Polymarket Btc 5m Mtf Momentum Dyll

Multi-timeframe CEX momentum trading for Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets. Aligns 1m/3m/5m Binance returns for directional conviction. Inspired by the

Security Scan

The skill is internally consistent with its stated purpose (a Simmer/Polymarket momentum trading template): required env vars, network calls, and dependencies match the described integration and behavior.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description claim multi-timeframe momentum trading for Polymarket using Binance data and Simmer SDK; the code and clawhub.json request only SIMMER_API_KEY, talk to Binance and simmer.markets, and depend on simmer-sdk. All requested resources are appropriate for trading functionality.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md instructs installing simmer-sdk, setting SIMMER_API_KEY, and running the provided scripts. The code only accesses Binance public klines and Simmer API endpoints (and reads config tunables/environment variables declared in metadata). It does not read unrelated system files or request unrelated credentials.

Install Mechanism

No arbitrary downloads; clawhub.json lists pip: simmer-sdk which is proportional for an SDK-based trading skill. There is no extract-from-URL or unknown-host download behavior.

Credentials

Required environment variables are SIMMER_API_KEY and optional SIMMER_* tunables and SIMMER_API_URL/TRADING_VENUE — all justified by the skill's need to authenticate and configure trading behavior. No unrelated secrets (AWS keys, SSH, etc.) are requested.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and autostart is false; the skill does not request permanent elevated presence or modify other skills. It uses its SDK to read/update its own config, which is expected for a tunable skill.

Assessment

This is a trading template that will place market orders when run with a live SIMMER_API_KEY. Before using live mode: (1) run in dry/paper mode extensively and verify behavior; (2) review the simmer-sdk package and ensure you trust it; (3) limit the API key scope if possible and avoid using a live key during testing; (4) check and tighten confidence/eval window tunables and max trades to avoid unexpected live orders; (5) be aware the cron schedule (*/1 * * * *) can trigger frequent runs — ensure you want automated execution.

BTC 5m MTF Momentum

⚡ This is a template. You must configure your SIMMER_API_KEY before running.

Raw CEX momentum → Polymarket alpha. When all timeframes align, the signal is undeniable.

This bot reads the battlefield in real-time — 1-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute Binance BTC/USDT returns voting on direction. When momentum converges across timeframes, it strikes. No hesitation, no second-guessing. Pure directional conviction deployed into Polymarket 5-minute fast markets.

Inspired by the #1 trader on the Simmer leaderboard — yanksie, who dominates BTC 5m markets with a 79% win rate across 4,000+ trades. This foundation captures the core multi-timeframe momentum approach that drives that edge.

The Edge

Three timeframes. One direction. Maximum conviction.

• r1 (1m return) — noise filter, immediate pulse
• r3 (3m return) — trend confirmation
• r5 (5m return) — dominant signal, tiebreaker

Direction = majority vote. Confidence = signal-to-noise ratio scaled against recent volatility. The bot only fires when the math says go.

What This Is — And What It Isn't

This is the foundation. The confidence threshold (0.50) is intentionally detuned. Out of the box, it trades. But the real alpha comes from tuning:

• Confidence threshold — tighten it, raise your win rate
• Eval window timing — when in the 5-minute cycle to strike
• Additional gates — order book depth, CLOB flow confirmation, candle body analysis, regime detection

These gates and logic layers can dramatically improve WR beyond the foundation. They're left to the trader to implement. The Ferrari is in the garage — you bring the driving skills.

Setup

1. Install: pip install simmer-sdk
2. Set your API key: export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...
3. Dry run: python3 mtf_momentum.py
4. Go live: python3 mtf_momentum.py --live

Configuration

Parameter	Env Var	Default	Description
Confidence Min	SIMMER_MTF_CONF_MIN	0.50	Minimum confidence to trade
Confidence Scale	SIMMER_MTF_CONF_SCALE	2.1	Volatility scaling factor
Eval Min Age	SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MIN_AGE	90	Min market age (seconds)
Eval Max Age	SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MAX_AGE	180	Max market age (seconds)
Trade Size	SIMMER_MTF_TRADE_SIZE	10	Trade size in $SIM

Quick Commands

# Dry run (paper mode)
python3 mtf_momentum.py

# Live trading
python3 mtf_momentum.py --live

# Show current positions
python3 mtf_momentum.py --positions

# Show config
python3 mtf_momentum.py --config

# Tune confidence threshold
python3 mtf_momentum.py --set conf_min=0.65

# Check portfolio status
python3 scripts/status.py

Example Output

⚡ BTC 5m MTF Momentum
==================================================
  [PAPER MODE] Use --live for real trades.

  Config: conf_min=0.50 conf_scale=2.1 eval_window=90-180s size=$10

  Fetching BTC 5m fast markets...
  Found 2 active markets

  📊 BTC 5m — Will BTC go up in the next 5 minutes?
     Market age: 112s (in eval window)
     r1=+0.08% r3=+0.15% r5=+0.22% → UP (3/3 aligned)
     vol=0.0011 conf=0.94 ✅ TRADE
     → BUY YES $10.00 | reason: MTF momentum aligned UP (conf=0.94)
     ✅ Paper trade executed (12.5 shares)

  Summary: 1 signal, 1 trade

Troubleshooting

• "No active fast markets" — BTC 5m markets run on a schedule. Wait for the next cycle.
• "Market age outside eval window" — The bot only trades during the configured window (90-180s after market open). Adjust SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MIN_AGE / SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MAX_AGE.
• "Confidence below threshold" — Momentum isn't strong enough. Lower SIMMER_MTF_CONF_MIN for more trades (lower WR) or wait for stronger signals.
• "simmer-sdk not installed" — Run pip install simmer-sdk.
• "SIMMER_API_KEY not set" — Get your key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab.

Cron

*/1 * * * * — runs every minute, checks market age, trades if in eval window.