Polymarket Sol Momentum

Trades Polymarket crypto prediction markets (Solana, Bitcoin, Ethereum) using CoinGecko momentum signals. Buys YES when bullish markets are underpriced vs pr...

SOL/Crypto Momentum Trader 🔮

Scans Polymarket for Solana, Bitcoin, and Ethereum prediction markets where the current market price diverges from CoinGecko momentum signals — and trades the gap.

This is a template. The default signal is CoinGecko 24h/7d price change — remix it with your own price feed, CEX funding rates, on-chain data, or any directional signal. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, edge scoring, context checks, trade execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

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Strategy

1. Fetch 24h and 7d price change for SOL, BTC, ETH from CoinGecko (free, no API key needed)
2. Compute a directional momentum signal: weighted blend of 24h (60%) and 7d (40%) change, normalized to ±1 at ±20% move
3. Scan active Polymarket markets matching solana, bitcoin, ethereum, crypto
4. Detect whether each market's question is bullish or bearish framing
5. Score divergence: edge = |expected_prob − market_prob|
6. Buy YES or NO on markets where edge exceeds threshold (default 8%)
7. Check Simmer context before each trade — skip on flip-flop warnings, high slippage, or HOLD recommendation
8. Tag all trades with skill_slug for per-skill volume attribution on Simmer

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Requirements

• SIMMER_API_KEY — your Simmer agent API key
• simmer-sdk — installed via pip (see clawhub.json)
• requests — for CoinGecko API calls
• No CoinGecko API key needed (free public endpoint)

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Configuration

All config via environment variables — no code edits needed:

Variable	Default	Description
SIMMER_API_KEY	required	Your Simmer agent API key
TRADING_VENUE	sim	sim (paper), polymarket (real USDC), kalshi (real USD)
TRADE_AMOUNT_USD	10.0	USD per trade
DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLD	0.08	Min edge to trade (8% = 0.08)
MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per cron cycle

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Running

# Install dependencies
pip install simmer-sdk requests

# Dry run (default — no real trades)
python strategy.py

# Live trading
python strategy.py --live

The script defaults to dry-run mode. Pass --live explicitly to execute real trades. When run via ClawHub automaton, set TRADING_VENUE=polymarket (or sim) in your environment — the --live flag is handled automatically by the automaton entrypoint.

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Remix Ideas

Swap the signal source:

• Replace CoinGecko with Binance/Bybit REST API for real-time price + funding rate
• Use on-chain Solana data (epoch rewards, validator stake changes) as a signal
• Pull sentiment from Twitter/Reddit via a simple keyword count API

Tune the strategy:

• Lower DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLD to 5% to trade more aggressively
• Increase TRADE_AMOUNT_USD once you've validated edge on Simmer ($SIM)
• Add a volume filter to skip illiquid markets

Extend asset coverage:

• Add "sui", "bnb", "matic" to the COINGECKO_IDS mapping
• Point at Kalshi crypto markets: set venue="kalshi" and import markets first

Layer signals:

• Run the script twice per cycle with different signals, average the outputs
• Add a momentum confirmation filter (only trade if 1h and 24h align)

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Safety Rails

Built-in safeguards (via Simmer context endpoint):

• Flip-flop detection — skips markets where your agent has been reversing positions
• Slippage check — skips markets where estimated slippage > 15%
• Edge analysis — respects HOLD recommendations from Simmer's context engine
• Simmer default limits — $100/trade, $500/day, 50 trades/day (configurable via dashboard)

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Volume Attribution

All trades are tagged with source="sdk:polymarket-sol-momentum" and skill_slug="polymarket-sol-momentum". This attributes trade volume to this skill on Simmer and qualifies for the 2% creator fee on LMSR markets you've imported.

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Links

• Simmer docs
• CoinGecko free API
• Polymarket
• Simmer skill building guide