Polymarket Eth 5m Mtf Momentum Dyll

Multi-timeframe CEX momentum trading for Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets. Aligns 1m/3m/5m Binance returns for directional conviction. Inspired by the

Security Scan

The skill's code, instructions, and required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) are coherent with a trading bot that reads Binance prices and places trades via the Simmer SDK/API — nothing in the package indicates unrelated data access or unexplained privileges.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (multi-timeframe momentum trading for short Polymarket/Simmer ETH 5m markets) aligns with the code and declared requirements: the scripts fetch Binance klines and call Simmer API/SDK to discover markets and submit trades. The single required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) and dependency (simmer-sdk) are appropriate for this purpose.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and scripts only instruct network calls to Binance and the Simmer API and running the included Python scripts; they read SIMMER_API_KEY and optional envs (SIMMER_API_URL, TRADING_VENUE). There is a small mismatch in prose (some references to Polymarket/BTC vs ETH and Simmer) but nothing that expands scope to unrelated system data. The bot will run network operations and can place live trades when run with --live or via cron.

Install Mechanism

No download-from-URL installs; dependency is installed via pip (simmer-sdk) which is standard for Python; the package is instruction-only apart from included scripts. No risky archive downloads or obscure URLs found.

Credentials

Required env: SIMMER_API_KEY (declared in clawhub.json and SKILL.md) — appropriate and necessary to authenticate trading. The code also respects optional SIMMER_API_URL and TRADING_VENUE envs (not listed as required), which is reasonable but worth noting: changing SIMMER_API_URL could redirect API calls to a different endpoint, so users should not set it to an untrusted URL. No unrelated credentials are requested.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and autostart is false. The skill includes a cron schedule in metadata to run every minute if enabled by the platform; this is expected for a fast-market trading bot. It does not attempt to modify other skills or system-wide configurations.

Assessment

This package is a trading bot template that will read public Binance klines and use your SIMMER_API_KEY to discover markets and submit trades via the Simmer SDK/API. Before installing or running it: (1) review and audit simmer-sdk (pip package) and consider installing in a virtual environment; (2) run in dry/paper mode first and verify behavior; (3) be cautious with your SIMMER_API_KEY — live mode can place real trades and your funds could be affected; (4) confirm SIMMER_API_URL is left at the default (or set to a trusted endpoint) so your API key isn't sent to an unexpected server; (5) note small documentation mismatches (Polymarket/BTC vs ETH and references to Simmer) — confirm the target marketplace and asset are what you expect.

ETH 5m MTF Momentum

⚡ This is a template. You must configure your SIMMER_API_KEY before running.

Raw CEX momentum → Polymarket alpha. When all timeframes align, the signal is undeniable.

This bot reads the battlefield in real-time — 1-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute Binance ETH/USDT returns voting on direction. When momentum converges across timeframes, it strikes. No hesitation, no second-guessing. Pure directional conviction deployed into Polymarket 5-minute fast markets.

Inspired by the #1 trader on the Simmer leaderboard — yanksie, who dominates BTC 5m markets with a 79% win rate across 4,000+ trades. The same multi-timeframe momentum principles applied to ETH. This foundation captures the core multi-timeframe momentum approach that drives that edge.

The Edge

Three timeframes. One direction. Maximum conviction.

• r1 (1m return) — noise filter, immediate pulse
• r3 (3m return) — trend confirmation
• r5 (5m return) — dominant signal, tiebreaker

Direction = majority vote. Confidence = signal-to-noise ratio scaled against recent volatility. The bot only fires when the math says go.

What This Is — And What It Isn't

This is the foundation. The confidence threshold (0.50) is intentionally detuned. Out of the box, it trades. But the real alpha comes from tuning:

• Confidence threshold — tighten it, raise your win rate
• Eval window timing — when in the 5-minute cycle to strike
• Additional gates — order book depth, CLOB flow confirmation, candle body analysis, regime detection

These gates and logic layers can dramatically improve WR beyond the foundation. They're left to the trader to implement. The Ferrari is in the garage — you bring the driving skills.

Setup

1. Install: pip install simmer-sdk
2. Set your API key: export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...
3. Dry run: python3 mtf_momentum.py
4. Go live: python3 mtf_momentum.py --live

Configuration

Parameter	Env Var	Default	Description
Confidence Min	SIMMER_MTF_CONF_MIN	0.50	Minimum confidence to trade
Confidence Scale	SIMMER_MTF_CONF_SCALE	2.1	Volatility scaling factor
Eval Min Age	SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MIN_AGE	90	Min market age (seconds)
Eval Max Age	SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MAX_AGE	180	Max market age (seconds)
Trade Size	SIMMER_MTF_TRADE_SIZE	10	Trade size in $SIM

Quick Commands

# Dry run (paper mode)
python3 mtf_momentum.py

# Live trading
python3 mtf_momentum.py --live

# Show current positions
python3 mtf_momentum.py --positions

# Show config
python3 mtf_momentum.py --config

# Tune confidence threshold
python3 mtf_momentum.py --set conf_min=0.65

# Check portfolio status
python3 scripts/status.py

Example Output

⚡ ETH 5m MTF Momentum
==================================================
  [PAPER MODE] Use --live for real trades.

  Config: conf_min=0.50 conf_scale=2.1 eval_window=90-180s size=$10

  Fetching ETH 5m fast markets...
  Found 2 active markets

  📊 ETH 5m — Will BTC go up in the next 5 minutes?
     Market age: 112s (in eval window)
     r1=+0.08% r3=+0.15% r5=+0.22% → UP (3/3 aligned)
     vol=0.0011 conf=0.94 ✅ TRADE
     → BUY YES $10.00 | reason: MTF momentum aligned UP (conf=0.94)
     ✅ Paper trade executed (12.5 shares)

  Summary: 1 signal, 1 trade

Troubleshooting

• "No active fast markets" — ETH 5m markets run on a schedule. Wait for the next cycle.
• "Market age outside eval window" — The bot only trades during the configured window (90-180s after market open). Adjust SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MIN_AGE / SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MAX_AGE.
• "Confidence below threshold" — Momentum isn't strong enough. Lower SIMMER_MTF_CONF_MIN for more trades (lower WR) or wait for stronger signals.
• "simmer-sdk not installed" — Run pip install simmer-sdk.
• "SIMMER_API_KEY not set" — Get your key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab.

Cron

*/1 * * * * — runs every minute, checks market age, trades if in eval window.