Polymarket Copy Dynamic Roster Trader

Automatically discovers and ranks top Polymarket wallets from public leaderboards, evaluates rolling performance, and builds a dynamic copy roster. Feeds qualified wallets into Simmer SDK copytrading. Rotates in hot wallets and drops cold ones automatically.

Dynamic Roster Copytrader

This is a template. The default signal combines leaderboard discovery with rolling PnL evaluation to build a dynamic roster of top-performing wallets for copytrading. The skill handles all the plumbing (leaderboard scraping, wallet scoring, roster construction, copy execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha by tuning roster parameters.

Strategy Overview

Public leaderboards expose which Polymarket wallets are currently profitable. This skill automates the entire copytrading pipeline:

1. Discover top wallets from the predicting.top leaderboard
2. Score each wallet using SmartScore, win rate, and recent rolling PnL
3. Build a ranked roster of the best-performing wallets
4. Copy their positions via the Simmer SDK copytrading endpoint
5. Rotate the roster each run -- cold wallets drop out, hot newcomers get added

The Edge: Adaptive Wallet Selection

Most copytrading tools track a fixed list of wallets. This skill treats the roster as a living portfolio that adapts to who is performing right now.

Signal Logic

Leaderboard (30 wallets)
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    v
Evaluate each wallet:
  - SmartScore (from leaderboard)
  - Win rate (from leaderboard)
  - Rolling PnL (computed from data-api activity)
    |
    v
Combined score = 0.4 * norm_smart_score
               + 0.3 * norm_win_rate
               + 0.3 * norm_rolling_pnl
    |
    v
Sort by combined score, take top ROSTER_SIZE
Filter out wallets with rolling PnL < MIN_PNL
    |
    v
Feed roster into Simmer SDK copytrading endpoint
Validate each copy trade against conviction thresholds
Execute or skip based on market conditions

Why This Works

• Regime adaptation: Wallets that were profitable last month may be losing now. Rolling PnL captures recent performance, not lifetime averages.
• Multi-factor scoring: SmartScore alone can be gamed. Combining it with actual win rate and realized PnL gives a more robust ranking.
• Conviction filtering: Copy trades are validated against YES/NO threshold bands, preventing blind copying into overpriced or neutral markets.
• Whale exit detection: The copytrading endpoint flags when tracked wallets are exiting positions, allowing the skill to avoid catching falling knives.

Example Roster

#	Wallet	Score	WinRate	Rolling PnL	Status
1	0xabc12...	0.892	68.5%	$2,340	HOT
2	0xdef34...	0.845	65.2%	$1,890	HOT
3	0x789ab...	0.721	62.1%	$450	HOT
4	0xcde56...	0.698	59.8%	$120	WARM
5	0xfab78...	0.654	71.0%	$85	WARM

Safety

Guard	Default	What it does
Paper mode	ON	No --live flag = simulated trades, zero risk
MAX_POSITION	$50	Cap per-trade size
MIN_TRADE	$5	Floor prevents trivially small orders
MAX_POSITIONS	10	Portfolio-level position limit
MAX_SPREAD	10%	Skip illiquid markets
MIN_DAYS	3	Skip markets resolving too soon
YES/NO thresholds	0.38/0.62	Only copy trades within conviction bands
MIN_PNL	$0	Filter out wallets with negative recent PnL
COPY_MAX_USD	$50	Cap per copied position
COPY_MAX_TRADES	10	Limit trades per run to control exposure
buy_only	true	Only copies buy-side trades, no shorts
whale_exit_detect	true	Flags when wallets are exiting positions
context_ok()	ON	Prevents exceeding max open positions

Tunables

All parameters are configurable via SIMMER_* environment variables and the Simmer UI:

Env Var	Default	Description
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION	50	Max position size in USD
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE	5	Min trade size in USD
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME	3000	Min market volume in USD
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD	0.10	Max bid-ask spread
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS	3	Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS	10	Max open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD	0.38	YES threshold for conviction filter
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD	0.62	NO threshold for conviction filter
SIMMER_ROSTER_SIZE	5	Max wallets in active roster
SIMMER_MIN_PNL	0	Min rolling PnL to qualify for roster
SIMMER_COPY_MAX_USD	50	Max USD per copied position
SIMMER_COPY_MAX_TRADES	10	Max trades per run

Remix Ideas

• Category-specific rosters: Only copy wallets that are profitable in crypto markets, or sports, or politics
• Momentum overlay: Weight the combined score by how much a wallet's PnL has increased in the last 24h vs. 7d
• Anti-correlation filter: Avoid copying wallets that all hold the same positions (diversification)
• Decay weighting: Give more weight to recent trades vs. older ones in the rolling PnL calculation
• Exit signal: When a roster wallet exits a position you copied, auto-exit too
• Sharpe gating: Require a minimum Sharpe ratio to filter out lucky gamblers

Dependency

Requires simmer-sdk (pip install simmer-sdk) and a valid SIMMER_API_KEY.