Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader

Trades ETH price bin markets on Kalshi by exploiting the constraint that all bins must sum to 100%. When the sum deviates, identifies mispriced bins and trad...

Security Scan

The skill's code, instructions, and declared requirements are coherent with an automated trading tool for Kalshi via the Simmer SDK; requested credentials (SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY) are explainable for trading but are sensitive and should be provided only after auditing the SDK and running in dry-run first.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (Kalshi ETH bin distribution trading) align with the code and declared requirements: the skill uses simmer-sdk, a Simmer API key to access markets, and (for live mode) a Solana private key for DFlow/Solana transaction signing. Required pip dependency (simmer-sdk) and the Simmer API key are expected for this purpose.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md and trader.py limit behavior to market discovery, signal computation, and optional live trade execution. The doc defaults to dry-run and requires explicit --live to trade. Minor inconsistency: the SKILL.md header lists only SIMMER_API_KEY in metadata, while installation and clawhub.json also require SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY for live mode. This is explainable but should be clarified in docs.

Install Mechanism

No installer that downloads arbitrary code is present; dependency is a PyPI package (simmer-sdk) declared in clawhub.json and SKILL.md. This is a typical, low-to-moderate risk install pattern — review the simmer-sdk source before supplying credentials.

Credentials

Requested environment variables (SIMMER_API_KEY, SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY) are proportionate to a trading skill — the API key to access Simmer/Kalshi and a private key for Solana signing in live mode. These are highly sensitive credentials; the skill also reads optional tuning env vars (SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD, etc.) which are reasonable. Ensure the Solana key is only provided for live runs and is from a wallet you control with limited funds if you choose to test.

Persistence & Privilege

always:false and autostart:false; automaton entrypoint exists but is managed and not set to run automatically. The skill does not request elevated platform privileges or attempt to modify other skills. Autonomous invocation remains possible (platform default).

Assessment

This skill appears to do what it says: compute bin-distribution signals and optionally execute trades via the Simmer SDK. Before installing or supplying credentials: (1) keep to dry-run mode until you audit the simmer-sdk package and the full trader.py source; (2) only provide SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY when you understand their scopes — prefer a key/wallet with minimal funds or limited permissions for testing; (3) confirm the skill will only execute live trades with an explicit --live flag (it does by default), and (4) review network activity from simmer-sdk if you require extra assurance. The only minor documentation inconsistency is the SKILL.md header not mentioning SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY; ask the publisher to clarify that Solana key is only needed for live/DFlow transactions.

This is a template. The default signal uses the 100% sum constraint on price bins -- remix it with implied distribution fitting, volatility smile analysis, or cross-venue arbitrage. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Kalshi ETH price markets are structured as mutually exclusive bins (e.g., "ETH above $3000", "ETH $2500-$3000") that must sum to exactly 100%. When retail flow pushes individual bins out of alignment, the sum deviates from 100% and creates structural arbitrage.

Key advantages:

• Mathematical certainty -- bins MUST sum to 100%, deviations are temporary
• No external data needed -- pure internal consistency check
• Self-correcting -- market makers eventually re-align bins

Signal Logic

Sum Constraint Model

1. Fetch all active ETH price bin markets from Kalshi
2. Group bins by resolution date (weekly, monthly)
3. Sum probabilities across all bins in each group
4. If sum deviates > sum_tolerance from 100%, flag the group
5. Normalize each bin: fair = current / total_sum
6. Trade bins where |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Example (with defaults)

Bin	Market P	Fair P (normalized)	Edge	Action
ETH $2000-$2500	25%	23.1%	-1.9%	Hold
ETH $2500-$3000	35%	32.4%	-2.6%	Hold
ETH $3000-$3500	30%	27.8%	-2.2%	Hold
ETH above $3500	18%	16.7%	-1.3%	Hold
Sum	108%	100%		Overpriced

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($5.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Remix Ideas

• Implied volatility fitting: Fit a lognormal distribution to bin prices
• Cross-venue arb: Compare Kalshi bin structure to Polymarket/Betfair
• Historical mean reversion: Track how fast bin sums revert to 100%
• Options-implied distribution: Use ETH options chain for fair bin prices

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	8%	Min per-bin edge to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Sum tolerance	5%	Min sum deviation to trigger analysis
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority -- keep this credential private.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	For live	Base58-encoded Solana private key for DFlow transactions.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_ENTRY_EDGE	0.08	Min per-bin edge to trigger trade
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping (15%)
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_SUM_TOLERANCE	0.05	Min bin sum deviation to trigger analysis

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.