Commodity Macro Signal
Analyze global commodity markets to extract macro signals for inflation, growth,
and supply chain dynamics using free-tier Finskills API data. Covers energy
(crude oil, natural gas), precious metals (gold, silver), industrial metals
(copper), agricultural products, and FRED/IMF commodity indices — then synthesizes
investment implications across asset classes.
Setup
API Key required — Register at https://finskills.net to get your free key.
Header: X-API-Key: <your_api_key>
Get your API key: Register at https://finskills.net — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials.
When to Activate This Skill
Activate when the user:
- Asks about oil, gold, copper, natural gas, silver, or agricultural commodity prices
- Wants to understand what rising/falling commodity prices mean for markets
- Asks "is this inflationary or deflationary?"
- Wants a commodity-driven macro analysis
- Asks about Dr. Copper, gold/silver ratio, oil equity ratio
- Wants to know how commodities affect specific sectors (energy, materials, airlines, etc.)
Data Retrieval — Finskills API Calls
1. All Commodity Spot Prices (Snapshot)
GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/prices
Extract the full commodity price dashboard:
- Energy:
crude_oil_wti, crude_oil_brent, natural_gas, heating_oil, gasoline
- Metals:
gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron_ore
- Agricultural:
corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee, cotton, sugar
2. Individual Commodity History (for trend analysis)
For key commodities, fetch 1-year daily history:
GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/history/{symbol}
Target symbols: WTI (crude oil), gold, copper, natgas, wheat
Extract: date, price, change
3. FRED Commodity Data Series
GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/fred
Lists all available FRED commodity series.
GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/fred/{seriesId}
Key series to pull:
DCOILWTICO: WTI Crude Oil Daily PriceGOLDAMGBD228NLBM: Gold Price DailyPCOPPUSDM: Copper Price MonthlyTERMCBPER24NS: Not applicable — use commodity endpoint instead
4. IMF Commodity Index
GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/imf
Extract: IMF primary commodity price index (energy, metals, food sub-indices)
Use for: broad commodity cycle positioning (secular bull/bear)
Analysis Workflow
Step 1 — Commodity Price Dashboard
Create a snapshot of all key commodities with direction signals:
For each commodity, classify:
- Near-term trend (1-month): using price change % from history
- Medium-term trend (3-month): using price change % from history
- Annual trend (1-year): YTD change
Direction = {RALLYING ↑ / FALLING ↓ / FLAT ~} based on 1M change
Step 2 — Key Macro Signal Derivation
Oil Price Signal (Economic Activity + Inflation):
- WTI > $90/bbl: Demand or supply-driven? Check supply context
- Demand-driven high prices (global growth): Bullish for equities (especially energy, materials)
- Supply-constriction high prices (OPEC cut): Stagflationary (bad for most assets)
- WTI $60–$90: Normal regime, not a major headwind
- WTI < $60: Disinflation signal; positive for airlines, transport, consumer discretionary
Gold Signal (Safe Haven + Real Rate Indicator):
Gold is inversely correlated with real interest rates (nominal rate - inflation expectations):
- Gold rising while rates rising: Unusual strength → fear of financial crisis or dollar weakness
- Gold rising while rates stable/falling: Real rates falling → inflationary signal
- Gold falling while rates rising: Normal correlation → risk-on, growth regime
Gold/Silver Ratio:
Gold_Silver_Ratio = gold_price / silver_price
- Ratio > 80: Economic uncertainty, risk-off (gold outperforms industrial silver)
- Ratio < 60: Industrial demand strong, economic expansion (silver outperforms)
Copper Signal ("Dr. Copper" — Economic Barometer):
- Copper rising: Global manufacturing expansion, China construction activity strong
- Copper falling: Global slowdown signal, watch emerging markets
- Copper/Gold Ratio: Rising ratio → economic growth; Falling → risk-off
Copper_Gold_Ratio = copper_price (in cents/lb) / gold_price (in $/oz)
When ratio rises: Yields typically follow — confirms growth regime
When ratio falls: Deflationary forces at work
Natural Gas Signal (Seasonal + Domestic):
- Winter: High nat gas = positive for utilities, LNG exporters, coal substitution
- Summer: High nat gas = heat wave demand; positive for utilities
Agricultural Commodities Signal (Food Inflation):
- Wheat > $7/bushel: Food inflation pressure, CPI food component rising
- Corn, Soy: Input cost for livestock, ethanol, food processing
Step 3 — Commodity Cycle Classification
Classify the current phase of the commodity super-cycle:
| Phase | Characteristics | Signal |
|---|
| Early Bull | Energy/metals rising from cyclical lows; USD weakening | Buy commodities, energy stocks, miners |
| Middle Bull | Broad commodity rally; tight supply; high margins | Overweight materials, energy; watch inflation |
| Late Bull | Speculative excess; soft commodities surging | Central bank tightening; equities under pressure |
| Early Bear | Commodities peak; demand destruction; rate hike impact | Short energy, reduce materials |
| Middle Bear | Broad selloff; energy struggling; metals weak | Defensive positioning |
| Late Bear | Commodity lows; capex cuts building future supply deficit | Accumulate energy/materials for next cycle |
Assign to current phase based on: direction of multiple commodity prices + interest rate environment.
