Kalshi Eth Staking Yield Trader

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the 4% staking yield as a fundamental price floor. When markets underprice ETH relative to the yield-implied floor,...

Security Scan

The skill's code, requirements, and instructions are consistent with a Kalshi trading bot that needs a Simmer API key and a Solana private key for live trading, but there are a few small metadata/instruction mismatches and a couple of undeclared environment variables you should verify before supplying credentials.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description, pip dependency (simmer-sdk), and the code (trader.py) all implement a trading strategy for Kalshi using a stake-yield-derived floor. Requiring SIMMER_API_KEY and a Solana private key is proportionate for a skill that discovers/imports markets and executes live trades.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py stay within the trading domain (market discovery, pricing model, order placement). Minor inconsistency: top SKILL.md metadata lists only SIMMER_API_KEY as required, but later documentation, clawhub.json, and the code indicate SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY is required for live trades. The skill does not appear to read any unrelated sensitive files or external endpoints beyond the expected Simmer/Kalshi/solana integrations.

Install Mechanism

No install spec (instruction-only plus a code file). The dependency is 'simmer-sdk' on PyPI, which is expected for this functionality; as with any third-party package, review the package source before supplying live credentials. No arbitrary download URLs or archive extraction are used.

Credentials

The primary sensitive variables (SIMMER_API_KEY, SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY) are appropriate for a trading skill. The code also reads additional environment variables that are not listed in the top-level metadata (e.g., TRADING_VENUE and AUTOMATON_MAX_BET). These are not highly sensitive, but you should be aware the skill will honor them if present. No unrelated cloud credentials or broad system tokens are requested.

Persistence & Privilege

The skill is not force-included (always: false), autostart is false, and automaton entrypoint is declared (normal for an executable skill). It does not request modification of other skills or global agent settings. Agent-autonomous invocation is allowed (platform default) — expected behavior for skills that can run trading automations.

Assessment

This skill appears to do what it claims (a Kalshi ETH staking-yield based trader). Before installing: 1) Audit the simmer-sdk package/source on PyPI/GitHub (the skill depends on it). 2) Test in dry-run/paper mode only (the default) and confirm behavior before passing --live. 3) If you enable live trading, use a wallet with limited funds and consider a dedicated API key/wallet you can revoke. 4) Note the small metadata mismatch: SKILL.md initially lists only SIMMER_API_KEY but the skill and clawhub.json also require SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY; verify you only provide that private key if you intend to trade live. 5) Be aware the script respects TRADING_VENUE and AUTOMATON_MAX_BET environment variables (not documented in the header); if you use those env vars they will affect behavior. If you need higher assurance, request a full audit of the simmer-sdk package and the remainder of trader.py (the provided file was truncated in the listing).

This is a template. The default signal uses a static 4% staking yield as a price floor -- remix it with live Lido/Rocket Pool yield data, validator queue depth, or MEV reward estimates. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

ETH staking yields approximately 4% APR, creating a fundamental floor for ETH price. Rational stakers will not sell below the yield-implied value. This skill computes that floor for each market's time horizon and trades when Kalshi prices imply ETH below the floor.

Key advantages:

• Fundamental floor -- staking yield provides a minimum return that supports price
• Time-adjusted -- yield floor scales with days to market resolution
• Conservative model -- only accounts for yield, not price appreciation upside

Signal Logic

Yield Floor Model

1. Fetch active ETH price markets from Kalshi
2. Extract price target from each market question
3. Compute yield floor: floor = base_price * (1 + yield% * days/365)
4. Compute fair probability based on target vs floor relationship
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Example (with defaults, base=$3500, yield=4%)

Market	Target	Days	Floor	Fair P	Market P	Action
ETH above $3000	$3000	30	$3511	85%	72%	BUY YES
ETH above $4000	$4000	30	$3511	40%	45%	Hold
ETH above $5000	$5000	30	$3511	15%	28%	BUY NO

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($5.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)

Remix Ideas

• Live yield API: Pull real-time staking yield from Lido/Rocket Pool
• Validator queue depth: Queue length affects future yield expectations
• MEV rewards: Include MEV as additional yield component
• Macro overlay: Adjust floor based on Fed rate decisions

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	8%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Staking yield	4.0%	Annual staking yield assumption
Base ETH price	$3500	Current ETH price baseline

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-eth-staking-yield-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_ENTRY_EDGE	0.08	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping (15%)
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_YIELD_PCT	4.0	Annual staking yield assumption
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_BASE_PRICE	3500	Current ETH price baseline

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.