Polymarket Sol 5m Mtf Momentum Dyll

Multi-timeframe CEX momentum trading for Polymarket BTC 5-minute fast markets. Aligns 1m/3m/5m Binance returns for directional conviction. Inspired by the

Security Scan

The skill's code, instructions, and required environment variables are coherent with its stated purpose (a Simmer-powered multi-timeframe momentum trading bot for SOL fast markets); nothing in the bundle appears to request unrelated secrets or contact unexpected endpoints.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (MTF momentum for Polymarket fast markets) align with what the files do: they fetch Binance klines, query Simmer fast markets, evaluate momentum, and post trades via the simmer SDK/API. Required env vars and config tunables (SIMMER_API_KEY, optional SIMMER_API_URL, TRADING_VENUE, and tunables) match the stated functionality.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md only directs installing simmer-sdk, setting SIMMER_API_KEY, running the provided Python scripts, and optionally cron scheduling. The runtime code reads Binance and Simmer APIs and local config; it does not access unrelated system files, network hosts, or other credentials beyond those declared.

Install Mechanism

No custom install script in the package itself; the manifest declares pip: simmer-sdk and SKILL.md instructs pip install simmer-sdk. Installing a third‑party pip package is a normal requirement for SDK-based skills but carries the usual supply-chain risk (verify simmer-sdk's source and package integrity).

Credentials

Only SIMMER_API_KEY (and optional SIMMER_API_URL / TRADING_VENUE) are used. Those are appropriate for a skill that calls the Simmer API and uses the simmer SDK. The code does not request unrelated tokens or filesystem paths.

Persistence & Privilege

always is false and the skill is user-invocable. The code imports load_config/update_config from simmer_sdk (to manage its own tunables/config), but it does not attempt to change other skills or system-wide settings. Cron in clawhub.json is expected for a periodic trading bot.

Assessment

This skill appears internally consistent and does what it says: it reads Binance klines, queries Simmer fast markets, and can place trades via the simmer SDK using SIMMER_API_KEY. Before running: (1) run in dry/paper mode first (the SKILL.md provides a dry-run), (2) review and verify the simmer-sdk package source (pip packages can contain arbitrary code), (3) confirm your SIMMER_API_KEY is scoped appropriately and stored securely, (4) do not run with --live until you have tested tuning and safeguards, and (5) consider limiting automated cron runs until you are comfortable with behavior and error handling.

SOL 5m MTF Momentum

⚡ This is a template. You must configure your SIMMER_API_KEY before running.

Raw CEX momentum → Polymarket alpha. When all timeframes align, the signal is undeniable.

This bot reads the battlefield in real-time — 1-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute Binance SOL/USDT returns voting on direction. When momentum converges across timeframes, it strikes. No hesitation, no second-guessing. Pure directional conviction deployed into Polymarket 5-minute fast markets.

Inspired by the #1 trader on the Simmer leaderboard — yanksie, who dominates BTC 5m markets with a 79% win rate across 4,000+ trades. The same multi-timeframe momentum principles applied to SOL. This foundation captures the core multi-timeframe momentum approach that drives that edge.

The Edge

Three timeframes. One direction. Maximum conviction.

• r1 (1m return) — noise filter, immediate pulse
• r3 (3m return) — trend confirmation
• r5 (5m return) — dominant signal, tiebreaker

Direction = majority vote. Confidence = signal-to-noise ratio scaled against recent volatility. The bot only fires when the math says go.

What This Is — And What It Isn't

This is the foundation. The confidence threshold (0.50) is intentionally detuned. Out of the box, it trades. But the real alpha comes from tuning:

• Confidence threshold — tighten it, raise your win rate
• Eval window timing — when in the 5-minute cycle to strike
• Additional gates — order book depth, CLOB flow confirmation, candle body analysis, regime detection

These gates and logic layers can dramatically improve WR beyond the foundation. They're left to the trader to implement. The Ferrari is in the garage — you bring the driving skills.

Setup

1. Install: pip install simmer-sdk
2. Set your API key: export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...
3. Dry run: python3 mtf_momentum.py
4. Go live: python3 mtf_momentum.py --live

Configuration

Parameter	Env Var	Default	Description
Confidence Min	SIMMER_MTF_CONF_MIN	0.50	Minimum confidence to trade
Confidence Scale	SIMMER_MTF_CONF_SCALE	2.1	Volatility scaling factor
Eval Min Age	SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MIN_AGE	90	Min market age (seconds)
Eval Max Age	SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MAX_AGE	180	Max market age (seconds)
Trade Size	SIMMER_MTF_TRADE_SIZE	10	Trade size in $SIM

Quick Commands

# Dry run (paper mode)
python3 mtf_momentum.py

# Live trading
python3 mtf_momentum.py --live

# Show current positions
python3 mtf_momentum.py --positions

# Show config
python3 mtf_momentum.py --config

# Tune confidence threshold
python3 mtf_momentum.py --set conf_min=0.65

# Check portfolio status
python3 scripts/status.py

Example Output

⚡ SOL 5m MTF Momentum
==================================================
  [PAPER MODE] Use --live for real trades.

  Config: conf_min=0.50 conf_scale=2.1 eval_window=90-180s size=$10

  Fetching SOL 5m fast markets...
  Found 2 active markets

  📊 SOL 5m — Will BTC go up in the next 5 minutes?
     Market age: 112s (in eval window)
     r1=+0.08% r3=+0.15% r5=+0.22% → UP (3/3 aligned)
     vol=0.0011 conf=0.94 ✅ TRADE
     → BUY YES $10.00 | reason: MTF momentum aligned UP (conf=0.94)
     ✅ Paper trade executed (12.5 shares)

  Summary: 1 signal, 1 trade

Troubleshooting

• "No active fast markets" — SOL 5m markets run on a schedule. Wait for the next cycle.
• "Market age outside eval window" — The bot only trades during the configured window (90-180s after market open). Adjust SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MIN_AGE / SIMMER_MTF_EVAL_MAX_AGE.
• "Confidence below threshold" — Momentum isn't strong enough. Lower SIMMER_MTF_CONF_MIN for more trades (lower WR) or wait for stronger signals.
• "simmer-sdk not installed" — Run pip install simmer-sdk.
• "SIMMER_API_KEY not set" — Get your key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab.

Cron

*/1 * * * * — runs every minute, checks market age, trades if in eval window.