Step 4 — Asset Class Implications Matrix
Based on commodity signals, generate implications for asset classes:
| Commodity Signal | Asset Class Implication |
|---|
| Oil ↑ (demand) | Energy stocks ↑; Airlines ↓; Discretionary ↓; Oil-exporting EM ↑ |
| Oil ↑ (supply cut) | All equities ↓; Gold ↑; TIPS ↑; Consumer sentiment ↓ |
| Oil ↓ | Airlines ↑; Consumer discretionary ↑; Energy stocks ↓; EM exporters ↓ |
| Gold ↑, Rates ↓ | Risk-off; Bonds ↑; USD ↓; Miners ↑ |
| Gold ↓, Rates ↑ | Risk-on; Equities ↑; Value > Growth |
| Copper ↑ | Industrials ↑; Emerging markets ↑; Materials ↑ |
| Copper ↓ | Global slowdown; Defensive sectors ↑ |
| Broad Agri ↑ | CPI food component ↑; Consumer staples mixed; EM stress |
| Broad Commodity Rally | TIPS ↑; Energy ↑; Materials ↑; Value ↑ over Growth |
| Broad Commodity Decline | Equities mixed; Discretionary ↑; Disinflation tailwind |
Step 5 — Sector-Level Impact
Map to specific equity sectors:
- Energy (XLE): Directly correlated with WTI crude
- Materials (XLB): Copper, aluminum, iron ore, potash
- Industrials (XLI): Broad commodity demand signal
- Consumer Staples (XLP): Wheat, corn, sugar as input costs
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Gasoline price as consumer purchasing power headwind
- Utilities (XLU): Natural gas as fuel input cost
- Airlines: Jet fuel (kerosene, highly correlated to crude) as major cost
- Miners/Gold stocks (GDX): Gold and silver price leverage
Output Format
╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ COMMODITY MACRO SIGNAL REPORT — {DATE} ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
🛢️ ENERGY
WTI Crude Oil: ${price}/bbl {+/-}% 1M {+/-}% 3M {+/-}% YTD
Brent Crude: ${price}/bbl {+/-}% 1M
Natural Gas: ${price}/MMBtu {+/-}% 1M
Gasoline: ${price}/gal {+/-}% 1M
Oil Signal: → {DEMAND-DRIVEN SURGE / SUPPLY CUT SURGE / NORMAL RANGE / DEFLATIONARY DROP}
🥇 PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: ${price}/oz {+/-}% 1M {+/-}% 3M {+/-}% YTD
Silver: ${price}/oz {+/-}% 1M
Platinum: ${price}/oz {+/-}% 1M
Gold/Silver Ratio: {ratio:.1f} → {RISK-OFF / NORMAL / RISK-ON}
Gold Signal: → {SAFE HAVEN DEMAND / REAL RATES FALLING / NORMAL}
⚙️ INDUSTRIAL METALS ("Dr. Copper")
Copper: ${price}¢/lb {+/-}% 1M {+/-}% 3M
Aluminum: ${price}/ton {+/-}% 1M
Iron Ore: ${price}/ton {+/-}% 1M
Copper/Gold Ratio: {ratio:.4f} → {Growth signal rising / Declining = risk-off}
Industrial Signal: → {EXPANSION / SLOWING / CONTRACTION}
🌾 AGRICULTURAL
Corn: ${price}/bu {+/-}% 1M
Wheat: ${price}/bu {+/-}% 1M
Soybeans:${price}/bu {+/-}% 1M
Coffee: ${price}¢/lb {+/-}% 1M
Agri Signal: → {FOOD INFLATION PRESSURE / STABLE / DEFLATIONARY}
📊 IMF COMMODITY INDICES
IMF All Commodities: {index} {+/-}% 3M
IMF Energy Sub-Index: {index} {+/-}% 3M
IMF Metals Index: {index} {+/-}% 3M
IMF Food Index: {index} {+/-}% 3M
Cycle Phase: → {EARLY BULL / MIDDLE BULL / LATE BULL / EARLY BEAR / LATE BEAR}
💡 MACRO SYNTHESIS
Inflationary pressure: {HIGH / MODERATE / LOW}
Growth signal: {EXPANSION / MIXED / CONTRACTION}
USD implication: {BEARISH on USD / NEUTRAL / BULLISH on USD}
📈 ASSET CLASS IMPLICATIONS
OVERWEIGHT: {asset classes and sectors benefiting from current commodity signals}
UNDERWEIGHT: {asset classes hurt by current commodity signals}
Sector Playbook:
Energy (XLE): {↑ Strong tailwind / → Neutral / ↓ Headwind}
Materials (XLB): {↑ / → / ↓}
Industrials (XLI): {↑ / → / ↓}
Airlines: {↑ / → / ↓}
Consumer: {↑ / → / ↓}
Gold Miners (GDX): {↑ / → / ↓}
🔍 KEY SIGNAL TO WATCH
{The one commodity ratio or indicator that best captures current macro regime transition,
and what a move above/below X level would imply for portfolio positioning.}
Limitations
- Commodity spot prices may lag physical markets by 1 business day.
- Supply-driven vs. demand-driven price changes require judgment — always consider news context.
- Agricultural commodity prices are highly seasonal and weather-dependent.
- The copper/gold ratio as a growth signal works best over multi-month periods, not day-to-day.
