Polymarket Micro Coin Lag Trader

v0.0.2

Micro-trades altcoin 5-min Up/Down markets when BTC leads with strong directional bias and ETH/SOL/XRP haven't caught up yet.

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by@diagnostikon

OpenClaw Prompt Flow

Install with OpenClaw

Best for remote or guided setup. Copy the exact prompt, then paste it into OpenClaw for diagnostikon/polymarket-micro-coin-lag-trader.

Previewing Install & Setup.

Prompt PreviewInstall & Setup

Install the skill "Polymarket Micro Coin Lag Trader" (diagnostikon/polymarket-micro-coin-lag-trader) from ClawHub.
Skill page: https://clawhub.ai/diagnostikon/polymarket-micro-coin-lag-trader
Keep the work scoped to this skill only.
After install, inspect the skill metadata and help me finish setup.
Use only the metadata you can verify from ClawHub; do not invent missing requirements.
Ask before making any broader environment changes.

Command Line

CLI Commands

Use the direct CLI path if you want to install manually and keep every step visible.

OpenClaw CLI

Bare skill slug

openclaw skills install polymarket-micro-coin-lag-trader

ClawHub CLI

Package manager switcher

npx clawhub@latest install polymarket-micro-coin-lag-trader

Security Scan

Capability signals

CryptoRequires sensitive credentials

These labels describe what authority the skill may exercise. They are separate from suspicious or malicious moderation verdicts.

VirusTotal

Benign

View report →

OpenClaw

Benign

high confidence

✓

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (micro-trader for 5-min Up/Down crypto markets) align with the included trader.py, the use of a Simmer SDK client, and the single required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY). Nothing in the bundle requests unrelated cloud credentials or system access.

ℹ

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py describe discovery, lead-lag detection, and trade execution and limit real trades to an explicit --live flag. The SKILL.md includes optional remix ideas (e.g., wiring a Binance websocket to 'front-run' signals) — these are outside the core template and would expand external network dependencies if implemented.

✓

Install Mechanism

No install script is included (instruction-only metadata plus a single Python file). The manifest requests the simmer-sdk via pip (PyPI/GitHub links provided). Using a third-party PyPI package is a normal moderate-risk dependency; review the simmer-sdk package before running in live mode.

✓

Credentials

Only one required secret is declared (SIMMER_API_KEY) which is appropriate for a trading client. Tunables are exposed as environment variables but are not required. SIMMER_API_KEY is high-value: treat it as sensitive and provide least-privilege credentials.

✓

Persistence & Privilege

The skill is not always-enabled, autostart is false, and model invocation is not disabled (normal). The automaton entrypoint exists for managed runs but defaults to paper trading; no indication it modifies other skills or system-wide configs.

Assessment

This skill appears to do what it says: it uses the simmer-sdk and a single SIMMER_API_KEY to paper-trade by default and only executes real trades with an explicit --live flag. Before installing or running live: (1) review the simmer-sdk package on PyPI/GitHub to ensure you trust it; (2) keep SIMMER_API_KEY secret and, if possible, use a key with limited permissions and small test funds; (3) be cautious if you extend the skill to use external feeds (the SKILL.md's Binance 'front-run' suggestion would add network dependencies and additional trust surface); and (4) run initial tests in paper/sim mode to confirm behavior before enabling --live.

Like a lobster shell, security has layers — review code before you run it.

latestvk978p9knbk1y61hwaekxr6qkyx853kdg

128downloads

0stars

8versions

Updated 1w ago

v0.0.2

MIT-0

Micro Coin Lag Trader

This is a template. The default signal detects BTC lead-lag patterns in 5-minute crypto Up/Down intervals and micro-trades altcoins that haven't caught up -- remix it with real-time BTC price feeds, multi-interval momentum, or altcoin beta weighting. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, time window grouping, lead-lag detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists 5-minute interval Up/Down markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. These markets resolve based on whether each coin's price goes up or down in a specific 5-minute window. BTC leads the crypto market. When BTC shows strong directional bias in a given interval (>60% Up or >60% Down), altcoins in the same or next interval typically follow -- but with a 1-2 interval lag in price discovery on Polymarket. This creates a window where altcoin probabilities haven't yet absorbed BTC's move.

Example: BTC in the 10:05 AM ET slot is at 70% Up (strong lead signal, above 60% threshold). ETH in the same slot is only at 35% Up -- a 35% gap behind BTC. The skill detects this lag, computes conviction = min(1.0, 0.35 / 0.30) = 1.0, and places a YES trade at full size ($10). If ETH were at 62% instead, the gap would be only 8%, conviction = min(1.0, 0.08 / 0.30) = 0.27, and size = max($2, 0.27 * $10) = $2.67.

Edge

BTC is the bellwether of crypto. When BTC's Polymarket 5-minute interval shows strong directional bias, the information propagates to altcoins with a delay. Each coin's Polymarket order book is independent -- different participants, different liquidity depths, different reaction speeds. This structural lag means altcoin probabilities systematically underreact to BTC moves in the first 1-2 intervals. The skill captures this by detecting the gap between BTC's strong signal and the altcoin's lagging probability, trading the catch-up before the market corrects.

Signal Logic

Discover active crypto Up/Down 5-minute markets via keyword search + get_markets(limit=200) fallback
Parse each question: extract coin (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP), date, and time window
Normalize time windows to 5-minute buckets and group by (date, time_bucket)
Detect BTC lead signals: BTC p > LEAD_THRESHOLD (strong Up) or BTC p < 1 - LEAD_THRESHOLD (strong Down)
For each BTC lead signal, scan same-slot and next-slot altcoins for lag:
- BTC strong Up + altcoin gap >= 8% behind BTC -> BUY YES on altcoin
- BTC strong Down + altcoin gap >= 8% above BTC -> SELL NO on altcoin
Conviction = min(1.0, gap / 0.30) -- a 30% gap means full conviction
Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction * MAX_POSITION) -- micro sizing (MAX_POSITION=10)

Remix Signal Ideas

Real-time BTC price feed: Wire Binance BTCUSDT websocket to detect BTC direction before the Polymarket probability updates -- front-run the lag with even tighter timing
Multi-interval momentum: Track BTC direction across 3+ consecutive intervals; if BTC shows 3 strong-Up intervals in a row, the lag signal is even stronger for altcoins that haven't caught up
Altcoin beta weighting: SOL has higher beta to BTC than ETH; weight SOL lag signals with higher conviction since SOL should move more when it catches up
Volume-weighted lag: If BTC's interval has high volume and the altcoin's has low volume, the lag is more likely real (thin market hasn't absorbed the information yet)

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	`10`	Max USDC per trade at full conviction (micro)
`SIMMER_MIN_TRADE`	`2`	Floor for any trade
`SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME`	`1000`	Min market volume filter (USD)
`SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD`	`0.12`	Max bid-ask spread
`SIMMER_MIN_DAYS`	`0`	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS`	`15`	Max concurrent open positions
`SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD`	`0.42`	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
`SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD`	`0.58`	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
`SIMMER_LEAD_THRESHOLD`	`0.60`	BTC must exceed this for a lead signal

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

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