Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader

Uses 7-day and 30-day price trend extrapolation to trade crypto year-end price target markets on Kalshi. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.

Security Scan

The skill appears to implement a crypto trading bot and legitimately needs a trading API key and a private key for live trades, but there are internal inconsistencies (registry metadata vs SKILL.md/code), unlisted environment usage, and high-value secrets requested — review carefully before installing or supplying keys.

Purpose & Capability

The stated purpose (Kalshi crypto momentum trader) aligns with the code: it uses a Simmer SDK client to discover/import Kalshi markets and can execute trades. Requiring a SIMMER_API_KEY and a SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY is plausible for a trading skill that executes on-chain/settlement flows. HOWEVER the registry summary at the top of the submission claims 'Required env vars: none' and 'Primary credential: none', which contradicts the SKILL.md, clawhub.json, and trader.py that all require SIMMER_API_KEY (and the manifest requires SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY). This metadata inconsistency is suspicious and should be resolved.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md explicitly instructs installing and supplying SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY and describes live trading behavior (python trader.py --live). The runtime instructions and trader.py read environment variables and call SimmerClient methods and internal _request endpoints. The SKILL.md and code reference additional environment variables (e.g., AUTOMATON_MAX_BET, TRADING_VENUE) and optional tradejournal integrations that are not declared in the top-level metadata. The instructions therefore reference env/config beyond what the registry initially advertised, and they direct the agent to perform sensitive actions (placing real trades given a private key) — this broad scope deserves caution.

Install Mechanism

There is no high-risk download/install step in the skill bundle itself (instruction-only install, with included trader.py). The SKILL.md and clawhub.json declare a pip dependency: 'simmer-sdk'. Because the skill depends on a third-party PyPI package for networked trading operations, the user should review the simmer-sdk package source (and any version differences) before installing or providing live credentials. No arbitrary URL downloads or extracted archives were found in the submission.

Credentials

The skill requires SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY — both are high-value credentials appropriate for a trading agent but sensitive. That is proportionate to executing live trades only if you intend to permit that risk. Problems: (1) the top-level registry metadata incorrectly listed no required envs, (2) trader.py and SKILL.md also reference other envs (AUTOMATON_MAX_BET, TRADING_VENUE) that were not declared in the registry 'required env' summary, and (3) accepting a raw SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY (base58 private key) grants full control of the associated wallet. Provide keys only for a dedicated low-funds wallet and after auditing simmer-sdk source.

Persistence & Privilege

always:false and autostart:false (in clawhub.json) mean the skill is not force-installed and will not auto-start on install, which is good. However automaton.managed: true with an entrypoint of trader.py means the platform may run the agent/automaton for this skill when you enable it; combined with the required private key and API key this increases blast radius if the skill is later invoked autonomously. Autonomous invocation is normal for skills, but given the sensitive credentials requested, the combination elevates risk and warrants extra caution (review code, keep autostart disabled, run in dry-run mode first).

What to consider before installing

Key points before you install or provide credentials: - There is an inconsistency: the registry listed no required env vars, but SKILL.md, clawhub.json, and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and (for live trading) SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY. Treat that metadata mismatch as a red flag and ask the publisher to correct it or provide an explanation. - SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY are high-value secrets. Only supply them if you fully trust the publisher and have reviewed the simmer-sdk package and this trader.py source. Prefer creating a dedicated wallet with minimal funds for testing and do not use your primary private key. - Run the skill in dry-run first (the code defaults to dry-run) and verify behavior: what network endpoints are contacted, what orders would be placed, and what data is transmitted. Monitor network traffic if possible. - Review the simmer-sdk package on PyPI/GitHub for malicious or unexpected network calls and for versions that match the repository referenced in SKILL.md. If the publisher's homepage/repository is missing or doesn't match the package, treat that as higher risk. - Keep autostart disabled and avoid passing --live until you have audited the code and tested in a controlled environment. Rotate any keys you use for testing afterward. - If you need more assurance, ask the publisher for a signed release, minimal-permission API credentials, or split-wallet approach (e.g., trading authority that cannot withdraw funds).

This is a template.
The default signal uses static 7d/30d momentum parameters -- remix it with live price API feeds, multiple timeframes, or volume-weighted momentum.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Crypto markets on Kalshi price year-end targets. Price momentum (7d/30d trends) is a strong predictor of whether targets will be reached. This skill extrapolates recent price trends to compute probability that each target is hit by year-end.

Signal Logic

Momentum Trend Model

1. Compute 7-day and 30-day price change ratios for BTC/ETH
2. Extrapolate current trend to year-end using exponential projection
3. Compute probability of reaching each price target under trend assumption
4. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
5. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas

• Live price API: CoinGecko/Binance for real-time trend computation
• Multiple timeframe ensemble: 1d, 7d, 30d, 90d momentum signals
• Volume-weighted momentum: Higher conviction when volume confirms
• Mean-reversion overlay: Dampen extreme trend signals

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	10%	Min model-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	3	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
python trader.py --live	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_ENTRY_EDGE	0.10	Min divergence to trigger trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_POSITION_USD	5.00	Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	3	Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Max slippage before skipping
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: [e-mail]

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.