Celebrity & Social Media Trader

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on celebrity events, viral social media moments, Elon Musk tweet counts, influencer milestones, and reality TV outcomes....

Security Scan

The skill mostly does what it claims (trades Polymarket via the Simmer SDK and defaults to paper trading), but there are metadata inconsistencies and ambiguous references to external data sources that deserve caution before use.

Purpose & Capability

The code and SKILL.md implement a Polymarket-focused trader using the Simmer SDK and require a SIMMER_API_KEY (used to instantiate SimmerClient). The declared dependency (simmer-sdk) and tunables align with the trading purpose. However, the top-level registry metadata in the provided summary claimed no required env vars/primary credential while clawhub.json and SKILL.md both require SIMMER_API_KEY — this mismatch is inconsistent and should be resolved.

Instruction Scope

Runtime instructions and the included trader.py stay within the stated trading scope: market discovery, simple signal computation, safeguards, and trade execution via SimmerClient. The SKILL.md mentions Twitter/X, SocialBlade, and other data sources as optional 'remix' signals, but the shipped code does not integrate with those APIs or request additional credentials — those references are informational only.

Install Mechanism

No install script is provided (instruction-only), which is lower risk. clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on simmer-sdk; that is expected for a Simmer-based trader. This is a moderate and traceable dependency model (PyPI/GitHub) rather than an arbitrary download.

Credentials

The skill requires a single sensitive credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) to function, which is proportionate to a trading skill. However, the registry summary incorrectly listed 'Required env vars: none' and 'Primary credential: none' while both clawhub.json and SKILL.md declare SIMMER_API_KEY as required — this discrepancy is concerning and could mislead users about required secrets. Tunables use SIMMER_* env names which is expected and non-sensitive by themselves.

Persistence & Privilege

autostart is false and always is not set; the skill does not request permanent/force-included presence. The automaton entrypoint is trader.py (managed), which is expected for an automatable trading skill. The code calls apply_skill_config() to load tunable overrides (normal for managed automata).

What to consider before installing

This skill appears to be a focused Polymarket trader that uses the Simmer SDK and defaults to paper (sim) trading unless you pass --live. Before installing: 1) Verify the source (owner and repository) and confirm the simmer-sdk package and its GitHub project are legitimate; 2) Expect to supply SIMMER_API_KEY (sensitive) — confirm what permissions that key grants at Simmer Markets and that you trust the service; 3) Resolve the metadata inconsistency (the registry summary omitted the required SIMMER_API_KEY) so you know exactly what secrets are needed; 4) Note that SKILL.md mentions optional external signals (Twitter, SocialBlade) but the shipped code does not access them — if you expect those integrations, ask the author for details and required credentials; 5) Keep live trading disabled until you review logs and observe behavior in paper mode. If you need higher assurance, request the upstream repository/source and an explanation for the metadata mismatch before providing the API key.

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Social velocity signal: Twitter/X engagement rate in first hour predicts market outcome better than Polymarket price. Remix: Twitter API v2 engagement metrics, Social Blade YouTube analytics API, Elon tweet tracker.

Edge Thesis

Celebrity markets are the most emotionally traded category on Polymarket — fans, haters, and memers all pile in. This creates large, exploitable mispricings:

• Elon tweet count markets: Elon's tweet rate is very consistent week-over-week (~350–400 tweets/week in 2026). When Polymarket prices a count as <30% likely that is already a near-certainty based on his historical rate, strong YES edge exists
• Hype-fade pattern: Markets on celebrity projects (album, film, product launch) get bid up 20–30% above true probability in the 48h around announcement, then fade as hype cools
• Reality TV voting: Reality TV outcome markets (Dancing with the Stars, Survivor) track very closely with social media engagement metrics published by Nielsen Social Content Ratings
• Feud/beef markets: Celebrity beef markets systematically overprice reconciliation (fans want to believe) — fade to NO

Remix Signal Ideas

• Social Blade: https://socialblade.com/ — YouTube/Twitch/Instagram analytics
• Twitter/X API v2: Engagement rate and impression data
• Elon Tweet Counter: https://xtracker.io/ or custom Twitter API query
• Google Trends API: Search interest as proxy for cultural salience

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	See clawhub.json	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	See clawhub.json	Min market volume filter
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	See clawhub.json	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	See clawhub.json	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	See clawhub.json	Max concurrent open positions

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk