Polymarket Mert Sniper

Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed. Filter by topic, cap your bets, and only trade...

Security Scan

The skill's functionality (near-expiry trading on Polymarket) matches the requests for a Simmer API key and optional wallet private key, but there are multiple manifest/instruction inconsistencies and it asks you to deposit a highly sensitive private key into environment variables—so review carefully before using live.

Purpose & Capability

The code and SKILL.md implement a Polymarket sniping tool and legitimately need a Simmer API key and (optionally) a wallet private key for live trading; network calls target simmer.markets and clob.polymarket.com which align with the stated purpose. However there are packaging/metadata mismatches: the registry summary at the top of the evaluation claimed no required env vars/primary credential, while clawhub.json and SKILL.md clearly require SIMMER_API_KEY (primary) and optionally WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY. Also tunable/env var names differ across files (e.g., SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET vs SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET_USD), which is incoherent and may cause confusion at runtime.

Instruction Scope

Runtime instructions explicitly tell users to store their WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY in an environment variable for live trading and to run pip install simmer-sdk; the code and scripts then use those env vars. Asking for and storing raw private keys in env is within the scope of a trading skill but is sensitive. The SKILL.md also allows disabling safeguards (--no-safeguards), which could reduce protections. There are no instructions or code paths that attempt to read unrelated system files or reach unexpected external endpoints, but the explicit guidance to save a private key in environment variables is a notable risk vector if you do not fully trust the SDK and code.

Install Mechanism

No high-risk download URLs are present; dependencies rely on a pip package (simmer-sdk) which is appropriate for a Python SDK. The repository has no explicit platform-level install script in the top-level install spec, but clawhub.json and SKILL.md both reference pip installing simmer-sdk. Using a public pip package is moderate risk — verify the simmer-sdk package source and version (>=0.11.1) before installing.

Credentials

Requested secrets map to the skill's purpose: SIMMER_API_KEY is expected and declared as primary in clawhub.json. WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is optional but SKILL.md guides users to store it for client-side signing. Requiring a wallet private key (even optionally) is proportionate for live trading but is high sensitivity: exposing it allows full control of funds in that wallet. Additionally, there are inconsistencies in environment variable names across SKILL.md, config schema, and clawhub.json which could cause misconfiguration and inadvertent exposure of credentials.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill is not always: true, autostart is false, and model invocation is not disabled (normal). Automaton.managed is set to true with an entrypoint, which is consistent with an automatable trading skill. There is no evidence the skill attempts to modify other skills or persist beyond its own config files.

What to consider before installing

This skill does what it claims (a Polymarket expiry-sniper) and legitimately needs a Simmer API key; however it also asks you to place a wallet private key into an environment variable for live trading — that is high-risk. Before using live: 1) Run in dry-run mode only until you’ve inspected behavior and logs. 2) Review the simmer-sdk package source and the included code (mert_sniper.py, scripts/status.py) yourself or with a developer you trust. 3) Prefer managed or delegated signing (hosted/managed wallets or an external signer) rather than dropping a raw private key into an env var; if you must use a key, use a wallet with minimal funds. 4) Note the manifest inconsistencies (missing required envs in registry summary; mismatched env var names like SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET vs SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET_USD) — confirm which variables the running code actually reads to avoid misconfiguration. 5) Avoid disabling safeguards (--no-safeguards) and limit max bet/permissions while testing. If you are not comfortable with storing private keys or verifying the SDK, do not run --live.

Mert Sniper

Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed.

Strategy by @mert — filter by topic, cap your bets, wait until near expiry, and only trade strong splits.

This is a template. The default logic (expiry + split filter) gets you started — remix it with your own filters, timing rules, or market selection criteria. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

When to Use This Skill

Polymarket only. All trades execute on Polymarket with real USDC. Use --live for real trades, dry-run is the default.

