Polymarket Copytrading

fork of@simmer/polymarket-copytrading(1.8.4)

Mirror positions from top Polymarket traders using Simmer API. Size-weighted aggregation across multiple wallets.

Install

openclaw skills install @richducat/dolph-copytrading

Polymarket Copytrading

Mirror positions from successful Polymarket traders using the Simmer SDK.

This is a template. The default logic mirrors whale wallets by size-weighted allocation — remix it with your own wallet selection criteria, position filters, or rebalancing rules. The skill handles all the plumbing (wallet fetching, conflict detection, trade execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

Copytrade whale wallets on Polymarket
Paper trade (copytrade with $SIM) to test strategies without real money
Check what positions a wallet holds
Follow specific trader addresses
Check their copytrading positions

Quick Commands

bash

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Finding Whale Wallets

predicting.top — Leaderboard of top Polymarket traders with wallet addresses
alphawhale.trade — Tools for copying and tracking top performers
Polymarket Leaderboard — Official rankings (requires account)

Quick Start (Ad-Hoc Usage)

User provides wallet(s) directly in chat:

text

User: "Copytrade this wallet: 0x1234...abcd"
User: "What positions does 0x5678...efgh have?"
User: "Follow these whales: 0xaaa..., 0xbbb..."

→ Run with --wallets flag:

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x1234...abcd
python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0xaaa...,0xbbb... --dry-run

This is the simplest way - no setup needed, just pass wallets directly.

Persistent Setup (Optional)

For automated recurring scans, wallets can be saved in environment:

Setting	Environment Variable	Default
Target wallets	`SIMMER_COPYTRADING_WALLETS`	(none)
Top N positions	`SIMMER_COPYTRADING_TOP_N`	auto
Max per position	`SIMMER_COPYTRADING_MAX_USD`	50
Max trades/run	`SIMMER_COPYTRADING_MAX_TRADES`	10

Top N auto-calculation (when not specified):

Balance < $50: Top 5 positions
Balance $50-200: Top 10 positions
Balance $200-500: Top 25 positions
Balance $500+: Top 50 positions

Polymarket Constraints:

Minimum 5 shares per order
SDK enforces $1.00 minimum position value (filters dust positions)

⚠️ Start Conservative: Begin with small amounts (--max-usd 5-10) and --dry-run to understand how the skill behaves before scaling up.

How It Works

By default, only buys execute. Pass --rebalance to also sell positions the whales have exited, or --whale-exits to sell only on whale exits.

Each cycle the script:

Fetches positions from all target wallets via Simmer API
Combines using size-weighted aggregation (larger wallets = more influence)
Detects conflicts (one wallet long YES, another long NO) and skips those markets
Scores by conviction: positions held by 2+ wallets get full sizing, single-wallet positions get 50% sizing
Filters out drifted (>30% from entry) and stale (>90% or <10% price) positions
Applies Top-N filtering to concentrate on highest-conviction positions
Auto-imports missing markets from Polymarket
Calculates rebalance trades to match target allocations
Executes trades via Simmer SDK (respects spending limits)
Reports results back to user

$SIM Paper Trading

Copytrading supports $SIM mode — mirror whale positions using simulated money on Simmer's LMSR markets. No wallet or USDC required.

bash

# Paper trade with $SIM (explicit)
python copytrading_trader.py --venue sim --wallets 0x123... --live

# Auto-detect: if your account has no linked wallet, $SIM is used automatically
python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x123... --live

In $SIM mode:

Trades execute on Simmer's LMSR at real Polymarket prices
Each market gets an independent $10K $SIM balance
Positions tracked in your Simmer portfolio (source: sdk:copytrading)
Whale signals still come from real Polymarket data

Running the Skill

Run a scan (dry run by default — no trades):

bash

python copytrading_trader.py

Execute real trades:

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --live

Check positions only:

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --positions

View current config:

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --config

Override wallets for one run:

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x123...,0x456...

