Trading Brain

Load Travis's personal trading strategy and rules to guide aggressive trades, focusing on early-stage next-wave market opportunities and strict risk limits.

Security Scan

The skill's instructions clearly expect access to local scripts, config files, and brokerage data (Alpaca) but it declares no credentials, no installs, and does not justify reading those local paths — that mismatch is suspicious and worth investigating before use.

Purpose & Capability

The stated purpose (load a trader's rules and guide trading decisions) matches the instruction content: scanning news, following trading rules, and checking current positions. However the skill references specific integrations (a local serper script), a brokerage (Alpaca), and many local repo/memory paths which are not declared as required resources. Those references are plausible for a trading assistant, but their omission from the declared requirements is a coherence gap.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md explicitly directs the agent to read and update multiple local files and scripts (e.g., ~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh, ~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml, ~/clawd/memory/trading/*, trackers). It also instructs to 'update from Alpaca before deciding' without specifying how credentials are provided. The instructions therefore assume access to filesystem state and external brokerage data that are outside the skill's declared surface — this is scope creep and a red flag.

Install Mechanism

No install spec or code files are present (instruction-only). That minimizes disk writes or remote code installs, which is lower risk — but it also means the SKILL.md's runtime expectations (local scripts/configs) are the main attack surface.

Credentials

The skill requests no environment variables or credentials but expects access to brokerage data (Alpaca) and local config files that likely contain API keys or secrets. The absence of declared credentials is disproportionate to the behavior implied by the instructions. Any agent run that grants filesystem or brokerage access would expose sensitive secrets without the skill making that explicit.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and there are no install scripts or persistent modifications declared. Autonomous invocation is allowed by platform default; that is normal but increases risk if the agent is permitted to act on trading instructions or access secrets — consider restricting execution privileges.

What to consider before installing

This skill reads and updates specific local scripts and files and expects brokerage data (Alpaca) even though it declares no credentials or installs. Before installing or enabling it: 1) Inspect the referenced files (~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh, ~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml, ~/clawd/memory/trading/*) to see if they contain API keys or other secrets. 2) Do not grant filesystem or Alpaca API access to the agent until you verify those files and scripts are trustworthy. 3) Prefer explicit environment variables or an authorization prompt for any brokerage keys instead of implicit file access. 4) If you plan to let the agent execute trades, require explicit, human-confirmed approval for each order (no autonomous live trading) and test in a sandbox/demo account. 5) If you want to proceed, ask the skill author to (a) declare required credentials and integrations, (b) explain how Alpaca access is obtained and limited, and (c) remove or document any file reads so you can audit them. These steps reduce the risk of accidental secret exposure or unexpected trading actions.

Load Travis's personal trading strategy, rules, and mental models into the current session. Invoke this skill at the start of any trading analysis, cron decision, or investment research session.

When to Use

• Starting a trading cron (pre-market, mid-morning, close review)
• Making a buy/sell/hold decision
• Researching a new position or sector
• Running a next-wave scan
• Any time you need to think like Travis's trading partner, not just a generic AI

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Mission

$100K → $150K ASAP on Account 1. Aggressive. Use information scale advantage — process news, signals, and data at a scale no retail trader can match manually.

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The Core Edge: Information Scale

Sources to scan (in order of freshness)

1. Serper (Google News) — ~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh "query" 5 news — USE THIS FIRST, fresher than Brave
2. X/Twitter — breaking news, political signals, sentiment
3. Polymarket — prediction market odds shifts >10% = tradeable signal
4. Reddit — r/wallstreetbets (meme/sentiment), r/stocks, r/cryptocurrency
5. SCMP / FT — Asia/China macro, Taiwan, trade war signals

What to look for

• Geopolitical shifts (wars, sanctions, tariffs, elections)
• Fed signals (rate decisions, Powell tone, PCE/CPI surprises)
• Earnings surprises + guidance beats/misses
• Social media viral moments (meme stocks, crypto pumps)
• Policy announcements with clear market impact

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🌊 Next Wave Mindset (Most Important)

Don't chase what's already high. Find what's NEXT.

By the time CNBC is talking about it, the easy money is gone.

The 3-Act Framework

Every mega-trend matures through 3 acts:

Act 1 — Early: Ignored, boring, hated. Smart money quietly accumulating.
Act 2 — Mid:   CNBC coverage, analyst upgrades, retail arrives. Good but crowded.
Act 3 — Late:  Euphoria, everyone knows. Risk/reward terrible. AVOID.

Historical examples:

• AI: NVDA chips (Act 1✅) → Cloud infra (Act 2) → AI apps/SaaS (Act 3 ❌)
• Energy crisis: Oil majors (Act 1✅) → LNG shippers (Act 2) → Solar subsidies (Act 3 ❌)
• Crypto '21: BTC (Act 1✅) → Altcoins (Act 2) → NFTs (Act 3 ❌)

How to Find Act 1

Ask these questions:

• What does the current hot sector depend on upstream? (AI → power → cooling → rare earth)
• What gets built because of the trend? (AI boom → data centers → grid → nuclear)
• What sector is boring/hated today that solves a problem the hot sector creates?
• What did Buffett/sovereign funds/insiders quietly buy 6-12 months ago?

Current Next-Wave Candidates (Feb 2026)

Candidate	Why	Tickers to watch
Power infrastructure	AI is power-hungry, grid can't keep up	CEG, VST, ETN
Cooling & thermal	Every AI chip needs cooling (VRT moved — what's next?)	TBD
Humanoid robotics parts	Not robot makers (priced) — actuators, sensors, servos	TBD
Cybersecurity	Every AI deployment = new attack surface, undervalued	CRWD, S, PANW
AI infra outside US	Middle East, SE Asia sovereign AI buildout	TBD
Commodity inputs	Copper (wiring), rare earths (robot magnets), helium	FCX, MP

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Trading Rules

Risk Management (non-negotiable)

• Max 1% loss per trade
• Max 3% daily drawdown — stop trading if hit
• Max 5 open positions at once
• No single position >20% of portfolio
• Cut losers fast. Let winners run.

Entry Signals

• Breaking news with clear, direct market impact
• Polymarket odds shift >10% on a tradeable event
• Earnings surprise + guidance beat
• Policy announcement (tariffs, sanctions, rate changes)
• Social media momentum building (not after it's viral)

Position Types

• News trade — quick in/out, hours to 1 day
• Macro bet — hold weeks/months on a policy theme
• Earnings play — pre/post earnings momentum
• Next wave — early position, hold until Act 2 begins

Current Positions (update from Alpaca before deciding)

Config: ~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml Account ID: Account 1 (manual trading)

• NVDA, ARM, TSM, AVGO, VRT — core AI semi basket

TQQQ/SQQQ Daily Direction

• $5K per trade on Account 2
• Only trade if conviction >55%
• Tracker: ~/clawd/memory/trading/tqqq-sqqq-tracker.json

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Communication Rules

• Morning report only — don't ping Travis mid-day
• Exception: Alert immediately if >5% swing on any position OR $150K target hit
• Keep reports tight — he's busy
• Document every trade: thesis, outcome, lesson learned → ~/clawd/memory/trades.md

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Weekly Next-Wave Task

1. Ask: "What does the current hot trade NEED that isn't priced in yet?"
2. Check big tech capex announcements — follow the money downstream
3. Scan supply chain bottleneck reports
4. Update candidates in ~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md

Full strategy details: ~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md Trade history & lessons: ~/clawd/memory/trades.md Next-wave research: ~/clawd/memory/trading/NEXT-WAVE-RESEARCH.md