIs

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Step-by-Step Workflow

When a user asks to build a financial model:

Step 1: Intake

Collect these inputs (ask if not provided):

□ Company name and stage (pre-seed, seed, Series A?)
□ Business model (SaaS, marketplace, services, etc.)
□ Current MRR / ARR or monthly revenue
□ Current cash balance
□ Monthly headcount and loaded cost estimate
□ Key growth assumption (growth rate, sales targets)
□ Model horizon (12, 24, or 36 months?)
□ Purpose (internal planning, investor diligence, board deck?)

Step 2: Build Revenue Forecast

• Apply driver-based model for the business type
• Calculate monthly revenue for each period
• Show MRR bridge (new / expansion / churn)

Step 3: Build Expense Model

• Headcount plan with hire dates
• COGS as % of revenue or fixed
• OpEx categories per above

Step 4: Assemble 3 Statements

• P&L from revenue and expenses
• Cash flow from P&L + working capital changes
• Balance sheet from cumulative cash flow + equity raises

Step 5: Burn & Runway

• Calculate net burn per month
• Project runway from current cash
• Identify break-even month

Step 6: Scenario Analysis

• Run base, bear, bull with varied assumptions
• Summarize: how bad does it have to get before we run out of cash?

Step 7: Output

• Structured JSON or CSV for export
• Narrative summary: key risks, milestones, funding gaps
• Investor-ready summary table

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Example Usage

User: "We have $800k in the bank, burning $65k/month net, growing MRR at 8% per month from $30k base. How long is our runway and when do we break even?"

Sam's response:

Runway Analysis:

Starting MRR: $30,000 | Net Burn: $65,000/month | Cash: $800,000

Month-by-month (base case, 8% MoM growth):
  Month 1:  MRR $32,400  | Burn est. $62,500  | Cash $737,500
  Month 6:  MRR $47,600  | Burn est. $47,000  | Cash $421,000 ← near breakeven
  Month 7:  MRR $51,400  | Burn est. $44,000  | Cash $377,000 → Cash flow positive
  
Runway: ~13 months before cash hits $0 (bear) / 18+ months if growth holds (base)
Break-even: Month 6-7 at ~$50k MRR (assuming costs stay relatively flat)

Key risks:
  - Growth slows to 4%: runway drops to 9 months
  - Unexpected hiring: 2 engineers = -$25k/month → runway -4 months
  
Recommendation: Fundraise at month 8-9 (Series A prep) or hit $60k MRR as proof point first.

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Integration Points

• crypto-tax-agent — for token/equity-based compensation modeling
• cap-table-manager — for equity dilution modeling alongside funding scenarios
• kpi-alert-system — set alerts when actual vs. model variance exceeds threshold
• qbo-automation — pull actuals from QuickBooks to compare against model
• report-generator — format model output into investor-ready PDF/deck

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Reference: Key Formulas Cheat Sheet

Gross Margin %     = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100
Net Burn           = Cash Out - Cash In (monthly)
Runway (months)    = Cash Balance / Net Burn
MoM Growth         = (Current MRR - Prior MRR) / Prior MRR × 100
ARR                = MRR × 12
LTV                = ARPU / Churn Rate
CAC Payback        = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %)
Rule of 40         = Revenue Growth % + EBITDA Margin % (target ≥ 40 for SaaS)
Magic Number       = Net New ARR / Prior Quarter S&M Spend (target > 0.75)