Polymarket Divergence Trader

Trades a Simmer-indexed market when your estimated probability diverges from the live market price, with dry-run on sim by default, context checks, reasoning...

Security Scan

The skill's files, declared requirements, and runtime instructions are internally consistent with a Simmer/Polymarket divergence trading template — it asks only for a Simmer API key and expected inputs and defaults to dry-run, but you should review the automation settings and the simmer-sdk package before enabling live trading.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description match the code and metadata: the script queries market context and optionally places trades via a SimmerClient. Declared primaryEnv SIMMER_API_KEY and pip dependency simmer-sdk align with the stated purpose; no unrelated credentials or binaries are requested.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and the script confine actions to reading market context, computing an edge, and optionally calling client.trade() / client.auto_redeem(). The script reads .env and environment variables declared in clawhub.json (SIMMER_API_KEY, MARKET_ID, MY_PROBABILITY, etc.) and does not access other system paths or send data to unknown endpoints.

Install Mechanism

There is no top-level install script, but clawhub.json declares pip dependencies (simmer-sdk, python-dotenv). pip installs are proportionate to the task; the only caution is that simmer-sdk is a third-party package — review its provenance before installation.

Credentials

Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required as a primary credential; optional env vars match script arguments. The skill does load a local .env file (Path(...).with_name('.env')), which is expected but means sensitive keys in that file will be read by the script.

Persistence & Privilege

always:false (no forced inclusion), but clawhub.json includes a cron expression and automaton.managed:true so the platform can run this on a schedule. The script defaults to dry-run, but scheduled runs could execute automatically if invoked with live flags or if environment/configuration is changed — review automation settings before enabling.

Assessment

This skill appears to be what it claims: a Simmer-backed divergence trading template. Before enabling it for live/autonomous execution: 1) verify the simmer-sdk package source and inspect it (it will run network calls and perform trades), 2) keep SIMMER_API_KEY permissions minimal and store it securely (be aware the script reads a .env file), 3) test thoroughly in dry-run/sim (the code defaults to dry-run) and avoid supplying --live or changing automation to pass live flags until you're confident, 4) be cautious with auto-redeem and any automated cron runs — ensure the platform won't accidentally invoke live trades, and 5) review trade metadata (the human-readable reasoning is attached to trades and will be public in trade records).

This skill is a publishable Simmer trading template for ClawHub. It compares your probability estimate with the live market price, checks market context, and only places a trade when the edge clears a configurable threshold.

This is a template. The default signal is probability divergence: if your model thinks the event is more likely than the market implies, the skill buys YES; if less likely, it buys NO. Remix the signal source with your own model, API, or research. The skill handles trade discipline, operator output, and Simmer trade tagging.

When To Use

Use this skill when an agent already has a probability estimate for a specific Simmer-indexed market and needs a safe execution wrapper around that signal.

Skill Folder

This skill ships with three files:

• SKILL.md
• clawhub.json
• divergence_trader.py

Defaults

• Dry-run venue: sim
• Live venue: polymarket
• Trade size: 5.0
• Minimum edge: 0.05
• Execution mode: dry-run unless --live is passed
• Trade source: sdk:polymarket-divergence-trader
• Skill slug: polymarket-divergence-trader

Required Inputs

The skill expects:

• SIMMER_API_KEY
• MARKET_ID for the target market
• MY_PROBABILITY as a decimal between 0 and 1

Optional inputs:

• TRADE_SIZE
• MIN_EDGE
• REASONING_PREFIX
• LIVE_VENUE to override the live venue if you intentionally want something other than polymarket

Safety Rules

1. Always fetch market context before deciding.
2. Always default to dry-run. Live trading requires explicit --live.
3. Always attach source, skill_slug, and human-readable reasoning.
4. Skip trading when context reports warnings, severe flip-flop risk, or excessive slippage.
5. Return HOLD when the edge is smaller than the configured threshold.
6. Pass the venue explicitly by choosing the correct client venue for dry-run versus live execution.

Decision Logic

1. Read the live market probability from market context.
2. Compute edge = my_probability - market_probability.
3. If edge >= min_edge, buy YES.
4. If edge <= -min_edge, buy NO.
5. Otherwise hold.

Example Commands

Dry-run:

python divergence_trader.py --market-id 12345 --my-probability 0.62

Live trade:

python divergence_trader.py --market-id 12345 --my-probability 0.62 --amount 5 --live

Expected Operator Output

The script prints an operator-style summary:

Skill: polymarket-divergence-trader
Venue: sim
Risk alerts:
- none

Decision:
- 12345: TRADE YES size=5.00 mode=dry-run edge=+7.0%

Remix Ideas

• Replace MY_PROBABILITY with a forecast model output.
• Drive MARKET_ID from a market scanner.
• Add bankroll-aware sizing before the trade call.
• Extend the loop to poll on a cron schedule and auto-redeem winning positions.