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• Trade markets that are about to resolve (last-minute conviction bets)
• Filter by topic (e.g. only SOL/crypto markets)
• Cap bet size (e.g. never more than $10)
• Only trade when odds are strongly skewed (e.g. 60/40 or better)
• Run an automated expiry-sniping strategy

Setup Flow

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk
   

2. Ask for Simmer API key

   • Get it from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab
   • Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

3. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

   • This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   • Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
   • The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed

4. Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)

   • Market filter: Which markets to scan (default: all)
   • Max bet: Maximum per trade (default $10)
   • Expiry window: How close to resolution (default 2 minutes)
   • Min split: Minimum odds skew (default 60/40)

5. Save settings to config.json or environment variables

Configuration

Setting	Environment Variable	Default	Description
Market filter	SIMMER_MERT_FILTER	(all)	Tag or keyword filter (e.g. solana, crypto)
Max bet	SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET	10.00	Maximum USD per trade
Expiry window	SIMMER_MERT_EXPIRY_MINS	2	Only trade markets resolving within N minutes
Min split	SIMMER_MERT_MIN_SPLIT	0.60	Only trade when YES or NO >= this (e.g. 0.60 = 60/40)
Max trades/run	SIMMER_MERT_MAX_TRADES	5	Maximum trades per scan cycle
Smart sizing %	SIMMER_MERT_SIZING_PCT	0.05	% of balance per trade

Quick Commands

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Running the Skill

# Dry run (default -- shows opportunities, no trades)
python mert_sniper.py

# Execute real trades
python mert_sniper.py --live

# Filter to specific markets
python mert_sniper.py --filter solana

# Custom expiry window (5 minutes)
python mert_sniper.py --expiry 5

# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python mert_sniper.py --live --smart-sizing

# Check positions only
python mert_sniper.py --positions

# View config
python mert_sniper.py --config

# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python mert_sniper.py --no-safeguards

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

1. Fetches active markets from Simmer API (optionally filtered by tag/keyword)
2. Filters to markets resolving within the expiry window (default 2 minutes)
3. Checks the price split -- only trades when one side >= min_split (default 60%)
4. Determines direction: backs the favored side (higher probability)
5. Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, market status
6. Execution: Places trade on the favored side, capped at max bet
7. Reports summary of scanned, filtered, and traded markets

Example Output

🎯 Mert Sniper - Near-Expiry Conviction Trading
==================================================

  [DRY RUN] No trades will be executed. Use --live to enable trading.

  Configuration:
  Filter:        solana
  Max bet:       $10.00
  Expiry window: 2 minutes
  Min split:     60/40
  Max trades:    5
  Smart sizing:  Disabled
  Safeguards:    Enabled

  Fetching markets (filter: solana)...
  Found 12 active markets

  Markets expiring within 2 minutes: 2

  SOL highest price on Feb 10?
     Resolves in: 1m 34s
     Split: YES 72% / NO 28%
     Side: YES (72% >= 60%)
     [DRY RUN] Would buy $10.00 on YES

  Summary:
  Markets scanned: 12
  Near expiry:     2
  Strong split:    1
  Trades executed: 0

  [DRY RUN MODE - no real trades executed]

Troubleshooting

"No markets found"

• Check your filter -- try without a filter first
• Markets may not be available (check simmer.markets)

"No markets expiring within window"

• Increase expiry window: --expiry 10 (10 minutes)
• Or run more frequently (cron every minute)

"Split too narrow"

• Lower the min split: --set min_split=0.55
• This trades more often but with less conviction

"Resolves in: 17h" on 15-min markets

• Polymarket's endDate is the event-level end-of-day, not the individual market close time
• For 15-min crypto markets (e.g. "BTC Up or Down - Feb 8, 11PM ET"), the actual close time is in the question text but not in the API
• This is a Polymarket data limitation — widen the expiry window (--expiry 1080) as a workaround, or use the split filter to find conviction opportunities regardless of timing

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
• The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
• Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>
• Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have funds on Polygon"

• Polymarket V2 (live 2026-04-28) uses pUSD (PolyUSD, 1:1 backed by USDC.e). If your wallet holds USDC.e, migrate at simmer.markets/dashboard with one click (~30s)
• If you bridged native USDC (Circle), swap to USDC.e first, then migrate to pUSD
• Full migration guide: docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration

"API key invalid"

• Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab