Polymarket Bundle Cross Coin 5min Trader

Trades cross-coin divergence in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles on Polymarket. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP move together in practice -- when one coin diverges fro...

Security Scan

The skill's code, instructions, and declared requirements are consistent with a Polymarket cross-coin divergence trading bot; requested credentials and dependencies match its stated purpose and there are no obvious incoherent or hidden behaviors.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description match the code and SKILL.md: the skill discovers Polymarket 5-min Up/Down markets, computes cross-coin divergence, and places trades. The single required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) and the dependency (simmer-sdk) are proportional and expected for a trading integration.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py focus on market discovery, grouping, signal computation, and trade execution. Instructions and code reference only trading-related data and Simmer runtime features; they do not read unrelated system files, other credentials, or external endpoints outside the SDK (no evidence of data-exfiltration or broad context-gathering).

Install Mechanism

No install script is included in the package, but clawhub.json requests the pip package 'simmer-sdk' — a reasonable dependency for trading. Installing third-party packages has inherent risk; the PyPI/GitHub references are provided, so verify the upstream package/version before use or pin a known-good release.

Credentials

Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required and is justified as the trading authority. The script reads only its declared tunables from environment variables. No unrelated secrets or system config paths are requested.

Persistence & Privilege

autostart is false and always is false; the skill will not run or trade live without explicit action. Automaton entrypoint is declared for managed runtime, which is expected. There is no evidence the skill modifies other skills or system-wide settings.

Assessment

This skill appears internally consistent for a Polymarket trading bot, but take these precautions before installing: 1) Start in paper mode (default) and thoroughly backtest/observe behavior before enabling --live. 2) Verify and, if possible, pin the simmer-sdk package to a trusted release from the referenced GitHub/PyPI to avoid supply-chain risk. 3) Treat SIMMER_API_KEY as high-value: restrict its permissions, run the skill in an isolated environment, and rotate the key if you stop using the skill. 4) Review the full trader.py (complete file) for any remaining hidden logic (place order throttles, error handling, logging of sensitive data). 5) Limit position/tunables conservatively when going live and monitor trades closely.

Bundle -- Cross-Coin 5min Divergence Trader

This is a template. The default signal is cross-coin divergence detection within 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles -- remix it with on-chain correlation data or additional coins. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, time window grouping, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists "Bitcoin Up or Down", "Ethereum Up or Down", "Solana Up or Down", and "XRP Up or Down" markets for the same 5-minute windows throughout the day. Crypto assets are highly correlated -- when BTC moves up, ETH/SOL/XRP almost always follow. When one coin's market price diverges from the group consensus, it is structural mispricing that should revert.

Example: In the 10:05 AM ET window, if BTC=Up(60%), ETH=Up(55%), SOL=Down(40%), then SOL is the outlier. The group consensus is ~52% Up, but SOL is priced at 40% -- a 12% deviation that should close as correlated price action propagates.

Edge

Crypto correlation is the strongest cross-asset relationship in financial markets. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP have 30-day rolling correlations consistently above 0.80. Within a 5-minute window, the correlation is even higher because macro moves dominate and idiosyncratic moves are negligible. Polymarket prices each coin's Up/Down market independently -- different order books, different liquidity pools, different retail participants. When one coin's order book gets hit by a directional flow that doesn't appear in the others, the resulting price divergence is a mean-reversion opportunity.

Signal Logic

1. Discover active crypto Up/Down 5-minute markets via keyword search + get_markets(limit=200) fallback
2. Parse each question: extract coin (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP), date, and time window
3. Normalize time windows to 5-minute buckets for cross-coin matching
4. Group markets by (date, time_bucket) -- find windows where 2+ coins have markets
5. For each window: compute group consensus (mean probability across all coins in the window)
6. Find outliers: any coin deviating > SIMMER_MIN_DEVIATION (default 10%) from group mean
7. Trade outlier toward group mean: buy YES if below, sell NO if above
8. Size by conviction (deviation magnitude), not flat amount

Remix Signal Ideas

• On-chain correlation feed: Pull real-time BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP price feeds from CoinGecko or Binance API -- compute rolling 5-min correlation and weight the mean-reversion trade by current correlation strength
• Volume-weighted consensus: Instead of simple mean, weight each coin's contribution to the group consensus by its Polymarket volume -- higher-volume coins anchor the consensus more strongly
• Momentum filter: Check if the outlier coin has idiosyncratic news (e.g., SOL network outage) that justifies decoupling -- skip those divergences
• Multi-window confirmation: Require divergence to persist across 2+ consecutive 5-min windows before trading -- filters out noise from order book mechanics

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	40	Max USDC per trade at full conviction
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Floor for any trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	5000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.08	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	8	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_MIN_DEVIATION	0.10	Min deviation from group mean to trigger a trade

Edge Thesis

Traditional crypto exchanges maintain cross-asset consistency through arbitrage bots that trade correlated pairs in milliseconds. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each coin's Up/Down market is an independent order book with its own retail participants. 5-minute crypto Up/Down markets are particularly vulnerable because:

• Short time windows mean correlation is near-maximum (macro dominates, idiosyncratic noise is minimal)
• Each coin attracts different retail communities (BTC maxis, ETH DeFi traders, SOL memecoin traders)
• Directional flow on one coin doesn't propagate to the others
• New 5-min windows open frequently, creating fresh opportunities every few minutes
• Retail prices each coin in isolation rather than as a correlated basket

This skill treats the cross-coin bundle as a correlated group and trades the outlier back toward the consensus.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk