Polymarket Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

Detects crisis and news spikes across other Polymarket markets and adjusts expected posting rates upward for post-count bins. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and sim...

Security Scan

The skill's code, instructions, and requested credentials are consistent with a Polymarket trading helper that needs a Simmer API key; nothing in the files indicates unexplained or unrelated access.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (Polymarket Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader) match the required pieces: a Simmer API key, simmer-sdk dependency, and logic that scans Polymarket markets and places trades. The only minor incoherence is that the top-level registry summary (in your prompt) stated "Required env vars: none" while clawhub.json and SKILL.md both declare SIMMER_API_KEY — the declared requirement in the package files is appropriate for the stated purpose.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py limit actions to Simmer/Polymarket operations: discovering markets, computing crisis multipliers, and placing trades. The README suggests optional remixes (e.g., Twitter API) but does not itself attempt to use Twitter credentials or read unrelated host files. The code reads only the declared SIMMER_ env vars and does not reference other system paths.

Install Mechanism

No install spec that downloads arbitrary archives; dependencies are a PyPI package (simmer-sdk) referenced in clawhub.json and SKILL.md with GitHub/PyPI links. This is a standard package install vector and proportionate to the skill's function. No suspicious external URLs or extract steps are present.

Credentials

The skill requires SIMMER_API_KEY (trading authority) and uses SIMMER_-prefixed tunables (MAX_POSITION, MIN_VOLUME, etc.). These env vars are directly tied to trading behavior and are justified. The package and README explicitly warn about not putting a live-capable key in environments used for automated runs. Note the metadata mismatch where the registry summary listed no required env vars despite files declaring SIMMER_API_KEY.

Persistence & Privilege

autostart is false and always is not set. The automaton entrypoint is trader.py but the skill defaults to paper mode and requires an explicit --live to perform real trades. Autonomous invocation capability (disable-model-invocation false) is the platform default and is not combined with broad unrelated credentials or always:true, so risk is standard for a trading skill.

Assessment

This skill is internally consistent for a Polymarket/Simmer trading helper, but take normal precautions before enabling live trading: 1) Review the simmer-sdk package source on PyPI/GitHub (the SKILL.md points at it) to confirm there are no unexpected network calls or behaviors. 2) Start in paper mode (default) and test thoroughly; do not run with --live until you trust behavior. 3) Use a restricted Simmer API key with minimal privileges or a separate "live" key stored securely (and avoid putting a live key in shared CI environments). 4) Confirm tunable limits (max position, min trade, max spread) are set to acceptable values before enabling any automation. 5) Note the small metadata inconsistency (registry summary said no env vars) — rely on clawhub.json / SKILL.md which correctly list SIMMER_API_KEY.

Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

This is a template.
The default signal uses other Polymarket markets as a crisis barometer — remix it with VIX/fear indices, Google Trends velocity, news API sentiment, or social listening platforms.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

When a geopolitical crisis erupts, politicians tweet 50% more. When crypto crashes, Elon and CZ spike their posting rates. Post-count bin markets are priced on baseline cadence — they don't factor in real-time news intensity.

This skill uses OTHER Polymarket markets as a crisis detector. Extreme probabilities on war/crypto/health markets = crisis mode = higher posting rates expected.

Signal Logic

Crisis Detection

1. Scan all non-posting markets on the account
2. Identify markets at extreme probabilities (>85% or <15%) with crisis-adjacent keywords
3. Match crisis topics to person affinity (Trump reacts to war, Elon to crypto)
4. Compute per-person crisis multiplier

Person Crisis Boosts

Person	Max Crisis Boost	Top Triggers
Trump	1.50x	War, sanctions, tariffs, impeachment
Elon	1.40x	BTC, tariffs, bans, AI
CZ	1.30x	BTC, Binance, SEC, hacks
Vitalik	1.25x	ETH, BTC, DeFi, regulation

Cross-Market Intelligence

The skill reads your entire Simmer portfolio as a sentiment layer. The more extreme markets you have imported, the better the crisis signal.

Remix Ideas

• VIX correlation: Track VIX changes as a universal fear proxy
• Google Trends velocity: Detect sudden search spikes on person-relevant topics
• News API: Real-time headline sentiment scoring
• Twitter API: Direct activity monitoring (mentions, replies, quote tweets)

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$1,000	Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Default threshold
Min days to resolution	0	Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions	8	Diversify across events

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.