Polymarket Micro Pulse Revert Trader

Trades mean-reversion on crypto 5-minute interval markets after detecting a single extreme probability pulse (p > 70% or p < 30%) on Polymarket.

Micro Pulse Revert Trader

This is a template. The default signal is single-pulse mean-reversion detection in 5-minute crypto Up/Down markets -- remix it with volume filters, multi-pulse confirmation, or cross-coin pulse clustering. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, interval parsing, pulse detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists "Bitcoin Up or Down", "Ethereum Up or Down", "Solana Up or Down", and "XRP Up or Down" markets for the same 5-minute windows throughout the day. When a single interval shows an extreme probability reading -- above 70% (extreme Up) or below 30% (extreme Down) -- retail conviction is overextended. The next interval tends to mean-revert rather than continue. The skill trades tiny amounts ($2-$10) on the next interval in the opposite direction.

Example: In the 10:05 AM ET window, BTC shows p=75% (extreme Up pulse, above PULSE_HIGH=0.70). The skill looks at the 10:10 AM window. If that next interval has p >= NO_THRESHOLD (0.58), it trades NO with conviction-scaled sizing. Pulse conviction = (0.75 - 0.70) / (1 - 0.70) = 0.167. Target conviction = (p - 0.58) / (1 - 0.58). Combined conviction averages both, producing a size between $2 and $10.

Edge

This is a MEAN-REVERSION play targeting retail overreaction in short-duration markets. When a 5-minute interval reaches extreme probability (>70% or <30%), it reflects a burst of one-sided retail flow. These extreme readings are unsustainable because the underlying crypto asset's 5-minute return distribution is roughly symmetric around 50% -- a 75% reading implies the market is pricing in a directional move that rarely materializes at that magnitude. The next interval resets as new participants enter without the same directional bias, and the extreme probability snaps back toward the mean.

Signal Logic

1. Discover active crypto Up/Down 5-minute markets via keyword search + get_markets(limit=200) fallback
2. Parse each question: extract coin (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP), date, and time window
3. Group intervals by (coin, date) and sort chronologically
4. Walk consecutive pairs: if interval[i] has p > PULSE_HIGH (default 0.70), it is an extreme Up pulse; if p < PULSE_LOW (default 0.30), it is an extreme Down pulse
5. After extreme Up pulse: trade the NEXT interval as NO (mean-revert down) if p >= NO_THRESHOLD or pulse is strong enough (p >= 0.48 and pulse >= 0.75)
6. After extreme Down pulse: trade the NEXT interval as YES (mean-revert up) if p <= YES_THRESHOLD or pulse is strong enough (p <= 0.52 and pulse <= 0.25)
7. Conviction combines pulse intensity AND target market position -- stronger pulse + better target price = higher conviction
8. Size by conviction, not flat amount -- micro sizing (MAX_POSITION=10)

Remix Signal Ideas

• Multi-pulse confirmation: Require 2 consecutive extreme intervals before trading the 3rd (stronger signal, fewer trades)
• Cross-coin pulse clustering: If BTC and ETH both pulse Up in the same window, increase conviction on all reversion trades
• Pulse magnitude tiers: Use graduated thresholds (70%, 80%, 90%) with increasing conviction multipliers for more extreme pulses
• Volume-weighted pulses: Only trigger on pulses backed by above-average Polymarket volume in that interval

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
python trader.py	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
python trader.py --live	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	10	Max USDC per trade at full conviction (micro)
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	2	Floor for any trade
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	1000	Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.12	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	0	Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day)
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	15	Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.42	Buy YES only if market probability <= this
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.58	Sell NO only if market probability >= this
SIMMER_PULSE_HIGH	0.70	Extreme Up pulse trigger (previous interval p > this)
SIMMER_PULSE_LOW	0.30	Extreme Down pulse trigger (previous interval p < this)

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk