Kalshi F1 Constructor Trader

Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi using constructor (team) car performance ratings. Drivers in faster cars have structurally higher championsh...

Security Scan

The skill is internally consistent with a Kalshi trading tool: it requires the Simmer SDK and a Solana private key for live trading, its instructions and code align with that purpose, and there are no signs of unrelated or hidden data-exfiltration behavior.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description, required Python dependency (simmer-sdk), and requested credentials (SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY) align with a tool that discovers Kalshi markets via a Simmer API client and executes trades via a Solana/DFlow flow. The code implements the stated constructor/driver-rating model and trading logic; nothing extraneous (e.g., unrelated cloud credentials) is requested.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py focus on market discovery, model pricing, and trade execution. Minor inconsistencies: the top of SKILL.md initially lists only SIMMER_API_KEY but later and elsewhere (clawhub.json and the Required Credentials table) require SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY as well. The code also reads optional env vars (e.g., TRADING_VENUE, AUTOMATON_MAX_BET) that are not declared in requires.env; these look optional and used for configuration rather than exfiltration.

Install Mechanism

There is no arbitrary download/install step. The only declared dependency is the simmer-sdk PyPI package (and the repo is referenced). Requiring a package from PyPI is expected for this functionality and is proportionate to the skill's purpose.

Credentials

The skill asks for SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY, which are appropriate for API access and live Solana transactions respectively. SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY is highly sensitive but justified for live order execution. A couple of optional env vars (AUTOMATON_MAX_BET, TRADING_VENUE) are used but not listed in requires.env — this is a minor documentation gap rather than an unexplained permission.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill does not request always:true and does not appear to modify other skills or system-wide settings. clawhub.json marks the skill automaton-managed with an entrypoint, but autostart/cron are null, and the skill defaults to dry-run — live trades require an explicit --live flag.

Assessment

This skill is coherent for live trading, but take standard precautions: 1) Treat SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY as highly sensitive — prefer a purpose-limited key/account and rotate it if exposed. 2) Test thoroughly in dry-run/paper mode; do not pass --live until you understand position sizing and limits. 3) Verify the simmer-sdk package source (PyPI and GitHub) before installing, and install in an isolated environment. 4) Be aware the skill can import markets and call the Simmer/Kalshi APIs; expect network calls to those services. 5) Note minor docs gaps (some optional env vars like TRADING_VENUE and AUTOMATON_MAX_BET are referenced but not declared); double-check configuration before enabling automated runs.

This is a template. The default signal uses static constructor ratings and driver skill modifiers -- remix it with live qualifying data, FP session lap times, or car development trajectory analysis. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Constructor (team) car speed is the single strongest predictor of F1 championship outcomes. A driver in the fastest car wins the championship ~70% of the time historically. This skill rates each constructor's car performance, applies individual driver skill modifiers, and computes fair championship probabilities using a power-law model.

Key advantages:

• Car > driver -- constructor advantage explains most championship variance
• Stable signal -- car performance changes slowly (major upgrades every 3-5 races)
• Markets overweight narratives -- retail traders overreact to single race results while ignoring underlying car pace
• Power-law compounding -- small car advantages compound over a 24-race season

Signal Logic

Constructor Model

1. Rate each constructor's car performance (0-100 scale)
2. Apply individual driver skill modifiers (teammate comparison)
3. Compute effective driver rating = constructor_base + skill_modifier
4. Convert to probabilities: P(win) proportional to rating^3 (power law)
5. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
6. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge

Constructor Ratings (2025)

Constructor	Rating	Notes
Red Bull	95	Top pace, dominant qualifying
McLaren	92	Strong race pace, consistent
Ferrari	90	Great qualifier, variable race pace
Mercedes	88	Improving development trajectory
Aston Martin	82	Best of the rest

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	4	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-f1-constructor-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	4	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping trade
SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]