Full rebalance mode (includes sells):

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --rebalance

Sell when whales exit positions:

bash

python copytrading_trader.py --whale-exits

Reporting Results

After each run, message the user with:

Current configuration (wallets, Top N, max position)
Number of wallets fetched and total positions found
Markets skipped due to conflicts
Trades executed (or skipped with reason)
Current portfolio positions

Example output to share:

text

🐋 Copytrading Scan Complete

Configuration:
• Following 2 wallets
• Top 10 positions, max $50 each
• Balance: $250.00 USDC

Fetched positions:
• 0x1234...abcd: 15 positions
• 0x5678...efgh: 22 positions
• Combined: 28 unique markets
• Conflicts skipped: 2

Top 10 by allocation:
1. "Will BTC hit $100k?" - 18.5% → BUY YES
2. "Trump pardons X?" - 12.3% → BUY NO
3. "Fed rate cut Jan?" - 9.8% → Already held
...

Trades executed: 4 buys ($180 total)
• Bought 45 YES shares on "Will BTC hit $100k?" @ $0.82
• Bought 120 NO shares on "Trump pardons X?" @ $0.15
...

Next scan in 4 hours.

Example Conversations

User: "Copytrade 0x1234...abcd" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x1234...abcd → Report what positions that wallet has and what trades would execute

User: "What is 0x5678...efgh holding?" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x5678...efgh --dry-run → Show their positions without trading

User: "Follow these wallets: 0xaaa..., 0xbbb..., 0xccc..." → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0xaaa...,0xbbb...,0xccc... → Aggregate positions across all wallets, report results

User: "Copytrade this whale but only top 5 positions" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x... --top-n 5

User: "How are my positions doing?" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --positions → Show current Polymarket positions with P&L

User: "Show copytrading config" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --config → Display current settings

User: "Sell positions that whales have exited" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --whale-exits → Compares your positions to whales, sells any they've closed

User: "Do a full rebalance to match the whales" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --rebalance → Includes both buys AND sells to match whale allocations

Finding Good Wallets to Follow

Common approaches:

Leaderboard tracking: Check Polymarket leaderboards for consistent performers
Whale watchers: Follow known profitable traders on social media
Specific strategies: Follow wallets known for weather, politics, or crypto trades

The skill works best when:

Following 2-5 wallets with overlapping strategies (e.g. all politics-focused, or all crypto-focused)
Wallets have similar conviction — mixing very different traders means most positions only appear in one wallet and get reduced sizing (50%)
Wallets trade markets available on Polymarket

Conviction Tiers

When following multiple wallets, positions are scored by conviction:

High conviction (held by 2+ wallets): full position sizing (max_usd)
Low conviction (held by 1 wallet): 50% position sizing

High-conviction positions are prioritized in Top N selection. Single-wallet positions still trade, but with reduced size. Using just 1 wallet disables conviction scoring (all positions get full sizing).

Troubleshooting

"Order too small" / "below minimum (5)"

Polymarket requires minimum 5 shares per order
Increase --max-usd or reduce --top-n to concentrate into fewer positions

"No wallets specified"

Provide wallet addresses in your message, e.g., "copytrade 0x1234..."
Or set SIMMER_COPYTRADING_WALLETS environment variable for recurring scans

"Agent has no USDC balance"

Need USDC in your Polymarket wallet, or use --venue sim for $SIM paper trading
Check wallet is linked at simmer.markets/dashboard

"Conflict skipped"

Wallets disagree on this market (one long YES, other long NO)
Markets with net position < 10% are skipped

"All N positions filtered (X conflicts, Y drifted, Z stale)"

All whale positions were removed by safety filters
Try different target wallets, or reduce to 1 wallet to disable conviction scoring
Drift filter skips positions where price moved >30% from whale's entry
Stale filter skips near-resolved markets (price >90% or <10%)

"Insufficient balance"

Not enough USDC for all trades
Reduce SIMMER_COPYTRADING_TOP_N or SIMMER_COPYTRADING_MAX_USD

"Market could not be imported"

Some markets may not be importable (resolved, private, etc.)
These are skipped automatically

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>
Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"

Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC
If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry

Polymarket Copytrading

Install

Polymarket Copytrading

When to Use This Skill

Quick Commands

Finding Whale Wallets

Quick Start (Ad-Hoc Usage)

Persistent Setup (Optional)

How It Works

$SIM Paper Trading

Running the Skill

Reporting Results

Example Conversations

Finding Good Wallets to Follow

Conviction Tiers

Troubleshooting

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