Kalshi Crypto Monotonicity Trader
This is a template.
The default signal enforces monotonicity on crypto price-level bins -- remix it with real-time order book data, implied volatility surfaces, or cross-exchange price feeds.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Crypto price-level markets on Kalshi price "Will BTC be above $X?" for various thresholds. By definition, P(BTC > $110k) >= P(BTC > $120k) because the first event subsumes the second. When the market violates this, we capture the arbitrage by buying the underpriced contract and selling the overpriced one.
Key advantages:
- Pure math arbitrage -- no model or opinion needed, just logical consistency
- Works for BTC and ETH -- any asset with multiple price-level markets
- Self-correcting -- violations close quickly, so early detection matters
Signal Logic
Monotonicity Check
- Fetch all crypto price-level markets (BTC above $X, ETH above $Y)
- Group by asset, sort by price level ascending
- Verify P(above lower level) >= P(above higher level) for all pairs
- When violation exceeds
violation_threshold, generate paired trades
Example (with defaults)
| Market | Level | Market P | Expected | Violation |
|---|
| BTC > $100k | $100,000 | 45% | >= 35% | -- |
| BTC > $110k | $110,000 | 35% | >= 20% | -- |
| BTC > $120k | $120,000 | 38% | <= 35% | 3% |
In the last row, P(>$120k) = 38% > P(>$110k) = 35%, violating monotonicity by 3%.
Remix Ideas
- Order book depth: Weight violations by available liquidity at each level
- Implied vol surface: Use violation patterns to infer mispriced implied volatility
- Cross-exchange arb: Compare Kalshi levels to Deribit options strikes
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|
| Violation threshold | 3% | Min probability gap to trigger trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |
| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-crypto-monotonicity-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|
python trader.py | Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD | 0.03 | Min probability gap between adjacent levels to trigger trade |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.
